NEW TRADE - SHORT USDCHF @1.1270 IF SEEN SL 1.1450
watch list includes cadchf for a possible short somewhere below 0.92 that will be a nice one if it kicks off with a reasonable risk. Not today tho
Stay Lucky
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
closes
GBPUSD CLOSED ON STOP -146
EURGBP CLOSED ON STOP +190
Results so far - January 2009 +1472 on closed trades
Only eurcad still going - no trades for a bit, market is skittish. Fancied gbpcad earlier today but anti trend so no go.
Catch you in a day or so.
EURGBP CLOSED ON STOP +190
Results so far - January 2009 +1472 on closed trades
Only eurcad still going - no trades for a bit, market is skittish. Fancied gbpcad earlier today but anti trend so no go.
Catch you in a day or so.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Ok, some blowouts then.
USDCHF CLOSED ON STOP FOR + 549
GBPCHF CLOSED ON STOP FOR +70 (SHAME)
Other two still running and no change to stops
Results so far - January 2009 +1428 on closed trades
not a bad month eh?
NEW TRADE - LOW RISK SHORT GBPUSD 1.3984 SL 1.4130
fyi the usdcad trade i mentioned a few days ago came off but the risk was too high so didnt take it.
That's it for now i think.
Stay Lucky
PS, out of interest, would anyone be interested in a training course live online? just that a friend of mine has suggested it and he's willing to organise it. Cost would be around $2k per head and would be intensive and a long course over say six weeks twice a day at market times.
Not saying i'll do it yet, just sniffing the ground to see if there is any interest or if i'll get slated for it as used to happen. he seems to think not but i still think the vast majority are tossers. sorry like, just my experience with wannabe traders.
USDCHF CLOSED ON STOP FOR + 549
GBPCHF CLOSED ON STOP FOR +70 (SHAME)
Other two still running and no change to stops
Results so far - January 2009 +1428 on closed trades
not a bad month eh?
NEW TRADE - LOW RISK SHORT GBPUSD 1.3984 SL 1.4130
fyi the usdcad trade i mentioned a few days ago came off but the risk was too high so didnt take it.
That's it for now i think.
Stay Lucky
PS, out of interest, would anyone be interested in a training course live online? just that a friend of mine has suggested it and he's willing to organise it. Cost would be around $2k per head and would be intensive and a long course over say six weeks twice a day at market times.
Not saying i'll do it yet, just sniffing the ground to see if there is any interest or if i'll get slated for it as used to happen. he seems to think not but i still think the vast majority are tossers. sorry like, just my experience with wannabe traders.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
New Week
Nice to see trades going the right way from the off.
some stop moves:
GBPCHF STOP MOVE TO 1.6070
EURGBP STOP MOVE TO 0.9290
EURCAD STOP MOVE TO 1.6330
USDCHF STOP MOVE TO 1.1470
Starting to tighten up on usdchf, getting near a possible retrace. anyone noticed that this is now in excess of 7:1 on RR?
more in the AM, catch you then
Stay Lucky
some stop moves:
GBPCHF STOP MOVE TO 1.6070
EURGBP STOP MOVE TO 0.9290
EURCAD STOP MOVE TO 1.6330
USDCHF STOP MOVE TO 1.1470
Starting to tighten up on usdchf, getting near a possible retrace. anyone noticed that this is now in excess of 7:1 on RR?
more in the AM, catch you then
Stay Lucky
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
questions ...
20 Jan 09, 08:19
Steve: Hey Soul, How did you decide to short GBPCHF at 6140 - its probly a trade secret but I'm curious why you didn't short it when it was at 67??No secret Steve - I always give a trade plenty of room to make sure it's broken a level. The fools would have shorted at 67 - in this case it would have been a good area and they feel smug, but that's just one out of say seven wheras the other six would have bounced and gone back into the range. A test of a level will mostly be at least 20 pips deep because of the orders sat there
I normally go for the 70 below the nearest figure or the 30 when going long. 20 to 50 pips is neither here nor there on the trades i take
20 Jan 09, 09:16
3 mil in the account??Mornin Al,
Ive traded 17mio on account before now Al. i've lost more than $120,000 on a single trade and made more than double that on a single trade before now too. Figures like 30k risk are small potatoes in this game.
However, please note that when i quote a figure for a standard lot, they are standard interbank lots (1 lot = 1mio). A retail trader's standard lot ($100,000) on eurgbp would have been $14 per pip and a mini account (10,000) just $1.40. Then you can even open a micro account and have 14 cents a lot lol, tho why you would even bother is beyond me.
I always quote per Mio, that doesnt mean i take a full lot every time as most of the client accounts I trade are mini accounts. Sometimes I take more than a mio and sometimes less.
Tell you what tho Al, you don't half lose your respect for money in this profession.
As for the full size of the accounts I trade, i'll keep that to myself i think :)
Now then TRADE NEWS
GBPUSD chancer entered and died - 50 pips at 2X stake = -100
EURAUD just died -200
USDCHF STOP MOVE TO 1.1270
EURGBP kicked in off the entry as did GBPCHF
Results so far - January 2009 +809 on closed trades
Monday, January 19, 2009
GBPCHF market order re-instated 1.6140 short if seen sl 500 pips
Kinda tempted by audusd for a short but not tonight - was looking to place an order at 6480 ish but think i'll hold off - whole market looks shaky and uncertain.
i do fancy this next one though - but be careful with position size as it's $144 per pip for each mio as opposed to $100 which is usual. risk is 200 pips - reward around 700 at a guess
NEW TRADE - LONG EURGBP @ 0.9140 IF SEEN SL 200 PIPS
There is a really low risk cable long at this level so i'm going to go for one but with a market order and a double stake. this might not even get hit but worth a risk if it does.
NEW TRADE LONG GBPUSD 1.4320 IF SEEN - SL 1.4270
only a 50 pip risk (at 2X usual stake) for a possible rejection bounce back up to 1.49 area - risk reward on this is about 12:1
Thats enough new risk for tonight, no other changes to stops
Kinda tempted by audusd for a short but not tonight - was looking to place an order at 6480 ish but think i'll hold off - whole market looks shaky and uncertain.
i do fancy this next one though - but be careful with position size as it's $144 per pip for each mio as opposed to $100 which is usual. risk is 200 pips - reward around 700 at a guess
NEW TRADE - LONG EURGBP @ 0.9140 IF SEEN SL 200 PIPS
There is a really low risk cable long at this level so i'm going to go for one but with a market order and a double stake. this might not even get hit but worth a risk if it does.
NEW TRADE LONG GBPUSD 1.4320 IF SEEN - SL 1.4270
only a 50 pip risk (at 2X usual stake) for a possible rejection bounce back up to 1.49 area - risk reward on this is about 12:1
Thats enough new risk for tonight, no other changes to stops
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Sunday Night - Market Open
CANX ENTRY ORDER ON GBPCHF
EURUSD STOPPED OUT + 343
Results so far - January 2009 +1109 on closed trades
Think that will do for tonight. see what tomorrow brings with Brown and his wonderful bank bail out. F*&^in tosser!
EURUSD STOPPED OUT + 343
Results so far - January 2009 +1109 on closed trades
Think that will do for tonight. see what tomorrow brings with Brown and his wonderful bank bail out. F*&^in tosser!
Friday, January 16, 2009
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Closes
Ok, decided upon having a look at the yen pairs to close a couple to lock in some money. Across the board the yen seems to be having a little turn so we could be in for some up and down ranging for a few days or even a couple of weeks.
Then again they could just bollock down and smash throught the floor! what do i know???
so, been in a few good runs so time to take some of that honey.
CLOSE CHFJPY @ 80.61 FOR +304
CLOSE eurjpy @ 119.57 FOR + 528
Results so far - January 2009 +766 on closed trades
so, the question is why did i close em when i'm a 'stick with em till the death' trader. and the answer is this.certain pairs under normal circumstances move a certain way at a certain rate. I considered that this rate was a bit over the top of late on the yens and that a hard retrace could be due.
