Ok, update time.
Cable closed on stop on both positions - this made +955 on one position and +565 on position two
a total of +1520 pips.
Closed Results +2476 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Still running is USDCHF at +159 stop moving to 1.1870 to lock in some profit allbeit only a bit. Lets face it swissy has been shit.
Usdjpy still running also, moving stop on that to break even at 9764
audusd stop move to 0.6635.
everything looks ready to turn for a while so now holding back on new positions except for one - New order short USDCAD at 1.2080 IF SEEN 500 pips stop - order good till 7pm Friday.
everything else can wait a while
catch ya tomorrow
Monday, November 17, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
new week
Sunday night always a bit of a nail biter - will it gap? will it go my way?
well it didnt gap and all still going as expected.
usdcad still setting up for a potential 'fool me' trade, would need to drop from here and then go to 1.1300, long signal would be triggered at that level. - I'll explain it i it comes off next week.
It wouldnt suprise me this week if we did see more of the falling pound but you never know, cable is ready for some serious retracing back to 1.56 ish to test that level that stemmed the third fall. so would need some good news to make that happen. all the ellioticians are saying it was wave five, or is it the b move etc etc.
take my advice - all that is bollocks. just follow price and give it room. just learn to manage risk and forget the direction you want to choose - far too much time is spent on your 'system' or decision. learn to manage risk and you'll do ok.
So funny last week seeing Gordon Brown talk about tax cuts, the one man that made taking money out of your pocket without you knowing it asks for tax cuts - amazing!
Funny thing is he's going to borrow money to try to buy himself out of a recession. - another 20 billion or so to give you in tax cuts so you spend it - why not just not give it out and save it you fucking moron.
Let me ask you a question; if you were in a deep hole that was leaking shit from below that kept getting bigger and bigger - what would you need to get out? a bigger spade and some more digging so more shit an come in?
What a twat.
well it didnt gap and all still going as expected.
usdcad still setting up for a potential 'fool me' trade, would need to drop from here and then go to 1.1300, long signal would be triggered at that level. - I'll explain it i it comes off next week.
It wouldnt suprise me this week if we did see more of the falling pound but you never know, cable is ready for some serious retracing back to 1.56 ish to test that level that stemmed the third fall. so would need some good news to make that happen. all the ellioticians are saying it was wave five, or is it the b move etc etc.
take my advice - all that is bollocks. just follow price and give it room. just learn to manage risk and forget the direction you want to choose - far too much time is spent on your 'system' or decision. learn to manage risk and you'll do ok.
So funny last week seeing Gordon Brown talk about tax cuts, the one man that made taking money out of your pocket without you knowing it asks for tax cuts - amazing!
Funny thing is he's going to borrow money to try to buy himself out of a recession. - another 20 billion or so to give you in tax cuts so you spend it - why not just not give it out and save it you fucking moron.
Let me ask you a question; if you were in a deep hole that was leaking shit from below that kept getting bigger and bigger - what would you need to get out? a bigger spade and some more digging so more shit an come in?
What a twat.
Friday, November 14, 2008
end of week
stop on cable moved now to 1.5025, swissy moved to break even cos it's shit. no other changes. all to run over thge weekend unless stops hit tonight.
have a good weekend all
have a good weekend all
Thursday, November 13, 2008
update 2
wow what a day!
cable now dropping like a nutcase - 500 pip trail now in the same place on both positions. actually saw 1300+ pips on pos1 today and over 1000 on pos 2.
swissy looking crap still and usdjpy made a mean retrace. got a feeling that might die before morning as my stop is 9840. it came within 10 pips today.
hoping cable continues, stop currently 1.5063 on both positions. would think that cable is due a strong retrace but hey, dont catch a falling knife!
if nothing else happens now i've made my money for November and still two weeks to go. Fill ya boots as we say :)
no change on audusd
That's it, catch you soon.
cable now dropping like a nutcase - 500 pip trail now in the same place on both positions. actually saw 1300+ pips on pos1 today and over 1000 on pos 2.
swissy looking crap still and usdjpy made a mean retrace. got a feeling that might die before morning as my stop is 9840. it came within 10 pips today.
hoping cable continues, stop currently 1.5063 on both positions. would think that cable is due a strong retrace but hey, dont catch a falling knife!
if nothing else happens now i've made my money for November and still two weeks to go. Fill ya boots as we say :)
no change on audusd
That's it, catch you soon.
update
Mornin'
Cable steaming ahead now - position 1 is +1105 pips, poition 2 +721 pips, both full positions. 500pip trailer is holdin the stop at 1.5320, bit too close for my liking really, would have preferred 1.5520 to stay above yesterdays range but then it was a large day. will leave the 500 trail in.
Swissy is holding up the rear tho not doing much, don't know sometimes why i bother with swissy but it's 106 up - not far enough to move the stop yet.
usdjpy finally made it's move also +230 as i write. stop remains at 98.40 so no locked in profit yet.
audusd now 160 up on yesterdays new position, stop moved to 0.6735.
that's it, nothing new i want to risk.
this then is typical of a daily chart trader - last week we lost a few hundred pips - cant remember how many but around 400-500 pips in several trades. then you find good ones and ride em like a cowboy on a bronco. cable has been in since the 3rd nov so 10 days already but remember that was my second bite at cable.
so my impressive +1400 in 2 days score went down to 900, but now looking at +2000 in open trades. Providing you trade small enough and manage your risk then you can make good money even at a few dollars a pip.
That's it, off for the day - hope you have luck.
Closed Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Cable steaming ahead now - position 1 is +1105 pips, poition 2 +721 pips, both full positions. 500pip trailer is holdin the stop at 1.5320, bit too close for my liking really, would have preferred 1.5520 to stay above yesterdays range but then it was a large day. will leave the 500 trail in.
Swissy is holding up the rear tho not doing much, don't know sometimes why i bother with swissy but it's 106 up - not far enough to move the stop yet.
usdjpy finally made it's move also +230 as i write. stop remains at 98.40 so no locked in profit yet.
audusd now 160 up on yesterdays new position, stop moved to 0.6735.
that's it, nothing new i want to risk.
this then is typical of a daily chart trader - last week we lost a few hundred pips - cant remember how many but around 400-500 pips in several trades. then you find good ones and ride em like a cowboy on a bronco. cable has been in since the 3rd nov so 10 days already but remember that was my second bite at cable.
so my impressive +1400 in 2 days score went down to 900, but now looking at +2000 in open trades. Providing you trade small enough and manage your risk then you can make good money even at a few dollars a pip.
That's it, off for the day - hope you have luck.
Closed Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Update
Just my luck, gbpchf kept going! ahh well, can't win em all.
Cable now making it's money on two positions. Pos 1 is +600 and pos 2 +200 if 1.5250 goes we should be in clover for a while. stops moved to 1.5890 and a 500 pip trailing stop activated.
usdjpy isnt doing what i expect tho still hanging onto it - at the mo going from plus to minus hourly but still biased shorty. in fact i like it a lot so still chance to get in if you arent - stop is moved to 99.60
Swissy (usdchf) kicked in and is now long for small + numbers, stop remains at same level of 1.1670
New trade short audusd at 6562 stop at 7060 - that will make or break today or tomorrow.
that's enough trades in but for info a few 'fool me' trades are starting to setup. usdcad looks a good candidate - first a lift to a lower high, then a drop to 1.1300 to pull the suckers in short and go long at that level - classic 'fool me' trade if the lower high forms. there are quite a few of these setting up at the mo.
That's it for now, good luck!
Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Cable now making it's money on two positions. Pos 1 is +600 and pos 2 +200 if 1.5250 goes we should be in clover for a while. stops moved to 1.5890 and a 500 pip trailing stop activated.
usdjpy isnt doing what i expect tho still hanging onto it - at the mo going from plus to minus hourly but still biased shorty. in fact i like it a lot so still chance to get in if you arent - stop is moved to 99.60
Swissy (usdchf) kicked in and is now long for small + numbers, stop remains at same level of 1.1670
New trade short audusd at 6562 stop at 7060 - that will make or break today or tomorrow.
that's enough trades in but for info a few 'fool me' trades are starting to setup. usdcad looks a good candidate - first a lift to a lower high, then a drop to 1.1300 to pull the suckers in short and go long at that level - classic 'fool me' trade if the lower high forms. there are quite a few of these setting up at the mo.
That's it for now, good luck!
Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Thursday, November 06, 2008
fun time
ok, market beginning to make it's move so some trades to take
lets update whats running to start with
gbpusd - 2nd position now in so stop on all now at 1.6125. first position is almost 400 up but still nothing locked in on profit, hopefully tomorrow night can lock some in
gbpchf still short stop at 1.8829 so no profits locked yet
New Trade - USDJPY short @ 97.64 stop @ 101.25
That's enough running for now., very tempted to go short audjpy with a 350 pip stop so if youve nothing running you might like that one, nice 1000 pip target minimum at 3:1.
anyway, catch ya soon
lets update whats running to start with
gbpusd - 2nd position now in so stop on all now at 1.6125. first position is almost 400 up but still nothing locked in on profit, hopefully tomorrow night can lock some in
gbpchf still short stop at 1.8829 so no profits locked yet
New Trade - USDJPY short @ 97.64 stop @ 101.25
That's enough running for now., very tempted to go short audjpy with a 350 pip stop so if youve nothing running you might like that one, nice 1000 pip target minimum at 3:1.
anyway, catch ya soon
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
mistake
not very often a mistake goes in my favor - didnt place the stop any trades so all still running.
no changes tonight
cable stop is 1.6425 and not 6125 as prev stated - the 6125 is on the new position if it kicks in @5590
sorry for the confusion
no changes tonight
cable stop is 1.6425 and not 6125 as prev stated - the 6125 is on the new position if it kicks in @5590
sorry for the confusion
update
usdcad died so minus 100 on that one.