Add to that the fact i was in 4 positions rather than the usual two or three and I think it was right to take some of that money on the table and release some risk hence almost reaching my target of 1000+ for the month.
The other two are moving more as one would expect so i'm happy to leave them running to see if they continue.
Stay Lucky.
Then again they could just bollock down and smash throught the floor! what do i know???
so, been in a few good runs so time to take some of that honey.
CLOSE CHFJPY @ 80.61 FOR +304
CLOSE eurjpy @ 119.57 FOR + 528
Results so far - January 2009 +766 on closed trades
so, the question is why did i close em when i'm a 'stick with em till the death' trader. and the answer is this.certain pairs under normal circumstances move a certain way at a certain rate. I considered that this rate was a bit over the top of late on the yens and that a hard retrace could be due.
Add to that the fact i was in 4 positions rather than the usual two or three and I think it was right to take some of that money on the table and release some risk hence almost reaching my target of 1000+ for the month.
The other two are moving more as one would expect so i'm happy to leave them running to see if they continue.
Stay Lucky.
Monday, January 12, 2009
stop moves
ok, some changes, lets get a bit locked in here.
STOP MOVE EURUSD TO 1.3530
STOP MOVE CHFJPY TO 82.30
STOP MOVE EURJPY TO 122.30
STOP MOVE USDCHF TO 1.1070
That's it for now, nothing new on the horizon i wish to risk.
also all trades have a 500 pip trailing stop if they get that far.
Stay lucky
STOP MOVE EURUSD TO 1.3530
STOP MOVE CHFJPY TO 82.30
STOP MOVE EURJPY TO 122.30
STOP MOVE USDCHF TO 1.1070
That's it for now, nothing new on the horizon i wish to risk.
also all trades have a 500 pip trailing stop if they get that far.
Stay lucky
well, looks like lady luck decided to smile on me.
Almost 1500 pips up now on four positions - let em roll
STOP MOVE EURJPY 125.40 PLUS 500 PIP TRAILER
STOP MOVE CHFJPY TO BREAK EVEN 83.65 PLUS 500 PIP TS
no change to eurusd or usdchf
It gets very tempting to take profit and call it a day when you have your monthly target in one set of trades. But then i wouldnt be a trader would i :)
That's it, let's see where these baby's go
Stay Lucky
Almost 1500 pips up now on four positions - let em roll
STOP MOVE EURJPY 125.40 PLUS 500 PIP TRAILER
STOP MOVE CHFJPY TO BREAK EVEN 83.65 PLUS 500 PIP TS
no change to eurusd or usdchf
It gets very tempting to take profit and call it a day when you have your monthly target in one set of trades. But then i wouldnt be a trader would i :)
That's it, let's see where these baby's go
Stay Lucky
Friday, January 09, 2009
Thursday, January 08, 2009
can you tell how bored I am being at home sick?
Ive just counted the trades and win / loss ratio of all calls made since Oct 23rd when i re-activated the blog
Total Trades = 27
Wins = 15
Losses = 12
win / loss % stands at 55% positive for 3865 pips
that means each trade was worth 143 pips whether it won or lost!
Ive just counted the trades and win / loss ratio of all calls made since Oct 23rd when i re-activated the blog
Total Trades = 27
Wins = 15
Losses = 12
win / loss % stands at 55% positive for 3865 pips
that means each trade was worth 143 pips whether it won or lost!
EURUSD stopped out for zero pips.
never mind, market is a bit scratchy at the mo.
Looking at cable and wondering if we are going to see a retrace back to 1.7000 levels. we are still on a lower low though so at the mo i'm still only interested in cable shorts.
still got the two yens running anyway. Shgame about the cad from yesterday cos it's looking like it wants to play ball now - stop was too tight there.
I'm sat at home for the last few days - been poorley with the flu and a huge boil on my back! antibiotics are kicking in now though and hope to be better soon.
Stay Lucky.
never mind, market is a bit scratchy at the mo.
Looking at cable and wondering if we are going to see a retrace back to 1.7000 levels. we are still on a lower low though so at the mo i'm still only interested in cable shorts.
still got the two yens running anyway. Shgame about the cad from yesterday cos it's looking like it wants to play ball now - stop was too tight there.
I'm sat at home for the last few days - been poorley with the flu and a huge boil on my back! antibiotics are kicking in now though and hope to be better soon.
Stay Lucky.
ok, shoulda resisted :)
not really, was a good rr chancer.
USDCAD CLOSED ON STOP -66
AUDUSD CLOSED ON STOP +100
January 2009 = -66 Pips on closed trades
EURJPY has now executed so i have three trades open .
STOP MOVED EURUSD TO BREAK EVEN 1.3779 AND 500 PIP TRAILING STOP INITIATED
Thats it for now - not looking for other trades at the mo as got enough running.
Stay Lucky
not really, was a good rr chancer.
USDCAD CLOSED ON STOP -66
AUDUSD CLOSED ON STOP +100
January 2009 = -66 Pips on closed trades
EURJPY has now executed so i have three trades open .
STOP MOVED EURUSD TO BREAK EVEN 1.3779 AND 500 PIP TRAILING STOP INITIATED
Thats it for now - not looking for other trades at the mo as got enough running.
Stay Lucky
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
stop move and info
hiya,
chfjpy kicked in yesterday, not looking too good yet.
eurusd having a big fight back now but let me ask the question - this was almost 500 pips up - and ive let it go back to less than 50 up - could you stomach that? if not then i can honestly say that you should stop reading my blog - im a long term trader - i shoot for 1000+ on trades and im happy if i just get one or two a month. The pullbacks are the price you have to pay to bag the big ones. EURUSD could still lose beleive it or not as there is not yet a smart place to move the stop to. Remember, a candle isnt formed until the end of the day on the daily charts.
Anyway.
STOP MOVE AUDUSD - SL MOVED TO 0.7026 LOCKING IN 100 PIPS
Can you see why i chose that area? - clear support from yesterday means there is a smart area for the stop.
Starting to think i may cancel the EURJPY order but not yet.
also note, i will most likely move the EURUSD stop to 10 pips or so above todays high - wont do it till i see the state of the candle at EOD though.
Stay Lucky.
chfjpy kicked in yesterday, not looking too good yet.
eurusd having a big fight back now but let me ask the question - this was almost 500 pips up - and ive let it go back to less than 50 up - could you stomach that? if not then i can honestly say that you should stop reading my blog - im a long term trader - i shoot for 1000+ on trades and im happy if i just get one or two a month. The pullbacks are the price you have to pay to bag the big ones. EURUSD could still lose beleive it or not as there is not yet a smart place to move the stop to. Remember, a candle isnt formed until the end of the day on the daily charts.
Anyway.
STOP MOVE AUDUSD - SL MOVED TO 0.7026 LOCKING IN 100 PIPS
Can you see why i chose that area? - clear support from yesterday means there is a smart area for the stop.
Starting to think i may cancel the EURJPY order but not yet.
also note, i will most likely move the EURUSD stop to 10 pips or so above todays high - wont do it till i see the state of the candle at EOD though.
Stay Lucky.
Monday, January 05, 2009
new trade
EURUSD doing ok at +155 as we speak, hoping for over 700 on this one but then time will tell. AUDUSD now over +200 so another nice one running AUDUSD STOP MOVED TO BREAK EVEN 0.6926, Nothing special though because half position.
NEW TRADE EURJPY SHORT @ 124.85 IF SEEN, INITIAL 400 PIP STOP
NEW TRADE CHFJPY SHORT @ 83.65 IF SEEN SL 86.30
Couple of hopefuls there.
For Karolis and everyone else interested in managed account Min investment is 50k USD, all funds to be held at MIG investments in switzerland in your own name. No Guarantees but low leverage and risk. expectations 2-10% per month max drawdown 30% before plug gets pulled. If interested leave me a message and i'll be in touch about the fees / legals etc.
Sorry to be so brutal but many think that $50k is a lot of money, if you do then this isnt for you and i'd just as soon save both me and you the time :)
stay lucky.
NEW TRADE EURJPY SHORT @ 124.85 IF SEEN, INITIAL 400 PIP STOP
NEW TRADE CHFJPY SHORT @ 83.65 IF SEEN SL 86.30
Couple of hopefuls there.
For Karolis and everyone else interested in managed account Min investment is 50k USD, all funds to be held at MIG investments in switzerland in your own name. No Guarantees but low leverage and risk. expectations 2-10% per month max drawdown 30% before plug gets pulled. If interested leave me a message and i'll be in touch about the fees / legals etc.
Sorry to be so brutal but many think that $50k is a lot of money, if you do then this isnt for you and i'd just as soon save both me and you the time :)
stay lucky.
Friday, January 02, 2009
Happy New Year!
Well, it's a new year for us all and I sincerely hope it's a good one for you also.
We start a new count off today and close off last year totally. - a clean slate so to speak.
To close off then.
Closed Results +3931 Pips Oct 23rd - Dec 31st 2008
December 2008 = +1357 Pips on closed trades
First one a shitter for 09:
USDJPY CLOSED FOR -100
and one of these to get us going
NEW TRADE - MARKET ORDER - SHORT EURUSD @ 1.3775 IF SEEN - SL 1.4250.
Results 2009 = -100 pips
January 2009 = -100 Pips on closed trades
We start a new count off today and close off last year totally. - a clean slate so to speak.
To close off then.
Closed Results +3931 Pips Oct 23rd - Dec 31st 2008
December 2008 = +1357 Pips on closed trades
First one a shitter for 09:
USDJPY CLOSED FOR -100
and one of these to get us going
NEW TRADE - MARKET ORDER - SHORT EURUSD @ 1.3775 IF SEEN - SL 1.4250.
Results 2009 = -100 pips
January 2009 = -100 Pips on closed trades
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Trades closed
Right then, some closes and changes
GBPUSD closed on stop @1.4620 for +241
USDCHF closed on stop @ 1.0720 for +257
audusd stop moved to 0.6826 (risk 100 pips)
Closed Results +3931 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month +1357 Pips on closed trades
I think that closes 2008 :) a nice last two months of the year
Happy New Year for tomorrow and a prosperous one is wished for you
Stay Lucky
GBPUSD closed on stop @1.4620 for +241
USDCHF closed on stop @ 1.0720 for +257
audusd stop moved to 0.6826 (risk 100 pips)
Closed Results +3931 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month +1357 Pips on closed trades
I think that closes 2008 :) a nice last two months of the year
Happy New Year for tomorrow and a prosperous one is wished for you
Stay Lucky
NEW TRADE
NEW TRADE SHORT USDJPY 90.25 100 PIP STOP
STOP MOVED GBPUSD TO 1.4620
Locking in some profit now on gbpusd, it doesnt seem to like the lower break as much as i had hoped, still, got to give it some room but this tightening might be a mistake.
usdjpy is a low risk trade with a possible 7 or 8 to 1 RR - then again might be crap :)
No other changes.
Enjoy your new years eve celebrations all :)
STOP MOVED GBPUSD TO 1.4620
Locking in some profit now on gbpusd, it doesnt seem to like the lower break as much as i had hoped, still, got to give it some room but this tightening might be a mistake.
usdjpy is a low risk trade with a possible 7 or 8 to 1 RR - then again might be crap :)
No other changes.
Enjoy your new years eve celebrations all :)
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
STOPS MOVE
stops moved as follows
usdchf stop moved to 1.0720
gbpusd stop moved to 1.4850
audusd stop remains at 0.6730
Closed Results +3433 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month +859 Pips on closed trades
Note that i will not be marking to market on new years eve.
Anyone interested in Managed accounts under this method please contact me on here and leave your email address. I have three places available at the moment.
usdchf stop moved to 1.0720
gbpusd stop moved to 1.4850
audusd stop remains at 0.6730
Closed Results +3433 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month +859 Pips on closed trades
Note that i will not be marking to market on new years eve.
Anyone interested in Managed accounts under this method please contact me on here and leave your email address. I have three places available at the moment.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
I had a question in the chat box that i thought deserved an answer in more depth - so here goes.
Tarrentino: Soul, very very interesting stuff in your blogs. I have spent the last three years messing about with automated system development but have yet to get the smooth equity curve we're all searching for. My systems worked well over 2-3 years but there was always one period which made the whole thing FUBAR. Got an article being published in e-Forex in Jan which you might find slightly interesting although there's nothing revolutionary. Are you an ex bank trader?
hi tarrentino - (your films suck by the way :) ) seriously tho, no, not a bank trader just a self taught trader but i have met with many bank traders and know the score.
Automated systems can work but i don't believe they will for retail traders over the long term - the mega players have them that win but they take very small wins that we can't get because of retail spreads - institutions have spreads as low as 0.1 pip and often zero - those people have automated systems.
There's also the calibre of programming tools at our disposal - Until we get some real artificial intelligence then i no longer believe that automated trading is a way to go - it worked for me for just over a year and then as you say FUBAR.
I dont think it's possible yet to programme a computer with the instinct that a trader has. I'm sure that in the future someone will prove me wrong, but as yet i've not seen it.
I actually now find trading so easy that I couldnt be bothered to automate it - trading is a numbers game - take enough of em and hold on to em when they win and you can't fail - all you need is time and money - both of which sadly most traders do not seem to possess. They want everything today in a hurry and don't have the funds to even trade with a long term conviction.
Trading is 'the long game' - that takes money and time. Thankfully I think that i've now found that out. I very rarely go below a daily chart anymore and that's where the real money is.
Tarrentino: Soul, very very interesting stuff in your blogs. I have spent the last three years messing about with automated system development but have yet to get the smooth equity curve we're all searching for. My systems worked well over 2-3 years but there was always one period which made the whole thing FUBAR. Got an article being published in e-Forex in Jan which you might find slightly interesting although there's nothing revolutionary. Are you an ex bank trader?
hi tarrentino - (your films suck by the way :) ) seriously tho, no, not a bank trader just a self taught trader but i have met with many bank traders and know the score.
Automated systems can work but i don't believe they will for retail traders over the long term - the mega players have them that win but they take very small wins that we can't get because of retail spreads - institutions have spreads as low as 0.1 pip and often zero - those people have automated systems.
There's also the calibre of programming tools at our disposal - Until we get some real artificial intelligence then i no longer believe that automated trading is a way to go - it worked for me for just over a year and then as you say FUBAR.
I dont think it's possible yet to programme a computer with the instinct that a trader has. I'm sure that in the future someone will prove me wrong, but as yet i've not seen it.
I actually now find trading so easy that I couldnt be bothered to automate it - trading is a numbers game - take enough of em and hold on to em when they win and you can't fail - all you need is time and money - both of which sadly most traders do not seem to possess. They want everything today in a hurry and don't have the funds to even trade with a long term conviction.
Trading is 'the long game' - that takes money and time. Thankfully I think that i've now found that out. I very rarely go below a daily chart anymore and that's where the real money is.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
xmas eve
Stops moved to be on all positions, might close out before close of business today and call it quits for the year.
Catch ya later if i make changes, if not MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Catch ya later if i make changes, if not MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Monday, December 22, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
Thursday, December 18, 2008
that's it!
USDCHF closed at 1.0700 for +1070 pips - nice one.
it may well continue to bollock down now however i think there will be sufficient profit taking around here to hold it up.
My little punt didnt give it enough roon, c'est la vie' as they say so -33 on that one
I'm not sure i'm interested in any more trades this side of Christmas but keep checking, im scalping shorts on gbpusd this morning for fun but won't be making calls.
scores on the doors are:
Closed Results +3433 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month +859 Pips on closed trades
stay lucky
it may well continue to bollock down now however i think there will be sufficient profit taking around here to hold it up.