Cable went from +380 to -125 and now back again, this is the thing with longer term trading, especially in volatile times - you have to be able to ride the dragon sometimes.
I'm now moving the stop on cable to 1.6125 which reduces my risk to about 150 pips ish. I'm also going to place a second position on in the form of a breakout order so short gbpusd @1.5590 if seen
new trade also short gbpchf @1.8584, may also add to this position if 1.8320 is broken. stop is at 1.8750.
Results +871 Pips since Oct 23rd
ps, canx audusd order
Cable went from +380 to -125 and now back again, this is the thing with longer term trading, especially in volatile times - you have to be able to ride the dragon sometimes.
I'm now moving the stop on cable to 1.6125 which reduces my risk to about 150 pips ish. I'm also going to place a second position on in the form of a breakout order so short gbpusd @1.5590 if seen
new trade also short gbpchf @1.8584, may also add to this position if 1.8320 is broken. stop is at 1.8750.
Results +871 Pips since Oct 23rd
ps, canx audusd order
Monday, November 03, 2008
update
cable off an running , currently +200
New order placed on audusd short if 0.6536 seen half position
taking a low risk long on usd cad with 100 pip stop from 1.1825 - potential is 12:1 rr so worth the risk.
chfjpy look interesting for a break below 8350 but got enough running now.
check back for update tomorrow
New order placed on audusd short if 0.6536 seen half position
taking a low risk long on usd cad with 100 pip stop from 1.1825 - potential is 12:1 rr so worth the risk.
chfjpy look interesting for a break below 8350 but got enough running now.
check back for update tomorrow
dead
euraud dead - minus 400 pips but half position so -200
Cumulitive Results +971 Pips since Oct 23rd
order placed to short cable at 1.5970, apart from that standing aside for a while
Cumulitive Results +971 Pips since Oct 23rd
order placed to short cable at 1.5970, apart from that standing aside for a while
Friday, October 31, 2008
new trade
cable about to die i think but still there as i write
looking like returns to trend could be in so taking a half position long on euraud from 1.9215 with a 400 pip stop.
this is a low risk trade with upside potential of 1500 pips or more. good risk reward is the key to trading and staying in the game, as I said before I do have a fair few losers trrading this way but the winners far outweigh the losers.
there, cable dead at -200 as i write
Cumulitive Results +1171 Pips since Oct 23rd
looking like returns to trend could be in so taking a half position long on euraud from 1.9215 with a 400 pip stop.
this is a low risk trade with upside potential of 1500 pips or more. good risk reward is the key to trading and staying in the game, as I said before I do have a fair few losers trrading this way but the winners far outweigh the losers.
there, cable dead at -200 as i write
Cumulitive Results +1171 Pips since Oct 23rd
Thursday, October 30, 2008
new trade
Taking a flyer on cable long - just putting a toe in the water to see if things are truly turning.
Long at 1.6377 with a 200 pip stop at 1.6277
time for a retrace it may be but i'm not fully confident yet. a single trade may get the ball rolling if it is truly a turn around. tomorrow will tell - might be looking for something else if this turns good.
Long at 1.6377 with a 200 pip stop at 1.6277
time for a retrace it may be but i'm not fully confident yet. a single trade may get the ball rolling if it is truly a turn around. tomorrow will tell - might be looking for something else if this turns good.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
nothing doing
think i'll leaave it for a few days - market is in flux so nothing is a safe trade.
was tempted to short gbpchf with around a 200 pip stop but leaving it, everything looks to be retracing and possibly turning. Only need a few good trades a month to make a good living and october is taken care of so no rush.
Have fun
was tempted to short gbpchf with around a 200 pip stop but leaving it, everything looks to be retracing and possibly turning. Only need a few good trades a month to make a good living and october is taken care of so no rush.
Have fun
and the next
AUDCHF also gone now on stop
shorted 0.7793 closed at 0.7325 result 468 pips
Cumulitive Results +1371 Pips since Oct 23rd
all trades closed, nothing new remotely intresting as yet.
check back tomorrow
shorted 0.7793 closed at 0.7325 result 468 pips
Cumulitive Results +1371 Pips since Oct 23rd
all trades closed, nothing new remotely intresting as yet.
check back tomorrow
Monday, October 27, 2008
one down ...
one down then - EURAUD was taken out by 3 pips at the stop
entry 1.9277 stopped out 2.0180 result +903 pips
AUDCHF still running no change to stop
Cumulitive Results +903 Pips since Oct 23rd
entry 1.9277 stopped out 2.0180 result +903 pips
AUDCHF still running no change to stop
Cumulitive Results +903 Pips since Oct 23rd
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Stops move
Stops moving on both open positions then
AUDCHF is now +330 ish - stop moved to break even
EURAUD is now +730 stop moving to 1.9180 - still leaving around a 100 pip risk on this trade
the audcadI was observing has now started to move so will see where it sits tonight, a retrace back to 8300 by close will see me consider an entry.
Nice overnight trades running there.
Have a good day all :)
AUDCHF is now +330 ish - stop moved to break even
EURAUD is now +730 stop moving to 1.9180 - still leaving around a 100 pip risk on this trade
the audcadI was observing has now started to move so will see where it sits tonight, a retrace back to 8300 by close will see me consider an entry.
Nice overnight trades running there.
Have a good day all :)
Thursday, October 23, 2008
new trade
Ok, just taken a new trade - taking this one small because of the recent volatility on this pair - just $1 per pip.
Last time i took this two weeks ago it netted over $1500 at $1 a pip so worth doing.
Long EURAUD 1.9277 stop at 1.8880 - almost 400 pips. I think we will either see new highs or it will correct back down to the 1.81 area. 400 pips risk for a potential 2000+ pip gain means a 5:1 rr ratio.
lets see.
keeping an eye on audcad for a return to trend (short) as it's currently testing previous support around 0.8400. not taking it yet though, will watch tomorrow morning and tomorrow night.
2nd trade is short AUDCHF from 7793 stop 7925 target new lows. $2 per pip
PS, as you see these trades take shape you will see quite a few losers - but when they win they typically win big. all trade sizes mentioned are for a typical $10k account.
The market may be going into a flux state as i call it where it's undecided - at these times i typically take small positions just to get in the potential trades - if i get two or three losers then i'll sit back and wait a while.
You'll get used to these periods as we go on.
Fingers Crossed then.
Last time i took this two weeks ago it netted over $1500 at $1 a pip so worth doing.
Long EURAUD 1.9277 stop at 1.8880 - almost 400 pips. I think we will either see new highs or it will correct back down to the 1.81 area. 400 pips risk for a potential 2000+ pip gain means a 5:1 rr ratio.
lets see.
keeping an eye on audcad for a return to trend (short) as it's currently testing previous support around 0.8400. not taking it yet though, will watch tomorrow morning and tomorrow night.
2nd trade is short AUDCHF from 7793 stop 7925 target new lows. $2 per pip
PS, as you see these trades take shape you will see quite a few losers - but when they win they typically win big. all trade sizes mentioned are for a typical $10k account.
The market may be going into a flux state as i call it where it's undecided - at these times i typically take small positions just to get in the potential trades - if i get two or three losers then i'll sit back and wait a while.
You'll get used to these periods as we go on.
Fingers Crossed then.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Hi all
Hi everyone.
Seen a few questions around so thought i'd chat.
No, I have not blown my account however i did have a hard time for the last few months - heck if leahmans can die then what chance do we have eh?
I lost some accounts too (clients) but i did expect that and am sad that it happened.
Life goes on though I've pulled back in October creating a large gain but i'm not going to start harping on and telling you how much because it's pointless and no-one would believe it anyway.
Im now trading daily charts on longer term trades and have done very well. Im in several positions at the mo but won't tell you what they are as they are already running.
I will however from now on for a while post any new trades i take for your entertainment so keep an eye on the blog if you want a laugh.
I'm now in another business also completely removed from trading and that is taking up a lot of my time so daily charts are really the only way i can go.
I could never do them before because i was sat here all day and i'd just fiddle with trades. Now i'm not here i just take em at night around 11pm or in the morning around 7am and dont see them until the next check, they win or lose.
Anyway, time will tell as i'll report em here as we go on. Might be a while though because i'm in five trades as we stand.
catch you soon.
Seen a few questions around so thought i'd chat.
No, I have not blown my account however i did have a hard time for the last few months - heck if leahmans can die then what chance do we have eh?
I lost some accounts too (clients) but i did expect that and am sad that it happened.
Life goes on though I've pulled back in October creating a large gain but i'm not going to start harping on and telling you how much because it's pointless and no-one would believe it anyway.
Im now trading daily charts on longer term trades and have done very well. Im in several positions at the mo but won't tell you what they are as they are already running.
I will however from now on for a while post any new trades i take for your entertainment so keep an eye on the blog if you want a laugh.
I'm now in another business also completely removed from trading and that is taking up a lot of my time so daily charts are really the only way i can go.
I could never do them before because i was sat here all day and i'd just fiddle with trades. Now i'm not here i just take em at night around 11pm or in the morning around 7am and dont see them until the next check, they win or lose.
Anyway, time will tell as i'll report em here as we go on. Might be a while though because i'm in five trades as we stand.
catch you soon.
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Delta 7 Gains 21% for April!
The Delta 7 managed account has produced superb results for April 2008 continuing the account highs for another month.
March losses were smashed and a great gain on top - this often happens after losing months.
Expected shocks in the banking sector did not happen and as such we had smoother runs without opposing forces changing direction and shaking us out of trades.
The average gain of managed accounts this month under Delta 7 was 21% This would show as a gain of $21,000 on a standard 100k account. This gain is based on conservative leverage of just 3:1 which is within most clients comfort zone.
For 2008 the returns so far are 30.5 % gross compounded one of the best available in the forex sector
Delta 7 is still available as an investment vehicle which is operated under a personal POA document and tended to individually. This means that the program can be tailored to suit your level of risk/reward comfort level.
For full information on the program or if you have specific questions then just contact me.
Soultrader.
email managed "at" simpleforexsystems.com
skype: search for 'soultrader desktop'
Friday, April 04, 2008
Managed Accounts - March
Before the managed accounts report just to let you know that there is now a voice chat room for serious traders who like a bit of company during the trading day. - hope to see some of you in there http://squawkbox.ivocalize.net/
A lot of people lost their shirts last month. Hedge funds crashing all over the place, Banks in meltdown, Bear stearns almost going to the wall etc and many traders have been unable to manage risk and are in big trouble.
Delta 7 made a small loss in March of around 7%. The volatility in the markets gave us trends to make money but that same volatility often triggered our safety stops. In a strong trend our stops remain untouched but these moves although strong also have opposite moves just as strong. as such we were unable to ride these trends and instead opted for safety and avoid excessive loss.
This is the first loss on Delta 7 since May 2007 and so is not to be viewed as a system problem.
Figures above based on 3:1 leverage.
Leverage can be customised to fit client risk appetite for an illustration
of various risk levels please email
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
A lot of people lost their shirts last month. Hedge funds crashing all over the place, Banks in meltdown, Bear stearns almost going to the wall etc and many traders have been unable to manage risk and are in big trouble.
Delta 7 made a small loss in March of around 7%. The volatility in the markets gave us trends to make money but that same volatility often triggered our safety stops. In a strong trend our stops remain untouched but these moves although strong also have opposite moves just as strong. as such we were unable to ride these trends and instead opted for safety and avoid excessive loss.
This is the first loss on Delta 7 since May 2007 and so is not to be viewed as a system problem.
| | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
| J | | 2.0 | -2.7 | 9.3 | 6.7 |
| F | | -7.2 | 12.0 | -3.4 | 7.7 |
| M | | 12.4 | 9.1 | -10.3 | -6.1 |
| A | | 6.3 | 10.6 | -1.6 | |
| M | | -6.1 | 22.7 | -7.0 | |
| J | | -2.1 | 3.3 | 0.3 | |
| J | | 22 | 13.9 | 0.6 | |
| A | 3.2 | 1.8 | -4 | 9.8 | |
| S | 13.5 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 11.8 | |
| O | 5.1 | -6.3 | 13.8 | 0 | |
| N | 1.4 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 7.6 | |
| D | 9.0 | 5.0 | -11.1 | 5.6 | |
| Tot | 36.4 | 49.8 | 126.8 | 22.3 | |
Figures above based on 3:1 leverage.
Leverage can be customised to fit client risk appetite for an illustration
of various risk levels please email
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Managed Forex Accounts Update
Sorry for the lack of updates of late. Just been so busy with stuff like signing up with a new capital management company in the states etc.
Account wise i didnt do so well in the back end of 2007 - there were no large losses or anything, just no good gainers. November had a single digit percentage loss and december had very small losses also.
Cyborg was not performing as expected and so I took the decision to reccomend my clients to move the account onto my more successful and sedate Delta 7 programme before it eats away at the gains from August.
Delta 7 has much more historical trading and is my 'workhorse' trading method. Until recently i was tied to using this only with a single investment house in the USA but have since negotiated the right to place my own clients on the programme.
This past month Delta 7 produced 7.7% gain on the month which is about average for the method traded at a modest 3:1 leverage.
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Account wise i didnt do so well in the back end of 2007 - there were no large losses or anything, just no good gainers. November had a single digit percentage loss and december had very small losses also.
Cyborg was not performing as expected and so I took the decision to reccomend my clients to move the account onto my more successful and sedate Delta 7 programme before it eats away at the gains from August.
Delta 7 has much more historical trading and is my 'workhorse' trading method. Until recently i was tied to using this only with a single investment house in the USA but have since negotiated the right to place my own clients on the programme.
This past month Delta 7 produced 7.7% gain on the month which is about average for the method traded at a modest 3:1 leverage.
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Free MT4 Indicator for ya
Hi all,
I've got hold of lots of software for traders using Metatrader 4.
One in particular i've wrote myself :)
it's an info indicator - shows on the chart the swap rate long and short, the pip value per lot, the daily ranges, auto calculates the 2% rule and even gives the high and low for the day. I find it very useful.
If you would like a free copy of it and maybe some other stuff in the future then just send an email to forextraders 'at' getresponse.com sorry I cant give a link but the spambots pick em up like crazy.
I've got hold of lots of software for traders using Metatrader 4.
One in particular i've wrote myself :)
it's an info indicator - shows on the chart the swap rate long and short, the pip value per lot, the daily ranges, auto calculates the 2% rule and even gives the high and low for the day. I find it very useful.
If you would like a free copy of it and maybe some other stuff in the future then just send an email to forextraders 'at' getresponse.com sorry I cant give a link but the spambots pick em up like crazy.
Monday, November 05, 2007
October 2007 Comments and Managed Account Report.
For three weeks of the month I was unwell, with quite a lot of time spent at hospital.
The month finished off with a net loss of 10.3%.
In the second week of the month the mid term trends began to change to short and then changed back again to longs. As a trend trader I was trading short when it flipped long again and hence suffered the losses you see on accounts. The drawdowns were in accordance with the figures previously agreed and are acceptable.
Then there was almost two weeks on non trading whilst I was ill and tradingbegan properly again last week. Unfortunately the two weeks of non-trades meant I was unable to pull back the months figures in time for month end. I will not increase risk just for the monthly pay packet.
Since trading recommenced accounts have been steadily building and had I used the same leverage we would be back to break even for the month. However as the market was clearly in a state of confusion I took the decision to reduce leverage to safeguard capital.
The Coming Month.
At the moment many currency pairs are ready for a good retrace. Of course this doesn’t mean they will retrace but it does mean that we are at a higher risk than when our ideal conditions are met.
For the first two weeks of the month I expect to be short term trading again or even not trading whilst looking for the longer trades to appearSome trades will develop early but I think the main bulk of the months trades may take a while to form.
If clients have any questions I am available as always via skype, phone or email.
From The Desk Of ...
Soultrader
Friday, September 28, 2007
September Comments
Managed Account Report
The first two weeks of the month were quiet for me with a steady decline into a drawdown of around 14%. markets were consolodating and doing nothing really.
The woes of the Sub Prime mortgage fiasco changed all that in week 3 with the virtual collapse of Northern Rock (NRK). Britains 2nd largest mortgage provider.
same old story as before, they were suffering liquidity problems all because of these clever American companies who thought it would be good to lend money to people who had no chance of paying it back.
Northern rock suffered first because mortgages were just about the only sector they were in - others have insurance business to fall back on. The bubble burst when the Bank Of England blew the whistle and told the world they had extended credit to NRK as the 'lender of last resort' - basically the death knell.
This of course caused widespread panic in the money markets this side of the pond.
Strangely enough I didnt make that much from the NRK effect but it did jolly up the markets enough for us to turn a healthy profit by month end.
The Coming Month.
I'm predicting yet more shocks in the market, in fact I think this sub prime effect will last into the new year - which is great news for us, bad news for the banks and hedge funds.
My methods thrive on volatility and we have that in spades at the moment, bring it on!
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
The first two weeks of the month were quiet for me with a steady decline into a drawdown of around 14%. markets were consolodating and doing nothing really.
The woes of the Sub Prime mortgage fiasco changed all that in week 3 with the virtual collapse of Northern Rock (NRK). Britains 2nd largest mortgage provider.
same old story as before, they were suffering liquidity problems all because of these clever American companies who thought it would be good to lend money to people who had no chance of paying it back.
Northern rock suffered first because mortgages were just about the only sector they were in - others have insurance business to fall back on. The bubble burst when the Bank Of England blew the whistle and told the world they had extended credit to NRK as the 'lender of last resort' - basically the death knell.
This of course caused widespread panic in the money markets this side of the pond.
Strangely enough I didnt make that much from the NRK effect but it did jolly up the markets enough for us to turn a healthy profit by month end.
The Coming Month.
I'm predicting yet more shocks in the market, in fact I think this sub prime effect will last into the new year - which is great news for us, bad news for the banks and hedge funds.