My little punt didnt give it enough roon, c'est la vie' as they say so -33 on that one
I'm not sure i'm interested in any more trades this side of Christmas but keep checking, im scalping shorts on gbpusd this morning for fun but won't be making calls.
scores on the doors are:
Closed Results +3433 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month +859 Pips on closed trades
stay lucky
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
punt
popping a punt on usdchf for the possible bounce also -
NEW TRADE long usdchf @ 1.0703 IF SEEN sl@ 1.0670 so only a 33 pip risk for a possible 600 pips ish trade if the bounce is significant. worth a punt if you ask me for a standard stake.
NEW TRADE long usdchf @ 1.0703 IF SEEN sl@ 1.0670 so only a 33 pip risk for a possible 600 pips ish trade if the bounce is significant. worth a punt if you ask me for a standard stake.
take profit level
Normally i dont do 'take profits' cos i believe that you let em run.
however this move is a bit off from the norm so i'm placing a take profit at 1.0700.
Reason ive chosen that level is from the september lows - there is almost bound to be a bounce back retrace there and then i'll be looking to get back in.
That will be yet another 1000+ pip trade though - see what i mean about waiting your time. its currently at 1.0800 at +960 pips and i dont normally visit the blog at this time of day, but i thought i'd post the take profit decided upon so no nobhead can say 'yes, its easy in hindsight' when in fact it's easy no matter what!
catch you in the morn
however this move is a bit off from the norm so i'm placing a take profit at 1.0700.
Reason ive chosen that level is from the september lows - there is almost bound to be a bounce back retrace there and then i'll be looking to get back in.
That will be yet another 1000+ pip trade though - see what i mean about waiting your time. its currently at 1.0800 at +960 pips and i dont normally visit the blog at this time of day, but i thought i'd post the take profit decided upon so no nobhead can say 'yes, its easy in hindsight' when in fact it's easy no matter what!
catch you in the morn
midweek
see, all good things come to those who wait!
usdchf now 600+ - 500 pip trailer is in place. lets see how far this will go.
of course chances are if you are an unseasoned trader you wouldnt have got this far - took your money early and spent the rest of this week kicking yourself.
another lesson then - patience is a virtue, especially in trading.
speak soon
usdchf now 600+ - 500 pip trailer is in place. lets see how far this will go.
of course chances are if you are an unseasoned trader you wouldnt have got this far - took your money early and spent the rest of this week kicking yourself.
another lesson then - patience is a virtue, especially in trading.
speak soon
Monday, December 15, 2008
new week
New week then - the usdchf order to short kicked in Friday afternoon and is now 50 up. stop is at 1.2030
Nothing else interesting - been doing some scalping on cable to get the account back up - did about 80 pips on Friday and -11 this morning but feel free to ignore those - no way i could call them live!
Nothing else looks any use long term so i'm hanging off for maybe till the new year - very busy this end - did i tell you i'm a radio DJ?
Anyway, catch you soon
Nothing else interesting - been doing some scalping on cable to get the account back up - did about 80 pips on Friday and -11 this morning but feel free to ignore those - no way i could call them live!
Nothing else looks any use long term so i'm hanging off for maybe till the new year - very busy this end - did i tell you i'm a radio DJ?
Anyway, catch you soon
Thursday, December 11, 2008
GBPCAD failed - half position remember so -85 pips
Closed Results +2396 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month -211 Pips on closed trades
this month is getting tedious - leaving the market for a few days.
have actually done a little short term trading this morning to get the account back up a bit but not listing them here cos not real time.
catch you soon when the market begins to move again
Closed Results +2396 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month -211 Pips on closed trades
this month is getting tedious - leaving the market for a few days.
have actually done a little short term trading this morning to get the account back up a bit but not listing them here cos not real time.
catch you soon when the market begins to move again
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
shitstorm then - cad closed for the +33 pips, cadchf closed -146 pips, eurchf still running but looking a bit sick.
never mind.
Closed Results +2481 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month -148 Pips on closed trades
nothing much interesting at the mo on the charts, 4 hour looks tempting for cable and might take a punt later when i'm out. also like this one
NEW TRADE shoirt gbpcad half position @ 1.8581 sl 1.8750
might be a fast one just to redress the balance for the month - cant see anything else.
never mind.
Closed Results +2481 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month -148 Pips on closed trades
nothing much interesting at the mo on the charts, 4 hour looks tempting for cable and might take a punt later when i'm out. also like this one
NEW TRADE shoirt gbpcad half position @ 1.8581 sl 1.8750
might be a fast one just to redress the balance for the month - cant see anything else.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Sunday night 7th dec 2008
ok, update, sorry couldnt do this on Friday but was busy as hell.
eurchf stop was moved to 1.5425 which was hit and taken out for -100 pips.
usdcad went to over +500 at one point so the trailing stop kicked in (500 pip trailer) - stop is currently 1.2507 locking in an amazing 33 pips lol.
so far the month has done fuck all worth bothering with. some will be saying - "yes, but if you had taken say 200 pips on each trade then you would be well up now" and yes, i would - but i dont trade that way - all i want is one good trade a month that makes say 1000 pips and i'm made - to find that one trade takes some shit shovelling.
so far weve had lots of minuses for a couple of hunreds and a few wins which matches em up
Closed Results +2594 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month -35 Pips on closed trades
I dont sit here all day watching the markets - I have other businesses that i'm in to and so only trade for prob an hour a day and then just leave em alone.
Now, usdcad could go for new highs and properley break the top - i'll be having a good look in the next day or so and might start moving the stop up closer -0 lets see how it unfolds. currently +250
I note that it's now 87p for a euro - thanks a bunch Gordon Brown you fuckwit. he thinks that a weak pound will spur the recovery from imports - oi thicko!! they don't have any money abroad either you thick scottish twat!
anyway,
NEW TRADE SHORT CADCHF@0.9574 SL 0.9720 -nice low risk trade - retrace from the downtrend on friday leaving it at a clearly identifiable resistance level to short.
another interesting one - even tho i got stopped out of this on Friday im back in
EURCHF short from the open on @ 1.5529 and a 100 pip stop - some serious resistance around here and i still see a downtrend so still worth a punt.
Nothing else interesting - stay lucky!
eurchf stop was moved to 1.5425 which was hit and taken out for -100 pips.
usdcad went to over +500 at one point so the trailing stop kicked in (500 pip trailer) - stop is currently 1.2507 locking in an amazing 33 pips lol.
so far the month has done fuck all worth bothering with. some will be saying - "yes, but if you had taken say 200 pips on each trade then you would be well up now" and yes, i would - but i dont trade that way - all i want is one good trade a month that makes say 1000 pips and i'm made - to find that one trade takes some shit shovelling.
so far weve had lots of minuses for a couple of hunreds and a few wins which matches em up
Closed Results +2594 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
This Month -35 Pips on closed trades
I dont sit here all day watching the markets - I have other businesses that i'm in to and so only trade for prob an hour a day and then just leave em alone.
Now, usdcad could go for new highs and properley break the top - i'll be having a good look in the next day or so and might start moving the stop up closer -0 lets see how it unfolds. currently +250
I note that it's now 87p for a euro - thanks a bunch Gordon Brown you fuckwit. he thinks that a weak pound will spur the recovery from imports - oi thicko!! they don't have any money abroad either you thick scottish twat!
anyway,
NEW TRADE SHORT CADCHF@0.9574 SL 0.9720 -nice low risk trade - retrace from the downtrend on friday leaving it at a clearly identifiable resistance level to short.
another interesting one - even tho i got stopped out of this on Friday im back in
EURCHF short from the open on @ 1.5529 and a 100 pip stop - some serious resistance around here and i still see a downtrend so still worth a punt.
Nothing else interesting - stay lucky!