My methods thrive on volatility and we have that in spades at the moment, bring it on!
September Results:
Increase Percentage: 20.2%
Individual accounts may vary based on client’s comfort level of risk
The monitor account updates every hour and is live for the current month - you can see the last update time in the top right corner Have a look at it herePlease email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
August 2007 Comments
Managed Account Report.
I currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
August was unusually active. One week of this month was an anomaly due to the shocks in the sub prime motgage sector and it’s good to see an interesting August (a month usually devoid of strong trends due to trader holidays)
At a time when many were losing money hand over fist the small trader had an advantage. A hedge fund or bank cannot just dump a position in which they have been building for many months. It’s not easy to drop some billions into the market without it dropping like a lead baloon.
Smaller traders have the advantage in these moves as they can get in and out at will without the disadvantage of having to unwind large positions. Remember, when banks and hedge funds are losing money someone is always on the other side of those trades.
The turmoil in week 2 resulted in a drawdown bigger than expected along with a profit bigger than expected – rather strange to have both inside a week. Please note though that the figures for drawdown are misleading this month as when I was in drawdown on closed trades I had open trades of twice the drawdown level in positive. Therefore my system shutdown level of 45% was not initiated.
The longer term trend following aspect of the programme had great gains followed by a significant drawdown, whilst the shorter term trend aspect had massive gains previously unseen.
All my previous personal records were broken this month:
- Biggest ever single trade – 1287 pips AUDJPY
- biggest day 3531 pips on closed trades,
- biggest week 4480 pips on closed trades 13-17 aug 2007
Clearly I do not expect this kind of performance every month, but once every three years or so this kind of situation presents itself. The last time this kind of action happened was in December of 2004. And I was ready for it then too making my previous records of 485 pips in a day and 1856 in a week. Now smashed.
The Coming Month:
I see September as continuing the volatility and with increased risk. To cope with this my leverage will be reduced to protect assets from large swings into drawdown.
I have also initiated a new limit on exposure. For this month I may have a maximum of three positions on any single currency – so for example three yen trades, three usd trades etc – think about this – what this means is that usdjpy is 1 usd trade AND 1 jpy trade – this will limit my exposure to risk.
as for the fundamentals, well think of it this way - the fed providing liquidity and cheap loans will not in any way change the fact that hedge funds and banks aroiund the world are overexposed to debt from the sub prime sector. it may be just a temporary repreive.
On saying that all this debt exposure could just be rumour - and we know what rumour can do - sell the rumour and buy the fact.
In reality I don't give a toss about news items or alerts. If the market moves I will be moving with it in whatever direction it goes. If i am the wrong way around then i will soon be shaken out of the trade and going the other way. Thats what we trend followers do, we don't predict or make the trend we just follow it.
August Results
Individual accounts may vary based on client’s comfort level of risk
The monitor account updates every hour and is live for the current month - you can see the last update time in the top right corner Have a look at it hereI currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Managed accounts
For those interested in my managed accounts and the performance.
At the end of june I began trading an account as I would the managed accounts so i have a record.
This is a real money account that started off at around $6,000 at the end of June 2007.
The account updates every hour and is live - you can see the last update time in the top right corner. Have a look at it here
I currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
At the end of june I began trading an account as I would the managed accounts so i have a record.
This is a real money account that started off at around $6,000 at the end of June 2007.
The account updates every hour and is live - you can see the last update time in the top right corner. Have a look at it here
I currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Questions:
Following my post on The Grailtrading Blog i've been asked some questions. I'd rather post the answers here if I may because i want to leave that blog as a bit of history now :)
Afraid not JK, all sorted now anyways and all parties happy.
Sgguy: It's been a real pleasure following your blog Soul......here's wishing you the best in your future.
Thanks very much SG Guy, stuff will continue over in this blog
15 Aug 07, 02:31
jay: excellent lessons to have passed on soul - can you divulge any more of the legal stuff now? Cheers JKAfraid not JK, all sorted now anyways and all parties happy.
Sgguy: It's been a real pleasure following your blog Soul......here's wishing you the best in your future.
Thanks very much SG Guy, stuff will continue over in this blog
Now there is a great question, allow me to share my thoughts with you The answer to that is kinda No. the first tests we did had to be conducted on an MT3 platform and even today that gives us the most accurate results. Eventually we managed to get the MT4 backtester working well enough to trust the results, but it's only been that way since around November 2006. even then it had to be a specific broker (Mig) and specific backtest data (alpari data dump). this was because the alpari timeframe matched that of Mig and that Mig is the only broker i would trust to deliver accurate real time data. So many of the others have many missing bars and ticks - just look at a one minute chart on most brokers and see the missing bars - this affects indicators an amazing amount. Mig has the least number of missing bars consistently. Then the programming had to be perfect. im talking about us making sure each line of code was needed and worked right - it must have taken us 3 months just to get the expert working good enough to backtest and at that we had professional programmers on board. eventually yes, the MT4 backtester was reasonably accurate - well, but that i mean within about 5% of reality. of course we had to verify this by eye to confirm before we could do any simulation tests - we eye tested every single trade for four years of data and can confirm that mig ran with alpari 1 min back data is accurate to about 95% - but note, the 5% is quite a difference, and it's always 5% worse in real life, not better :) Suggestion to those looking into backtesting would be to buy the new book The Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods That Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders  It has an excellent part about backtesting and the effect of randomness on a trading system - made me open my eyes i can tell you.The rest of the book is excellent also. |
19 Aug 07, 22:59 dan: soul its great the way you are trying to help people understand what went wrong with the grail are you working on anything new thats looks promising best regardsHi Dan, thanks very much for the comments, just hope it's useful to you. Yes, good things happening right now and very happy. Grail took some time to get over emotionally and it took about 6 months. Recently been working on a system which is really great, getting back into my trend following roots and doing really well. That strategy netted me over 4000 pips last week! That was of course not the norm, was because of the sub prime thing, but it was nice to break personal records of 1 week and 1 day closes. My previous best was in December 2004 when i closed 485 pips in a single day and did 1890 pips in a week. This time is closed over 3300 pips in a single day and almost 4500 in a single week. More than the grail system made over two years in a single week! I just wish that i had been in the position i was in 8 months ago where I was trading 125 lots of client money and £120 per pip of my own - now that would've been some party! The system is robust now and is producing better returns than grail at half the previous leverage and I've recently setup an agreement with a broker to handle managed accounts myself rather than through the company I worked with before. My first client with $70,000 will be depositing in the next 2 weeks so all looking good to go. I'm also trading on Zulutrade.com properley now so you can watch the performance over there - just look for the soultrader account. Thanks everyone for your thoughts, keep the comments coming |
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Update
Hi all,
Thought i'd give you an update on what im doing.
Grail is still trading as a basket and just trickling along, not winning but not losing either, kinda stagnant.
The markets as a whole have constricted into much smaller daily ranges which makes it difficult for an intraday trend trading strategy to make money - that's why grail is struggling still.
My own trading has now taken a suprising turn. I started trading a mean reversion strategy taking 2-10 pips out of the market per trade 3 or 4 times a day.
I had an amazing run of 67 winning trades on the trot - sounds good eh?
Not so, the trouble with mean reversion is that you add to losing trades in the misguided hope that price will revert back to the mean.
A single trade wiped out those 67 wins and more besides. so much for a great strategy eh!
So, i'm back doing what i do best - Trend following. I used to do nothing but trend following on the dow jones and did pretty well and now it's back as my main trading system albeit on a longer term view.
My belief has always been that you cant make serious money in this game unless you let your profitable trades run and run.
Those who used to frequent the moneytec chat room back in 2004 will know that i would hold onto a trade for grim death, trailing the stop unti the trend was truly exhausted. - my motto was 'never take a profit manually, always let the stop take you out'. It served me well being the only person on there to take over 230 pips from a single one minute trade!
So, I'm back onto this but with a twist. Im now trend following using a four hour and a daily chart. I dont look any lower than that and so far i'm starting to get the feeling back that i'm in control.
Now just because i say 'you cant make money taking small profits' doesnt mean it's true. After all i don't know what i don't know and I have known people that make lots of money from small scalp trades - BBMac being one such outstanding trader and just about the only person i know that can make money from scalping.
Personally though I cannot, no matter what i try i cannot make money from small market moves.
So, you may ask why have i gone to longer term trading - the answer is simple. When we were flying high with grail the daily range of cable was usually around 110 - 150 pips per day - an average of around 138.
The last time the ranges were like this was in the back end of 2006 and they are just compressing and compressing. Grail was an intraday strategy which exploited trends but you cant exploit a trend on a daily basis when the market is only moving 70 pips or so and your system is designed to exploit a 130 pip range market.
So, what's to do - easy - extend the time of the trade so that you arent restricted by the daily range. and that's exactly what ive done.
I have trades running today that i opened last wednesday and are still running. They are with trend and are doing well. I have had losers, but they are closed quickly for small losses like 30 or 40 pips and the winners just run and run. Cad is being very good to me at the moment coupled with the dollar and aud - in total im almost 200 pips up on each trade.
Im trading flat money on each trade but can take multiple trades. For example a $10,000 account would allow you to have up to 10 trades at $1 a pip or 5 trades at $2 a pip. I generally have quite large stops to begin with but because the amount traded is small relative to the account size then it is very comfortable.