Friday, December 05, 2008
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Thurs 4 dec 08
No change to existing trades, looks like cad is starting to move but i dont expect fast moves on this, might be in a week or so
got a funny feeling about usdchf - take a look at the monthly chart, it's actually a bearish pair overall on a retrace - interested to see if she breaks down so in anticipation im putting in an order at 1.7770 for short with an expiry next weekend.
there are a few more trades i'd like to take, however the market just doesnt 'look right' to me at the moment - i cant really find anything apart from nzdusd short that looks low risk and I just dont like looking at nzdusd at the mo.
so that'll do for now.
if you're thinking about shorting the pound then remember - sell the rumour buy the fact - i have a feeling this will be the play today and if i was around i'd buy cable just before noon with a tight stop - they are all expoecting another big drop - personally i dont think it will happen so a possible news fact trade there.
then again what the fuck do i know - just follow the money and you can't go wrong!
got a funny feeling about usdchf - take a look at the monthly chart, it's actually a bearish pair overall on a retrace - interested to see if she breaks down so in anticipation im putting in an order at 1.7770 for short with an expiry next weekend.
there are a few more trades i'd like to take, however the market just doesnt 'look right' to me at the moment - i cant really find anything apart from nzdusd short that looks low risk and I just dont like looking at nzdusd at the mo.
so that'll do for now.
if you're thinking about shorting the pound then remember - sell the rumour buy the fact - i have a feeling this will be the play today and if i was around i'd buy cable just before noon with a tight stop - they are all expoecting another big drop - personally i dont think it will happen so a possible news fact trade there.
then again what the fuck do i know - just follow the money and you can't go wrong!
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
close
eurjpy closed at +130 on stop
new trade made yesterday but losing so i guess it's alright to post
short eurchf @1.5325 stop at 1.5450
That's it - market still skittish, not that interested at present
Closed Results +2694 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
new trade made yesterday but losing so i guess it's alright to post
short eurchf @1.5325 stop at 1.5450
That's it - market still skittish, not that interested at present
Closed Results +2694 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Monday, December 01, 2008
-130 on gbpaud remember tho was a half position so -65 pips - also it's a 65% pair so risk was very low.
Eurjpy stop moved to 120.30 now a bet to nothing. Dont normally move em so fast but it might just go retrace tomorrow - can always get back in again around 121.50
Closed Results +2564 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Keep an eye on eurchf. a retrace back to 1.5350 or higher tomorrow will see me consider an entry short.
gbpaud now looks good to short following the retrace back 400 pips - almost guaranteeed to drop back down and test those lows again. hmmm, will consider.
nothing yet tho, speak tomorrow
Eurjpy stop moved to 120.30 now a bet to nothing. Dont normally move em so fast but it might just go retrace tomorrow - can always get back in again around 121.50
Closed Results +2564 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Keep an eye on eurchf. a retrace back to 1.5350 or higher tomorrow will see me consider an entry short.
gbpaud now looks good to short following the retrace back 400 pips - almost guaranteeed to drop back down and test those lows again. hmmm, will consider.
nothing yet tho, speak tomorrow
another
ok, one more chancer then - half position on this as it's risk is higher
gbpaud long at 2.3600 stop at 2.3470
gbpaud long at 2.3600 stop at 2.3470
new chancer
fancy a chancer on eurjpy tonight so gone short @120.70
theres a few i fancy but the markets skittish so this will do for starters
theres a few i fancy but the markets skittish so this will do for starters
Friday, November 28, 2008
no trades
EURAUD closed for -200 which might upset some people because at one point it was 300 up. Doesnt matter, as i said earlier you get periods of losers until the market takes off again but you have to give them the roiom they need under the current conditions you are operating in.
Lets not also forget that it's just a 66% pair (pip value is just65.90 per mio)
Nothing interests me now so i guess we might be settling here for the month
Closed Results +2629 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
That makes 1458 pips for November, That's a good month. 700 pips for me and 758 for the pot - always make sure you pay yourself, ive known traders with 1mio accounts that drive around in a battered ford and then go and lose a shitload - always take some out when you win.
Looking forward to December as it's often been a boom month.
Stay Lucky
Lets not also forget that it's just a 66% pair (pip value is just65.90 per mio)
Nothing interests me now so i guess we might be settling here for the month
Closed Results +2629 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
That makes 1458 pips for November, That's a good month. 700 pips for me and 758 for the pot - always make sure you pay yourself, ive known traders with 1mio accounts that drive around in a battered ford and then go and lose a shitload - always take some out when you win.
Looking forward to December as it's often been a boom month.
Stay Lucky
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
closes.
Ok, some closes now then
usdchf closed on stop at 1.2140 for +320 pips. not bad from what i thought would be really crap.
usdjpy closed on stop at 96.52 for +112, poor performance from that trade.
gbpaud closed on stop at 2.3270 for -261 pips.
audusd closed on stop at 6450 for +112 pips.
gbpchf is still running with a break even stop and my little chancer from earlier tonight isnt looking good but we will see.
Overall this changes the pip count by +283 on closed trades
Closed Results +2759 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
for the sake of this blog i count a pip as a pip - but something for you to think about is wether all pips are created equal (ask George Orwell lol), which they arent. for a true pip count one would have to calculate the pip based on pip value per contract.
I'll explain this to you. A pip on gbpusd is worth $100 for each $mio traded. However on usdchf the same contract is only worth $83.70 and on gbpaud the price is $63.50. to get a true pip count in value one would have to multiply the pips made by the per contract price - so for example 500 pips on gbpusd is 500 wheras 500 pips on euraud is actually only 325 pips (500 X 0.65) amd another example is that -261 you see above is really -170 - lol, that'll keep you happy for a while.
Don't worry, i'm not going to change the count for this blog, but it might make you think to check the pip value when calculating the risk you are taking - a 300 pip risk on euraud for example is equivalent to a 195 pip risk on cable.
Interesting eh?
Anyway, bit of turmoil expected in the next few days so i think i'll be playing things a little light for a while and may just stay out of the market till something really juicy comes along. Check back tomorrow night for any news.
Be Lucky.
Ok, some closes now then
usdchf closed on stop at 1.2140 for +320 pips. not bad from what i thought would be really crap.
usdjpy closed on stop at 96.52 for +112, poor performance from that trade.
gbpaud closed on stop at 2.3270 for -261 pips.
audusd closed on stop at 6450 for +112 pips.
gbpchf is still running with a break even stop and my little chancer from earlier tonight isnt looking good but we will see.
Overall this changes the pip count by +283 on closed trades
Closed Results +2759 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
for the sake of this blog i count a pip as a pip - but something for you to think about is wether all pips are created equal (ask George Orwell lol), which they arent. for a true pip count one would have to calculate the pip based on pip value per contract.
I'll explain this to you. A pip on gbpusd is worth $100 for each $mio traded. However on usdchf the same contract is only worth $83.70 and on gbpaud the price is $63.50. to get a true pip count in value one would have to multiply the pips made by the per contract price - so for example 500 pips on gbpusd is 500 wheras 500 pips on euraud is actually only 325 pips (500 X 0.65) amd another example is that -261 you see above is really -170 - lol, that'll keep you happy for a while.
Don't worry, i'm not going to change the count for this blog, but it might make you think to check the pip value when calculating the risk you are taking - a 300 pip risk on euraud for example is equivalent to a 195 pip risk on cable.
Interesting eh?
Anyway, bit of turmoil expected in the next few days so i think i'll be playing things a little light for a while and may just stay out of the market till something really juicy comes along. Check back tomorrow night for any news.
Be Lucky.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
new week
stop moved tp break even on gbpchf
stop moved to 0.9652 on usdjpy
stop moved usdchf 1.2140
new trade, bit of a chancer for big reward. long gbpaud 2.3531 stop @2.3270. potential risk / reward around 8:1 or more.
thats it, good luck :)
Closed Results +2476 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
stop moved to 0.9652 on usdjpy
stop moved usdchf 1.2140
new trade, bit of a chancer for big reward. long gbpaud 2.3531 stop @2.3270. potential risk / reward around 8:1 or more.
thats it, good luck :)
Closed Results +2476 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
changes
A few changes then and a new trade
stop moved on usdchf to 1.2070
stop moved on usdjpy to 97.25
stop moved on audusd to 0.6450
USDCAD short order cancelled
NEW TRADE low risk stop - long gbpchf 1.8000 120 pip stop 1.7880
That's it for now :)
stop moved on usdchf to 1.2070
stop moved on usdjpy to 97.25
stop moved on audusd to 0.6450
USDCAD short order cancelled
NEW TRADE low risk stop - long gbpchf 1.8000 120 pip stop 1.7880
That's it for now :)
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
no changes
no changesto report. almost getting tempted back short into cable but think it may just be some up and down for a while so leaving alone.
swissy now making some headway at +300, usdjpy still lagging as is audusd - all in positive though. happy to sit on my hands for a while and advise the same.
swissy now making some headway at +300, usdjpy still lagging as is audusd - all in positive though. happy to sit on my hands for a while and advise the same.
Monday, November 17, 2008
update - taking profits
Ok, update time.
Cable closed on stop on both positions - this made +955 on one position and +565 on position two
a total of +1520 pips.
Closed Results +2476 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Still running is USDCHF at +159 stop moving to 1.1870 to lock in some profit allbeit only a bit. Lets face it swissy has been shit.
Usdjpy still running also, moving stop on that to break even at 9764
audusd stop move to 0.6635.
everything looks ready to turn for a while so now holding back on new positions except for one - New order short USDCAD at 1.2080 IF SEEN 500 pips stop - order good till 7pm Friday.
everything else can wait a while
catch ya tomorrow
Cable closed on stop on both positions - this made +955 on one position and +565 on position two
a total of +1520 pips.
Closed Results +2476 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Still running is USDCHF at +159 stop moving to 1.1870 to lock in some profit allbeit only a bit. Lets face it swissy has been shit.
Usdjpy still running also, moving stop on that to break even at 9764
audusd stop move to 0.6635.
everything looks ready to turn for a while so now holding back on new positions except for one - New order short USDCAD at 1.2080 IF SEEN 500 pips stop - order good till 7pm Friday.
everything else can wait a while
catch ya tomorrow
Sunday, November 16, 2008
new week
Sunday night always a bit of a nail biter - will it gap? will it go my way?
well it didnt gap and all still going as expected.
usdcad still setting up for a potential 'fool me' trade, would need to drop from here and then go to 1.1300, long signal would be triggered at that level. - I'll explain it i it comes off next week.
It wouldnt suprise me this week if we did see more of the falling pound but you never know, cable is ready for some serious retracing back to 1.56 ish to test that level that stemmed the third fall. so would need some good news to make that happen. all the ellioticians are saying it was wave five, or is it the b move etc etc.
take my advice - all that is bollocks. just follow price and give it room. just learn to manage risk and forget the direction you want to choose - far too much time is spent on your 'system' or decision. learn to manage risk and you'll do ok.
So funny last week seeing Gordon Brown talk about tax cuts, the one man that made taking money out of your pocket without you knowing it asks for tax cuts - amazing!
Funny thing is he's going to borrow money to try to buy himself out of a recession. - another 20 billion or so to give you in tax cuts so you spend it - why not just not give it out and save it you fucking moron.
Let me ask you a question; if you were in a deep hole that was leaking shit from below that kept getting bigger and bigger - what would you need to get out? a bigger spade and some more digging so more shit an come in?
What a twat.
well it didnt gap and all still going as expected.
usdcad still setting up for a potential 'fool me' trade, would need to drop from here and then go to 1.1300, long signal would be triggered at that level. - I'll explain it i it comes off next week.
It wouldnt suprise me this week if we did see more of the falling pound but you never know, cable is ready for some serious retracing back to 1.56 ish to test that level that stemmed the third fall. so would need some good news to make that happen. all the ellioticians are saying it was wave five, or is it the b move etc etc.
take my advice - all that is bollocks. just follow price and give it room. just learn to manage risk and forget the direction you want to choose - far too much time is spent on your 'system' or decision. learn to manage risk and you'll do ok.
So funny last week seeing Gordon Brown talk about tax cuts, the one man that made taking money out of your pocket without you knowing it asks for tax cuts - amazing!
Funny thing is he's going to borrow money to try to buy himself out of a recession. - another 20 billion or so to give you in tax cuts so you spend it - why not just not give it out and save it you fucking moron.
Let me ask you a question; if you were in a deep hole that was leaking shit from below that kept getting bigger and bigger - what would you need to get out? a bigger spade and some more digging so more shit an come in?
What a twat.
Friday, November 14, 2008
end of week
stop on cable moved now to 1.5025, swissy moved to break even cos it's shit. no other changes. all to run over thge weekend unless stops hit tonight.
have a good weekend all
have a good weekend all
Thursday, November 13, 2008
update 2
wow what a day!
cable now dropping like a nutcase - 500 pip trail now in the same place on both positions. actually saw 1300+ pips on pos1 today and over 1000 on pos 2.
swissy looking crap still and usdjpy made a mean retrace. got a feeling that might die before morning as my stop is 9840. it came within 10 pips today.
hoping cable continues, stop currently 1.5063 on both positions. would think that cable is due a strong retrace but hey, dont catch a falling knife!
if nothing else happens now i've made my money for November and still two weeks to go. Fill ya boots as we say :)
no change on audusd
That's it, catch you soon.
cable now dropping like a nutcase - 500 pip trail now in the same place on both positions. actually saw 1300+ pips on pos1 today and over 1000 on pos 2.
swissy looking crap still and usdjpy made a mean retrace. got a feeling that might die before morning as my stop is 9840. it came within 10 pips today.
hoping cable continues, stop currently 1.5063 on both positions. would think that cable is due a strong retrace but hey, dont catch a falling knife!
if nothing else happens now i've made my money for November and still two weeks to go. Fill ya boots as we say :)
no change on audusd
That's it, catch you soon.
update
Mornin'
Cable steaming ahead now - position 1 is +1105 pips, poition 2 +721 pips, both full positions. 500pip trailer is holdin the stop at 1.5320, bit too close for my liking really, would have preferred 1.5520 to stay above yesterdays range but then it was a large day. will leave the 500 trail in.
Swissy is holding up the rear tho not doing much, don't know sometimes why i bother with swissy but it's 106 up - not far enough to move the stop yet.
usdjpy finally made it's move also +230 as i write. stop remains at 98.40 so no locked in profit yet.
audusd now 160 up on yesterdays new position, stop moved to 0.6735.
that's it, nothing new i want to risk.
this then is typical of a daily chart trader - last week we lost a few hundred pips - cant remember how many but around 400-500 pips in several trades. then you find good ones and ride em like a cowboy on a bronco. cable has been in since the 3rd nov so 10 days already but remember that was my second bite at cable.
so my impressive +1400 in 2 days score went down to 900, but now looking at +2000 in open trades. Providing you trade small enough and manage your risk then you can make good money even at a few dollars a pip.
That's it, off for the day - hope you have luck.
Closed Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Cable steaming ahead now - position 1 is +1105 pips, poition 2 +721 pips, both full positions. 500pip trailer is holdin the stop at 1.5320, bit too close for my liking really, would have preferred 1.5520 to stay above yesterdays range but then it was a large day. will leave the 500 trail in.
Swissy is holding up the rear tho not doing much, don't know sometimes why i bother with swissy but it's 106 up - not far enough to move the stop yet.
usdjpy finally made it's move also +230 as i write. stop remains at 98.40 so no locked in profit yet.
audusd now 160 up on yesterdays new position, stop moved to 0.6735.
that's it, nothing new i want to risk.
this then is typical of a daily chart trader - last week we lost a few hundred pips - cant remember how many but around 400-500 pips in several trades. then you find good ones and ride em like a cowboy on a bronco. cable has been in since the 3rd nov so 10 days already but remember that was my second bite at cable.
so my impressive +1400 in 2 days score went down to 900, but now looking at +2000 in open trades. Providing you trade small enough and manage your risk then you can make good money even at a few dollars a pip.