So, that's what im doing - just following the trend. I don't predict, i dont pick tops or bottoms, i just wait for it moving and hop on board until it stops. I have no idea when it will stop but whilstever its moving there is no reason to get out.
That's my reccomendation to you if you are struggling at the mo. stop fighting the flow and just slip into it. I couldnt believe the amount of money that has been buying into USDCAD this week - whilst all the time it's dropping like a stone.
People who pick bottoms get stinky fingers as an old friend Brad used to say :)
Thought i'd give you an update on what im doing.
Grail is still trading as a basket and just trickling along, not winning but not losing either, kinda stagnant.
The markets as a whole have constricted into much smaller daily ranges which makes it difficult for an intraday trend trading strategy to make money - that's why grail is struggling still.
My own trading has now taken a suprising turn. I started trading a mean reversion strategy taking 2-10 pips out of the market per trade 3 or 4 times a day.
I had an amazing run of 67 winning trades on the trot - sounds good eh?
Not so, the trouble with mean reversion is that you add to losing trades in the misguided hope that price will revert back to the mean.
A single trade wiped out those 67 wins and more besides. so much for a great strategy eh!
So, i'm back doing what i do best - Trend following. I used to do nothing but trend following on the dow jones and did pretty well and now it's back as my main trading system albeit on a longer term view.
My belief has always been that you cant make serious money in this game unless you let your profitable trades run and run.
Those who used to frequent the moneytec chat room back in 2004 will know that i would hold onto a trade for grim death, trailing the stop unti the trend was truly exhausted. - my motto was 'never take a profit manually, always let the stop take you out'. It served me well being the only person on there to take over 230 pips from a single one minute trade!
So, I'm back onto this but with a twist. Im now trend following using a four hour and a daily chart. I dont look any lower than that and so far i'm starting to get the feeling back that i'm in control.
Now just because i say 'you cant make money taking small profits' doesnt mean it's true. After all i don't know what i don't know and I have known people that make lots of money from small scalp trades - BBMac being one such outstanding trader and just about the only person i know that can make money from scalping.
Personally though I cannot, no matter what i try i cannot make money from small market moves.
So, you may ask why have i gone to longer term trading - the answer is simple. When we were flying high with grail the daily range of cable was usually around 110 - 150 pips per day - an average of around 138.
The last time the ranges were like this was in the back end of 2006 and they are just compressing and compressing. Grail was an intraday strategy which exploited trends but you cant exploit a trend on a daily basis when the market is only moving 70 pips or so and your system is designed to exploit a 130 pip range market.
So, what's to do - easy - extend the time of the trade so that you arent restricted by the daily range. and that's exactly what ive done.
I have trades running today that i opened last wednesday and are still running. They are with trend and are doing well. I have had losers, but they are closed quickly for small losses like 30 or 40 pips and the winners just run and run. Cad is being very good to me at the moment coupled with the dollar and aud - in total im almost 200 pips up on each trade.
Im trading flat money on each trade but can take multiple trades. For example a $10,000 account would allow you to have up to 10 trades at $1 a pip or 5 trades at $2 a pip. I generally have quite large stops to begin with but because the amount traded is small relative to the account size then it is very comfortable.
So, that's what im doing - just following the trend. I don't predict, i dont pick tops or bottoms, i just wait for it moving and hop on board until it stops. I have no idea when it will stop but whilstever its moving there is no reason to get out.
That's my reccomendation to you if you are struggling at the mo. stop fighting the flow and just slip into it. I couldnt believe the amount of money that has been buying into USDCAD this week - whilst all the time it's dropping like a stone.
People who pick bottoms get stinky fingers as an old friend Brad used to say :)
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Valius
valius:
soul, how do you manage with winning streaks. i mean, when there comes 20 winning trades in a row, how do you fight with the feeling that finally you found the holy grail? Thank You.
Hi Vallius, thanks for popping in.
Firstly the answer to your question lies in your testing.
Let me explain.
I dont know if you've ever seen the 'Firebird' strategy. Its an expert advisor for metatrader which takes small profits with hugh stops - in fact in some cases with no stops. Last time I checked this thing took 6 pips on winning trades and lost 300 pips on losing trades.
For that to make money you have to have something like a 99% win/loss ratio to make money - ie in 100 trades you make 99 X 6 pips but one loser X300 pips = 294 pips profit per 100 trades - just one trade less winning equals disaster - 98 X6 pips = 588 pips but 2 losers = 600 pips.
People are often drawn by these strategies because they hardly ever lose - however the real drawdown is in the open positions and people who trade these often just cannot face taking a loss. You can run with this whilstever you have money in your account but it's not a sustainable strategy in my opinion, however i could be wrong and often am.
So, back to your question.
If you come across something that has 20 wins on the trot then keep testing it till you have a good sample size - I tend to work on a sample size of around 600 to 1000 trades for 'one a day' trades - 400 for swing trades but nothing lower than that. if the figures look good after that then I would have initial confidence in the system. Just dont get excited by 20 trades :)
Hope this helps
soul, how do you manage with winning streaks. i mean, when there comes 20 winning trades in a row, how do you fight with the feeling that finally you found the holy grail? Thank You.
Hi Vallius, thanks for popping in.
Firstly the answer to your question lies in your testing.
Let me explain.
I dont know if you've ever seen the 'Firebird' strategy. Its an expert advisor for metatrader which takes small profits with hugh stops - in fact in some cases with no stops. Last time I checked this thing took 6 pips on winning trades and lost 300 pips on losing trades.
For that to make money you have to have something like a 99% win/loss ratio to make money - ie in 100 trades you make 99 X 6 pips but one loser X300 pips = 294 pips profit per 100 trades - just one trade less winning equals disaster - 98 X6 pips = 588 pips but 2 losers = 600 pips.
People are often drawn by these strategies because they hardly ever lose - however the real drawdown is in the open positions and people who trade these often just cannot face taking a loss. You can run with this whilstever you have money in your account but it's not a sustainable strategy in my opinion, however i could be wrong and often am.
So, back to your question.
If you come across something that has 20 wins on the trot then keep testing it till you have a good sample size - I tend to work on a sample size of around 600 to 1000 trades for 'one a day' trades - 400 for swing trades but nothing lower than that. if the figures look good after that then I would have initial confidence in the system. Just dont get excited by 20 trades :)
Hope this helps
continued ...
Ok, the last bit then.
Firstly let me say that some people (albeit a small number) can trade like that with s&r pivots etc and consistently make money, lots of it in fact.
But as it is gut feeling based and given that you can only develop gut feelings with experience - this method takes years and years to be good at. I can do it and it took me about 2 solid years of 12 hour days watching charts to get good enough. even when you are good enough your results are affected by outside influences like your health, mood, women etc.
There aren't many people who can do that and that's why they make the big bucks.
It's not how I personally choose to secure my future earnings. You have to understand something fundamental about me personally.
The way that i discovered trading in the first place was by asking myself a single question. and I still ask the same question every day.
"How can I make the most amount of money ... with the least effort"
To me trading s&r, Pivots, MA's etc etc is hard work and draining. what's more it's very hit and miss. This is why I do not choose to trade in this manner.
As for your question - is it really as simple as just testing ma's and money management - is that the holy grail?
My answer is yes it is. finding one that works is the hard bit, and believe me there is no moving average cross that works on any pair in any combination - how do i know that? - because i've tested them ...all.
But that does not mean you shouldn't test them - trading methods are like the notes in a song - despite the fact that every note has been used billions of times - every day someone comes up with a new song from the same seven notes. The same is true with methods of trading and you may just have the next winning system. But unless you have a way of measuring it then you won't know if you have a winning system or a bag of crap.
What I can tell you though is that systems that make little money are not super rare - there are many ways of making a little money in this game - however I can tell you that winning systems that consistently make money time after time after time with enough profit and consistency on which to place some serious money - are as rare as hens teeth.
My trading at the moment takes roughly 30 minutes a day - but i spend the other 10 hours doing nothing but research and testing. Testing a single system properly takes about 2 man months
Ive worked that way now day in day out for around 2 years , and it's not just me, there are several others in my team- 10 hours a day research and development for 2 years - lot of hours i think you will agree. How many systems do you think I've developed in that time that deserve real money placing on them - and I'm not talking a few thousand here ....
Well I'll tell you - two systems, that's all. and just one of them is plenty enough to make me millions and millions. see, - rare as hens teeth.
My team have tested hundreds of systems - but there are hundreds more that we have not even heard of yet. that's why we keep on testing and testing, day after day. When the systems we have have made us the money we want then we will probably stop but for now ... back to the grindstone I'm afraid :)
My advice to you for your next step? - learn to use Excel :)
Firstly let me say that some people (albeit a small number) can trade like that with s&r pivots etc and consistently make money, lots of it in fact.
But as it is gut feeling based and given that you can only develop gut feelings with experience - this method takes years and years to be good at. I can do it and it took me about 2 solid years of 12 hour days watching charts to get good enough. even when you are good enough your results are affected by outside influences like your health, mood, women etc.
There aren't many people who can do that and that's why they make the big bucks.
It's not how I personally choose to secure my future earnings. You have to understand something fundamental about me personally.
The way that i discovered trading in the first place was by asking myself a single question. and I still ask the same question every day.
"How can I make the most amount of money ... with the least effort"
To me trading s&r, Pivots, MA's etc etc is hard work and draining. what's more it's very hit and miss. This is why I do not choose to trade in this manner.
As for your question - is it really as simple as just testing ma's and money management - is that the holy grail?
My answer is yes it is. finding one that works is the hard bit, and believe me there is no moving average cross that works on any pair in any combination - how do i know that? - because i've tested them ...all.
But that does not mean you shouldn't test them - trading methods are like the notes in a song - despite the fact that every note has been used billions of times - every day someone comes up with a new song from the same seven notes. The same is true with methods of trading and you may just have the next winning system. But unless you have a way of measuring it then you won't know if you have a winning system or a bag of crap.
What I can tell you though is that systems that make little money are not super rare - there are many ways of making a little money in this game - however I can tell you that winning systems that consistently make money time after time after time with enough profit and consistency on which to place some serious money - are as rare as hens teeth.
My trading at the moment takes roughly 30 minutes a day - but i spend the other 10 hours doing nothing but research and testing. Testing a single system properly takes about 2 man months
Ive worked that way now day in day out for around 2 years , and it's not just me, there are several others in my team- 10 hours a day research and development for 2 years - lot of hours i think you will agree. How many systems do you think I've developed in that time that deserve real money placing on them - and I'm not talking a few thousand here ....
Well I'll tell you - two systems, that's all. and just one of them is plenty enough to make me millions and millions. see, - rare as hens teeth.
My team have tested hundreds of systems - but there are hundreds more that we have not even heard of yet. that's why we keep on testing and testing, day after day. When the systems we have have made us the money we want then we will probably stop but for now ... back to the grindstone I'm afraid :)
My advice to you for your next step? - learn to use Excel :)
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Peter ...
Ok, nice first question then from Peter below - if you would like to ask anything then please use the comments link at the bottom of this post.
Hi Soul,
Ive had a real struggle with accepting that the forex is a neutral market and that anything can happen, in fact, so much so that i flip a coin every time before entering a trade to remind me i have as much control in predicting heads or tails as i do in getting the market to do what i want or predict. As tedious as that sounds it helps me to not take the loss personally and to keep my psychology in check.
Am interested in knowing what it took for you in your trading walk to switch your psychology to that of a winning mindset.
And yes i am a 1 year old trader trading $1 lots however sod it, I've learnt enough to realise that the key to being successful is by thinking probabilities and not searching for holy grails of signals and indicators.
Peter
Hi Peter, and thanks for the question, it's a very good one
Firstly if you are a year in and still at $1 a pip then well done, you are demonstrating that you have two of the most important things needed in a trader - Firstly determination in the fact that you've managed a year, and secondly discipline in the fact that you are still playing with minimum lot size.
Many traders would have a) given up by now and b) if they had not given up then they would have blown the account by trading higher and higher. You are probably already in a 20% minority so pat yourself on the back.
The lesson to be learned there is that if you cannot make money at $1 a pip that you will not make money at $10 or $100 a pip.
The revelation that you cannot control or predict the market is the most important one you will ever learn. and you can only learn it from the experience. No matter how many times you read it in books or articles makes no difference at all - to actually make it part of your belief system you have to prove it to yourself. It seems you are beginning to get there.
When you know for a fact that you cannot predict the market all sorts of wonderful connections begin to form in your head. How can you possibly beat yourself us for 'getting it wrong' if you had no control in the first place?
so, your question was how did i move into a winning mindset - the answer to this was in your next sentence - knowing the probabilities.
A winning trader can tell you exactly what the percentage of wins they have is. they can tell you exactly how many consecutive losers they expect, exactly how many pips per trade on average they expect and exactly what their average month has been for the past year.
Think about this - if you knew that you won say 60% of the time, that your winners were bigger than the losers combined - that even if you had a bad run that the method over time would bring you out a winner - how would your mindset be?
The important thing here are the words 'if you knew' - Most traders don't know. They don't do exhaustive testing and monitoring to find out these things. They have a feeling that they do OK and that their method works - but they don't actually know it for a fact because mostly they can't be bothered to do all the testing and logging stuff.
When things are going well it's fine not to have the tests that prove beyond doubt that you win - because you are winning anyway. But when a bad run comes along their belief is shattered and they start changing this and that, convinced now that their method does not work. Maybe it doesn't - but then maybe it does - but because they did not put in the testing they will never know.
These magic words 'winning mindset' bring up all sorts of pictures of the successful businessman in his suit, striding along without a care in the world. Traders aspire to be like that yet do not want to put in the work.
Having a winning mindset is akin to putting you feet out of the car after a journey - you know for a fact that there will be ground under your feet - you don't know if the ground will be muddy, quicksand or good solid ground - but you do know that if it is muddy and slippy that if you continue to move around you will get to solid ground. You know this for a fact because you learned as a child.
Of course there is always the chance that you will step out into a gaping chasm - but the probabilities are stacked way in your favor that ground will be there. even so, to make sure you aren't going into a chasm you always take a glance- and a check. winning traders do the same thing, constantly checking their perception is right.
When you take trades day after day unless you test those trades, log them, analyse them and explore them then you don't know that there is ground beneath your feet and you won't know if the ground is moving.
In the trading world you are a child and you have lessons to learn. but just like a child learning not all your lessons can be simple and some require work on paper.
A winning mindset comes from actually knowing that your method works and that the probabilities are in your favor. You have proved it by doing lots and lots of work.
A winning mindset comes from knowing that you can repeat your trades over and over again in a systematic way. This is why I've always tried to get away from discretionary trading - how can you repeat a gut feeling?
This is the real work of the trader. Being a trader is not about pressing buttons at the right time and watching charts - the real work of a trader is done way before those trades are placed. The real work of a trader is being hung over a spreadsheet for months on end and checking checking checking against a one minute chart. A trader with a winning mindset has done all this before trading and just has to go through the motions.
Once the work is done THEN comes the payback. The trading is easy - just button clicks without any emotions - repeatability again and again - then comes the rewards.
Forget learning to trade - trading is merely the process of clicking buttons.
Learn to test, log and analyse instead and the winning mindset you desire will automatically come.
Hope this helps
Hi Soul,
Ive had a real struggle with accepting that the forex is a neutral market and that anything can happen, in fact, so much so that i flip a coin every time before entering a trade to remind me i have as much control in predicting heads or tails as i do in getting the market to do what i want or predict. As tedious as that sounds it helps me to not take the loss personally and to keep my psychology in check.
Am interested in knowing what it took for you in your trading walk to switch your psychology to that of a winning mindset.
And yes i am a 1 year old trader trading $1 lots however sod it, I've learnt enough to realise that the key to being successful is by thinking probabilities and not searching for holy grails of signals and indicators.
Peter
Hi Peter, and thanks for the question, it's a very good one
Firstly if you are a year in and still at $1 a pip then well done, you are demonstrating that you have two of the most important things needed in a trader - Firstly determination in the fact that you've managed a year, and secondly discipline in the fact that you are still playing with minimum lot size.
Many traders would have a) given up by now and b) if they had not given up then they would have blown the account by trading higher and higher. You are probably already in a 20% minority so pat yourself on the back.
The lesson to be learned there is that if you cannot make money at $1 a pip that you will not make money at $10 or $100 a pip.
The revelation that you cannot control or predict the market is the most important one you will ever learn. and you can only learn it from the experience. No matter how many times you read it in books or articles makes no difference at all - to actually make it part of your belief system you have to prove it to yourself. It seems you are beginning to get there.
When you know for a fact that you cannot predict the market all sorts of wonderful connections begin to form in your head. How can you possibly beat yourself us for 'getting it wrong' if you had no control in the first place?
so, your question was how did i move into a winning mindset - the answer to this was in your next sentence - knowing the probabilities.
A winning trader can tell you exactly what the percentage of wins they have is. they can tell you exactly how many consecutive losers they expect, exactly how many pips per trade on average they expect and exactly what their average month has been for the past year.
Think about this - if you knew that you won say 60% of the time, that your winners were bigger than the losers combined - that even if you had a bad run that the method over time would bring you out a winner - how would your mindset be?
The important thing here are the words 'if you knew' - Most traders don't know. They don't do exhaustive testing and monitoring to find out these things. They have a feeling that they do OK and that their method works - but they don't actually know it for a fact because mostly they can't be bothered to do all the testing and logging stuff.
When things are going well it's fine not to have the tests that prove beyond doubt that you win - because you are winning anyway. But when a bad run comes along their belief is shattered and they start changing this and that, convinced now that their method does not work. Maybe it doesn't - but then maybe it does - but because they did not put in the testing they will never know.
These magic words 'winning mindset' bring up all sorts of pictures of the successful businessman in his suit, striding along without a care in the world. Traders aspire to be like that yet do not want to put in the work.
Having a winning mindset is akin to putting you feet out of the car after a journey - you know for a fact that there will be ground under your feet - you don't know if the ground will be muddy, quicksand or good solid ground - but you do know that if it is muddy and slippy that if you continue to move around you will get to solid ground. You know this for a fact because you learned as a child.
Of course there is always the chance that you will step out into a gaping chasm - but the probabilities are stacked way in your favor that ground will be there. even so, to make sure you aren't going into a chasm you always take a glance- and a check. winning traders do the same thing, constantly checking their perception is right.