That's it, off for the day - hope you have luck.
Closed Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Update
Just my luck, gbpchf kept going! ahh well, can't win em all.
Cable now making it's money on two positions. Pos 1 is +600 and pos 2 +200 if 1.5250 goes we should be in clover for a while. stops moved to 1.5890 and a 500 pip trailing stop activated.
usdjpy isnt doing what i expect tho still hanging onto it - at the mo going from plus to minus hourly but still biased shorty. in fact i like it a lot so still chance to get in if you arent - stop is moved to 99.60
Swissy (usdchf) kicked in and is now long for small + numbers, stop remains at same level of 1.1670
New trade short audusd at 6562 stop at 7060 - that will make or break today or tomorrow.
that's enough trades in but for info a few 'fool me' trades are starting to setup. usdcad looks a good candidate - first a lift to a lower high, then a drop to 1.1300 to pull the suckers in short and go long at that level - classic 'fool me' trade if the lower high forms. there are quite a few of these setting up at the mo.
That's it for now, good luck!
Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Cable now making it's money on two positions. Pos 1 is +600 and pos 2 +200 if 1.5250 goes we should be in clover for a while. stops moved to 1.5890 and a 500 pip trailing stop activated.
usdjpy isnt doing what i expect tho still hanging onto it - at the mo going from plus to minus hourly but still biased shorty. in fact i like it a lot so still chance to get in if you arent - stop is moved to 99.60
Swissy (usdchf) kicked in and is now long for small + numbers, stop remains at same level of 1.1670
New trade short audusd at 6562 stop at 7060 - that will make or break today or tomorrow.
that's enough trades in but for info a few 'fool me' trades are starting to setup. usdcad looks a good candidate - first a lift to a lower high, then a drop to 1.1300 to pull the suckers in short and go long at that level - classic 'fool me' trade if the lower high forms. there are quite a few of these setting up at the mo.
That's it for now, good luck!
Results +956 Pips since Oct 23rd 2008.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Thursday, November 06, 2008
fun time
ok, market beginning to make it's move so some trades to take
lets update whats running to start with
gbpusd - 2nd position now in so stop on all now at 1.6125. first position is almost 400 up but still nothing locked in on profit, hopefully tomorrow night can lock some in
gbpchf still short stop at 1.8829 so no profits locked yet
New Trade - USDJPY short @ 97.64 stop @ 101.25
That's enough running for now., very tempted to go short audjpy with a 350 pip stop so if youve nothing running you might like that one, nice 1000 pip target minimum at 3:1.
anyway, catch ya soon
lets update whats running to start with
gbpusd - 2nd position now in so stop on all now at 1.6125. first position is almost 400 up but still nothing locked in on profit, hopefully tomorrow night can lock some in
gbpchf still short stop at 1.8829 so no profits locked yet
New Trade - USDJPY short @ 97.64 stop @ 101.25
That's enough running for now., very tempted to go short audjpy with a 350 pip stop so if youve nothing running you might like that one, nice 1000 pip target minimum at 3:1.
anyway, catch ya soon
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
mistake
not very often a mistake goes in my favor - didnt place the stop any trades so all still running.
no changes tonight
cable stop is 1.6425 and not 6125 as prev stated - the 6125 is on the new position if it kicks in @5590
sorry for the confusion
no changes tonight
cable stop is 1.6425 and not 6125 as prev stated - the 6125 is on the new position if it kicks in @5590
sorry for the confusion
update
usdcad died so minus 100 on that one.
Cable went from +380 to -125 and now back again, this is the thing with longer term trading, especially in volatile times - you have to be able to ride the dragon sometimes.
I'm now moving the stop on cable to 1.6125 which reduces my risk to about 150 pips ish. I'm also going to place a second position on in the form of a breakout order so short gbpusd @1.5590 if seen
new trade also short gbpchf @1.8584, may also add to this position if 1.8320 is broken. stop is at 1.8750.
Results +871 Pips since Oct 23rd
ps, canx audusd order
Cable went from +380 to -125 and now back again, this is the thing with longer term trading, especially in volatile times - you have to be able to ride the dragon sometimes.
I'm now moving the stop on cable to 1.6125 which reduces my risk to about 150 pips ish. I'm also going to place a second position on in the form of a breakout order so short gbpusd @1.5590 if seen
new trade also short gbpchf @1.8584, may also add to this position if 1.8320 is broken. stop is at 1.8750.
Results +871 Pips since Oct 23rd
ps, canx audusd order
Monday, November 03, 2008
update
cable off an running , currently +200
New order placed on audusd short if 0.6536 seen half position
taking a low risk long on usd cad with 100 pip stop from 1.1825 - potential is 12:1 rr so worth the risk.
chfjpy look interesting for a break below 8350 but got enough running now.
check back for update tomorrow
New order placed on audusd short if 0.6536 seen half position
taking a low risk long on usd cad with 100 pip stop from 1.1825 - potential is 12:1 rr so worth the risk.
chfjpy look interesting for a break below 8350 but got enough running now.
check back for update tomorrow
dead
euraud dead - minus 400 pips but half position so -200
Cumulitive Results +971 Pips since Oct 23rd
order placed to short cable at 1.5970, apart from that standing aside for a while
Cumulitive Results +971 Pips since Oct 23rd
order placed to short cable at 1.5970, apart from that standing aside for a while
Friday, October 31, 2008
new trade
cable about to die i think but still there as i write
looking like returns to trend could be in so taking a half position long on euraud from 1.9215 with a 400 pip stop.
this is a low risk trade with upside potential of 1500 pips or more. good risk reward is the key to trading and staying in the game, as I said before I do have a fair few losers trrading this way but the winners far outweigh the losers.
there, cable dead at -200 as i write
Cumulitive Results +1171 Pips since Oct 23rd
looking like returns to trend could be in so taking a half position long on euraud from 1.9215 with a 400 pip stop.
this is a low risk trade with upside potential of 1500 pips or more. good risk reward is the key to trading and staying in the game, as I said before I do have a fair few losers trrading this way but the winners far outweigh the losers.
there, cable dead at -200 as i write
Cumulitive Results +1171 Pips since Oct 23rd
Thursday, October 30, 2008
new trade
Taking a flyer on cable long - just putting a toe in the water to see if things are truly turning.
Long at 1.6377 with a 200 pip stop at 1.6277
time for a retrace it may be but i'm not fully confident yet. a single trade may get the ball rolling if it is truly a turn around. tomorrow will tell - might be looking for something else if this turns good.
Long at 1.6377 with a 200 pip stop at 1.6277
time for a retrace it may be but i'm not fully confident yet. a single trade may get the ball rolling if it is truly a turn around. tomorrow will tell - might be looking for something else if this turns good.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
nothing doing
think i'll leaave it for a few days - market is in flux so nothing is a safe trade.
was tempted to short gbpchf with around a 200 pip stop but leaving it, everything looks to be retracing and possibly turning. Only need a few good trades a month to make a good living and october is taken care of so no rush.
Have fun
was tempted to short gbpchf with around a 200 pip stop but leaving it, everything looks to be retracing and possibly turning. Only need a few good trades a month to make a good living and october is taken care of so no rush.
Have fun
and the next
AUDCHF also gone now on stop
shorted 0.7793 closed at 0.7325 result 468 pips
Cumulitive Results +1371 Pips since Oct 23rd
all trades closed, nothing new remotely intresting as yet.
check back tomorrow
shorted 0.7793 closed at 0.7325 result 468 pips
Cumulitive Results +1371 Pips since Oct 23rd
all trades closed, nothing new remotely intresting as yet.
check back tomorrow
Monday, October 27, 2008
one down ...
one down then - EURAUD was taken out by 3 pips at the stop
entry 1.9277 stopped out 2.0180 result +903 pips
AUDCHF still running no change to stop
Cumulitive Results +903 Pips since Oct 23rd
entry 1.9277 stopped out 2.0180 result +903 pips
AUDCHF still running no change to stop
Cumulitive Results +903 Pips since Oct 23rd
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Stops move
Stops moving on both open positions then
AUDCHF is now +330 ish - stop moved to break even
EURAUD is now +730 stop moving to 1.9180 - still leaving around a 100 pip risk on this trade
the audcadI was observing has now started to move so will see where it sits tonight, a retrace back to 8300 by close will see me consider an entry.