When you take trades day after day unless you test those trades, log them, analyse them and explore them then you don't know that there is ground beneath your feet and you won't know if the ground is moving.
In the trading world you are a child and you have lessons to learn. but just like a child learning not all your lessons can be simple and some require work on paper.
A winning mindset comes from actually knowing that your method works and that the probabilities are in your favor. You have proved it by doing lots and lots of work.
A winning mindset comes from knowing that you can repeat your trades over and over again in a systematic way. This is why I've always tried to get away from discretionary trading - how can you repeat a gut feeling?
This is the real work of the trader. Being a trader is not about pressing buttons at the right time and watching charts - the real work of a trader is done way before those trades are placed. The real work of a trader is being hung over a spreadsheet for months on end and checking checking checking against a one minute chart. A trader with a winning mindset has done all this before trading and just has to go through the motions.
Once the work is done THEN comes the payback. The trading is easy - just button clicks without any emotions - repeatability again and again - then comes the rewards.
Forget learning to trade - trading is merely the process of clicking buttons.
Learn to test, log and analyse instead and the winning mindset you desire will automatically come.
Hope this helps
Sunday, March 04, 2007
New Blog Purpose
Hiya.
This blog is now changing it's tack. It's basically a place where you can ask your questions to me as an experienced trader or just share your views on market shit etc.
I have decided to totally abandon the forums around the Internet and now agree with Dirk De Troit - they are social clubs for losers. well, we cannot all be winners in this game can we.
every time i go into chat rooms or forums it seems like I'm regressing into a former life and going into the dungeon of hopelessness.
it also seems that those who cannot trade to save their life want like crazy to give me advice, like they have the pearls of wisdom that i lack.
I'm always open for some serious discussion, but come on, a one year trader telling me that i should be using trend lines ???? There he is with his poxy $1 a pip trade and I'm trading over $1000 a pip and he's giving me advice??? what a crazy world.
so anyway, Moneytec, Strategybuilder, Elite Trader, forex factory etc - I've left em all and won't be going back so this is the only place you will find me from now on.
Its an open discussion for Q&A so feel free to comment or use the chat bit on the right - please though don't start giving me advice - what i don't know now i'll have to learn by mistakes and not by some newbie with an ego bigger than mine was :)
bring it on.
This blog is now changing it's tack. It's basically a place where you can ask your questions to me as an experienced trader or just share your views on market shit etc.
I have decided to totally abandon the forums around the Internet and now agree with Dirk De Troit - they are social clubs for losers. well, we cannot all be winners in this game can we.
every time i go into chat rooms or forums it seems like I'm regressing into a former life and going into the dungeon of hopelessness.
it also seems that those who cannot trade to save their life want like crazy to give me advice, like they have the pearls of wisdom that i lack.
I'm always open for some serious discussion, but come on, a one year trader telling me that i should be using trend lines ???? There he is with his poxy $1 a pip trade and I'm trading over $1000 a pip and he's giving me advice??? what a crazy world.
so anyway, Moneytec, Strategybuilder, Elite Trader, forex factory etc - I've left em all and won't be going back so this is the only place you will find me from now on.
Its an open discussion for Q&A so feel free to comment or use the chat bit on the right - please though don't start giving me advice - what i don't know now i'll have to learn by mistakes and not by some newbie with an ego bigger than mine was :)
bring it on.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
ok, did the analasys and so far it's like this.
aud -19, eur -87, cad -72, chf +441
so 263 pips so far - remember this system is designed not to make lots of money, but to be a nice smooth equity curve - there is a larger winning percentage on all pairs and it's hoped that when some are losing some are winning - thats exactly whats happening so far - actually better than i expected.
usd jpy has now been added to the mix making five pairs.
I'm afraid i cannot post the trades anymore as they just do not appear in the test blog - shame that but i will keep you posted.
aud -19, eur -87, cad -72, chf +441
so 263 pips so far - remember this system is designed not to make lots of money, but to be a nice smooth equity curve - there is a larger winning percentage on all pairs and it's hoped that when some are losing some are winning - thats exactly whats happening so far - actually better than i expected.
usd jpy has now been added to the mix making five pairs.
I'm afraid i cannot post the trades anymore as they just do not appear in the test blog - shame that but i will keep you posted.
Pointless
Sorry all, but this is pointless.
Half the emails are not getting through at all to the blog - there are trades in that it posted but never appeared and there are trailing stops in that have not appeared on the blog.
so it's just pointless continuing with the trident test log.
as it stands it's about break even, it had a skew of losers last week and some winners since - just about in profit i think but ive not done the analasys yet.
Half the emails are not getting through at all to the blog - there are trades in that it posted but never appeared and there are trailing stops in that have not appeared on the blog.
so it's just pointless continuing with the trident test log.
as it stands it's about break even, it had a skew of losers last week and some winners since - just about in profit i think but ive not done the analasys yet.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
The new blog for the signals can be found at http://tridentforex.blogspot.com/
Hi all, thanks for having a look at this.
for some reason not all mails are making it through - they get sent but i think blogger does something to identify multiple emails looking the same - the onoly difference in mine is the prices so maybe it classes em as spam.
however, im now trying to put the pair traded in the subject line so lets try that.
results so far are like this
12 trades
10 winners
2 losers
222 pips
please try to keep track of trades yourself if you are interested cos i wont be doing this often.
I fully expect these results to worsen as the strategy is winning too often - ave win / loss in testing was around 55% and not what's been shown so far
Hi all, thanks for having a look at this.
for some reason not all mails are making it through - they get sent but i think blogger does something to identify multiple emails looking the same - the onoly difference in mine is the prices so maybe it classes em as spam.
however, im now trying to put the pair traded in the subject line so lets try that.
results so far are like this
12 trades
10 winners
2 losers
222 pips
please try to keep track of trades yourself if you are interested cos i wont be doing this often.
I fully expect these results to worsen as the strategy is winning too often - ave win / loss in testing was around 55% and not what's been shown so far
Monday, February 05, 2007
Trading expert experiment 2 - Trident
Hi all.
Time for another automatic trading experiment then.
Ive been working on a new autotrading system which looks like it has real promise.
The tests suggest an up to 75% win / loss ratio complete with bigger winners than losers on average so looking good.
The system called Trident is to be traded on a live account and you can follow it's progress.
At the moment this is the information I am happy to give you :
At the moment I have 2 pairs running on the system however more will be added as we progress to a probable 5 - 10 pairs.
The autotrader will post trades in real time to a new blog. this is done via email and sometimes for some reason they don't appear in the right order on the blog - I can't do anything about that and i'm buggared as to why it happens??? - any idea's anyone?
The autotrader WILL tell you when all the following actions occur:
The autotrader will NOT tell you when the following actions occur:
there, thats about it - if you have questions please use the chat box on the right.
The new blog for the signals can be found at http://tridentforex.blogspot.com/
Time for another automatic trading experiment then.
Ive been working on a new autotrading system which looks like it has real promise.
The tests suggest an up to 75% win / loss ratio complete with bigger winners than losers on average so looking good.
The system called Trident is to be traded on a live account and you can follow it's progress.
At the moment this is the information I am happy to give you :
- The system is traded on the 30 minute chart.
- Some trades can last days, some only minutes.
- The system is exited via four ways, a stop, trailing stop, take profit or system closing signal.
- Each pair has different settings, however this system does not use indicators and is mathematically based.
At the moment I have 2 pairs running on the system however more will be added as we progress to a probable 5 - 10 pairs.
The autotrader will post trades in real time to a new blog. this is done via email and sometimes for some reason they don't appear in the right order on the blog - I can't do anything about that and i'm buggared as to why it happens??? - any idea's anyone?
The autotrader WILL tell you when all the following actions occur:
- trade enters long or short
- The symbol traded
- The entry point
- The stop loss
- The take profit
- when the trailing stop kicks in a single post will say what the trailing stop distance is.
- The trade closes on a close signal from the autotrader
The autotrader will NOT tell you when the following actions occur:
- The trade closes on the take profit
- The trade is stopped out
- The trade closes on the trailing stop
there, thats about it - if you have questions please use the chat box on the right.
The new blog for the signals can be found at http://tridentforex.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT 16:29 innit marvelous - the wife wants taking to do some shopping and you miss the best trade of the day!
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT 14:24 never forget to add spread when in a short - its easy to look at a chart and see a peak and place your stop there - always remember that a chart price is BID
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT 11:19 last trade closed at -15 - took another long - got to be careful here - starting to feel like i'm trading erratically because of news. still have the feeling that cable will rise but then i shouldnt be acting on feeling - hmmm, not really felt like this for a long time. my main reasons have all been technical but I am breaking a few rules this morning so got to be careful
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade 11:6GBPUSD at 1.96450000 Stop at 1.96150000 Take Profit at 1.97450000 Comment: autocomment:
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade 10:43GBPUSD at 1.96570000 Stop at 1.96270000 Take Profit at 1.97570000 Comment:
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade GBPUSD at 1.96660000 Stop at 1.96360000 Take Profit at 1.97660000first trade of the day then
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT just noticed this blog has the time wrong - its showing the last posts as 8 31 and it was in fact around 8 23 - this one is being sent at 8.27 and i dont know what it will say - guessi will have to also put a timestamp in the comments
Monday, January 15, 2007
weird!!
now, as you can see from the attached picture the stop was moved before the trading comment mail was sent - but for some reason the first mail arrived after the second mail so it looks like i moved the stop after it closed.
i guess that's the problem with blog by email!
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade GBPUSD at 1.96400000 Stop at 1.96100000 Take Profit at 1.97400000 autocomment:testing a long then - cant resist - trading starts proper tomorrow
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
BACK TRADING
Hi all, I'm back trading with hilda againand this is soooo cool.
I now have a way of adressing the blog directly from my account with Mig Investments.
It uses an expert advisor that automatically emails the blog with my entries and stop moves and also any trades I close.
on each expert i can also add comments to go with the trade.
Ive changed the blog so it only shows one days posting on the home page so in theory you will only see todays trades.
what you will not see is when a trade is stopped out so you have to watch the stop levels i post.
Most of the time this is how a trade ends - I dont tend to close trades myself, choosing instead to follow trades with a moving stop - i will cover this for you sometime soon in an article.
In the meantime, as the trades appear please ask any questions using the chat box to the right.
I've just reset all the posts ive been experimenting with so from now on I should be posting only genuine trades. :)
I now have a way of adressing the blog directly from my account with Mig Investments.
It uses an expert advisor that automatically emails the blog with my entries and stop moves and also any trades I close.
on each expert i can also add comments to go with the trade.
Ive changed the blog so it only shows one days posting on the home page so in theory you will only see todays trades.
what you will not see is when a trade is stopped out so you have to watch the stop levels i post.
Most of the time this is how a trade ends - I dont tend to close trades myself, choosing instead to follow trades with a moving stop - i will cover this for you sometime soon in an article.
In the meantime, as the trades appear please ask any questions using the chat box to the right.
I've just reset all the posts ive been experimenting with so from now on I should be posting only genuine trades. :)
Sunday, December 17, 2006
expert changed
ok, boring in new york tonight (honest!) so done some programming - this willresult in most open trades being closed for a loss - just so ou know it aint the system that lost so much :)
Thursday, December 14, 2006
closes so far
eurjpy on trail +184 pips
nzdjpy closed on trail +133
audchf closed on system exit signal as seen below -42 pips
cadjpy closed on trail +69 pips
not bad eh - another 417 pips in total closed.
there is a problem tho, usdchf should have closed at 1.2078 according to system - the expert failed to close for some reason and is now -140 ish, have to have a look at that when i get back in the uk
eurjpy on trail +184 pips
nzdjpy closed on trail +133
audchf closed on system exit signal as seen below -42 pips
cadjpy closed on trail +69 pips
not bad eh - another 417 pips in total closed.
there is a problem tho, usdchf should have closed at 1.2078 according to system - the expert failed to close for some reason and is now -140 ish, have to have a look at that when i get back in the uk
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Monday, December 11, 2006
trail in
cad jpy now has an 80 pip trailer
eurjpy now has a 60 pip trailer
eurcad stopped out 1.5197 for +28 pips
you'll have to track em yourself now for a bit - calls will be made automatically by the robot trader but i am too busy at the mo to add comments.
follow the calls - aint doing bad are they? - to date it's made +417 including some shite ones i started off with manually - thats in 3 weeks.
catch you soon.
eurjpy now has a 60 pip trailer
eurcad stopped out 1.5197 for +28 pips
you'll have to track em yourself now for a bit - calls will be made automatically by the robot trader but i am too busy at the mo to add comments.
follow the calls - aint doing bad are they? - to date it's made +417 including some shite ones i started off with manually - thats in 3 weeks.
catch you soon.
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Friday, December 08, 2006
have a good weekend
Ok, here is the state of play at the mo - numbers are in pips. Just $10k lots for the testing phase
and here's the swissy trade to prove it :)
Have a great weekend, catch you Monday
and here's the swissy trade to prove it :)
Have a great weekend, catch you Monday
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Interesting.
Ok, this autoblogging thing is kinda cool - the posts appear very fast but maybe i should attach a timestamp to the mail too? dunno.
Anyway, it's live now - i might take some disc trades later today and the plodder is on auto mode.
That gold was a nice trade for 127 pips :)
currently running on plodder is:
usdchf short from 1.2439 - stop at 1.1997
eurcad short from 1.5225
cadjpy long from 100.57
audchf long from 0.9398
you should be able to track the performance from the mails now - only swissy has the trailer in at the mo. Note that if you get two posts closing a trade it's most likely a re-quote like the gold one below
Anyway, it's live now - i might take some disc trades later today and the plodder is on auto mode.
That gold was a nice trade for 127 pips :)
currently running on plodder is:
usdchf short from 1.2439 - stop at 1.1997
eurcad short from 1.5225
cadjpy long from 100.57
audchf long from 0.9398
you should be able to track the performance from the mails now - only swissy has the trailer in at the mo. Note that if you get two posts closing a trade it's most likely a re-quote like the gold one below
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
clever
clever - the modification email gets here before the trade placed email! typical; blogger that is!!!
I entered the trade, modified twice and thenclosed it and only one poxy email made it here! all four emails got through from my smtp server so it has to be the blogger end.
I entered the trade, modified twice and thenclosed it and only one poxy email made it here! all four emails got through from my smtp server so it has to be the blogger end.
ok, fun time
Ok, listen carefully.
Ive now made my new robot trader so it will email the blog automatically when it does anything.
Ive also made one which will post my discretionary trades also.
Heres how it will work.
The new robot is called the Plodder - so called because some trades take ages and also because it's on a 4 hour chart. for example my short usdchf trade has been running since the 20th and is still in.
if you see a plodder email then that is a real live autotrade. you will see entries and exits and stop moves also - it emails the minute it changes, enters or exits a trade. - note that the plodder does not have an initial stop until it's trailer kicks in.
Please note that i already have 6 trades running and if there are any changes to those trades you will also see them. The only time the expert will not send an email is when the trade is taken out on it's trailing stop - i'm working on that though and hopefully it will do this in the future.
The discretionary trade expert operates exactly the same way - you'll get entries, exits and stop moves.
Lets hope it works right :) - first thing i'm going to test it out on a quick demo trade so ignore the first one - after 3pm trades will be real
Ive now made my new robot trader so it will email the blog automatically when it does anything.
Ive also made one which will post my discretionary trades also.
Heres how it will work.
The new robot is called the Plodder - so called because some trades take ages and also because it's on a 4 hour chart. for example my short usdchf trade has been running since the 20th and is still in.
if you see a plodder email then that is a real live autotrade. you will see entries and exits and stop moves also - it emails the minute it changes, enters or exits a trade. - note that the plodder does not have an initial stop until it's trailer kicks in.
Please note that i already have 6 trades running and if there are any changes to those trades you will also see them. The only time the expert will not send an email is when the trade is taken out on it's trailing stop - i'm working on that though and hopefully it will do this in the future.
The discretionary trade expert operates exactly the same way - you'll get entries, exits and stop moves.
Lets hope it works right :) - first thing i'm going to test it out on a quick demo trade so ignore the first one - after 3pm trades will be real
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
New results soon
Hi y'all.
just an update then - this new idea i had is coming on, so much so that I 've been working on an autotrader.
The autotrader now works and i'm currently working on parameters for each pair. Once ive done that and got em all as i want them then i will probarbly start posting the results for you to have a look at.
It's not intraday though, more swing trading on a 4 hour chart.
Will speak soon, may the pips be with you :)
STOP PRESS - just setup mt4 to send trades to my blog so you may start to see some trade posts in here. - don't take em tho :)
just an update then - this new idea i had is coming on, so much so that I 've been working on an autotrader.
The autotrader now works and i'm currently working on parameters for each pair. Once ive done that and got em all as i want them then i will probarbly start posting the results for you to have a look at.
It's not intraday though, more swing trading on a 4 hour chart.
Will speak soon, may the pips be with you :)
STOP PRESS - just setup mt4 to send trades to my blog so you may start to see some trade posts in here. - don't take em tho :)
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Thanks for your reply, you have given me plenty of information to digest.
No worries :)
An issue I'm struggling with at the moment is finding a viable way of determining if my system does actually put the odds in my favour. My strategy is nothing flash, 34,55&200 MA for trend, S&R and reading candlesticks on 30min and 1hour. I either trade the breakout or trade the bounce. I use metatrader and have an account with IG index (who i hate but have yet to find better - recommendations of brokers would be greatly appreciated).
Because my system is largely based on identifying S&R and candlestick reversals etc it is hard to back test the data due to not having a clue how to actually transfer all this info into excel. As you say how can i repeat a gut feeling of where i deem a Support or Resistance line is identically correctly placed in a future scenario?
However you have presented me with an interesting theory, 1 that could definitely make my life easier and completely remove the discretion from my decision making process....
Theoretically, i should just scrap everything I've learnt this past year with S&R and candles etc, find a dumbass MA crossover strategy (which i always hated the thought of because of the sheer no brains simplicity of it), play with the MA's, stops and profit limits and backtest until i find the best probability and just trade away blindly to probability success.
Is it really that simple? Is that the holy grail? Am I talking gold dust or just crap?
Your time and thoughts into this are greatly appreciated.
Peter
thanks again