Nice overnight trades running there.
Have a good day all :)
AUDCHF is now +330 ish - stop moved to break even
EURAUD is now +730 stop moving to 1.9180 - still leaving around a 100 pip risk on this trade
the audcadI was observing has now started to move so will see where it sits tonight, a retrace back to 8300 by close will see me consider an entry.
Nice overnight trades running there.
Have a good day all :)
Thursday, October 23, 2008
new trade
Ok, just taken a new trade - taking this one small because of the recent volatility on this pair - just $1 per pip.
Last time i took this two weeks ago it netted over $1500 at $1 a pip so worth doing.
Long EURAUD 1.9277 stop at 1.8880 - almost 400 pips. I think we will either see new highs or it will correct back down to the 1.81 area. 400 pips risk for a potential 2000+ pip gain means a 5:1 rr ratio.
lets see.
keeping an eye on audcad for a return to trend (short) as it's currently testing previous support around 0.8400. not taking it yet though, will watch tomorrow morning and tomorrow night.
2nd trade is short AUDCHF from 7793 stop 7925 target new lows. $2 per pip
PS, as you see these trades take shape you will see quite a few losers - but when they win they typically win big. all trade sizes mentioned are for a typical $10k account.
The market may be going into a flux state as i call it where it's undecided - at these times i typically take small positions just to get in the potential trades - if i get two or three losers then i'll sit back and wait a while.
You'll get used to these periods as we go on.
Fingers Crossed then.
Last time i took this two weeks ago it netted over $1500 at $1 a pip so worth doing.
Long EURAUD 1.9277 stop at 1.8880 - almost 400 pips. I think we will either see new highs or it will correct back down to the 1.81 area. 400 pips risk for a potential 2000+ pip gain means a 5:1 rr ratio.
lets see.
keeping an eye on audcad for a return to trend (short) as it's currently testing previous support around 0.8400. not taking it yet though, will watch tomorrow morning and tomorrow night.
2nd trade is short AUDCHF from 7793 stop 7925 target new lows. $2 per pip
PS, as you see these trades take shape you will see quite a few losers - but when they win they typically win big. all trade sizes mentioned are for a typical $10k account.
The market may be going into a flux state as i call it where it's undecided - at these times i typically take small positions just to get in the potential trades - if i get two or three losers then i'll sit back and wait a while.
You'll get used to these periods as we go on.
Fingers Crossed then.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Hi all
Hi everyone.
Seen a few questions around so thought i'd chat.
No, I have not blown my account however i did have a hard time for the last few months - heck if leahmans can die then what chance do we have eh?
I lost some accounts too (clients) but i did expect that and am sad that it happened.
Life goes on though I've pulled back in October creating a large gain but i'm not going to start harping on and telling you how much because it's pointless and no-one would believe it anyway.
Im now trading daily charts on longer term trades and have done very well. Im in several positions at the mo but won't tell you what they are as they are already running.
I will however from now on for a while post any new trades i take for your entertainment so keep an eye on the blog if you want a laugh.
I'm now in another business also completely removed from trading and that is taking up a lot of my time so daily charts are really the only way i can go.
I could never do them before because i was sat here all day and i'd just fiddle with trades. Now i'm not here i just take em at night around 11pm or in the morning around 7am and dont see them until the next check, they win or lose.
Anyway, time will tell as i'll report em here as we go on. Might be a while though because i'm in five trades as we stand.
catch you soon.
Seen a few questions around so thought i'd chat.
No, I have not blown my account however i did have a hard time for the last few months - heck if leahmans can die then what chance do we have eh?
I lost some accounts too (clients) but i did expect that and am sad that it happened.
Life goes on though I've pulled back in October creating a large gain but i'm not going to start harping on and telling you how much because it's pointless and no-one would believe it anyway.
Im now trading daily charts on longer term trades and have done very well. Im in several positions at the mo but won't tell you what they are as they are already running.
I will however from now on for a while post any new trades i take for your entertainment so keep an eye on the blog if you want a laugh.
I'm now in another business also completely removed from trading and that is taking up a lot of my time so daily charts are really the only way i can go.
I could never do them before because i was sat here all day and i'd just fiddle with trades. Now i'm not here i just take em at night around 11pm or in the morning around 7am and dont see them until the next check, they win or lose.
Anyway, time will tell as i'll report em here as we go on. Might be a while though because i'm in five trades as we stand.
catch you soon.
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Delta 7 Gains 21% for April!
The Delta 7 managed account has produced superb results for April 2008 continuing the account highs for another month.
March losses were smashed and a great gain on top - this often happens after losing months.
Expected shocks in the banking sector did not happen and as such we had smoother runs without opposing forces changing direction and shaking us out of trades.
The average gain of managed accounts this month under Delta 7 was 21% This would show as a gain of $21,000 on a standard 100k account. This gain is based on conservative leverage of just 3:1 which is within most clients comfort zone.
For 2008 the returns so far are 30.5 % gross compounded one of the best available in the forex sector
Delta 7 is still available as an investment vehicle which is operated under a personal POA document and tended to individually. This means that the program can be tailored to suit your level of risk/reward comfort level.
For full information on the program or if you have specific questions then just contact me.
Soultrader.
email managed "at" simpleforexsystems.com
skype: search for 'soultrader desktop'
Friday, April 04, 2008
Managed Accounts - March
Before the managed accounts report just to let you know that there is now a voice chat room for serious traders who like a bit of company during the trading day. - hope to see some of you in there http://squawkbox.ivocalize.net/
A lot of people lost their shirts last month. Hedge funds crashing all over the place, Banks in meltdown, Bear stearns almost going to the wall etc and many traders have been unable to manage risk and are in big trouble.
Delta 7 made a small loss in March of around 7%. The volatility in the markets gave us trends to make money but that same volatility often triggered our safety stops. In a strong trend our stops remain untouched but these moves although strong also have opposite moves just as strong. as such we were unable to ride these trends and instead opted for safety and avoid excessive loss.
This is the first loss on Delta 7 since May 2007 and so is not to be viewed as a system problem.
Figures above based on 3:1 leverage.
Leverage can be customised to fit client risk appetite for an illustration
of various risk levels please email
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
A lot of people lost their shirts last month. Hedge funds crashing all over the place, Banks in meltdown, Bear stearns almost going to the wall etc and many traders have been unable to manage risk and are in big trouble.
Delta 7 made a small loss in March of around 7%. The volatility in the markets gave us trends to make money but that same volatility often triggered our safety stops. In a strong trend our stops remain untouched but these moves although strong also have opposite moves just as strong. as such we were unable to ride these trends and instead opted for safety and avoid excessive loss.
This is the first loss on Delta 7 since May 2007 and so is not to be viewed as a system problem.
| | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
| J | | 2.0 | -2.7 | 9.3 | 6.7 |
| F | | -7.2 | 12.0 | -3.4 | 7.7 |
| M | | 12.4 | 9.1 | -10.3 | -6.1 |
| A | | 6.3 | 10.6 | -1.6 | |
| M | | -6.1 | 22.7 | -7.0 | |
| J | | -2.1 | 3.3 | 0.3 | |
| J | | 22 | 13.9 | 0.6 | |
| A | 3.2 | 1.8 | -4 | 9.8 | |
| S | 13.5 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 11.8 | |
| O | 5.1 | -6.3 | 13.8 | 0 | |
| N | 1.4 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 7.6 | |
| D | 9.0 | 5.0 | -11.1 | 5.6 | |
| Tot | 36.4 | 49.8 | 126.8 | 22.3 | |
Figures above based on 3:1 leverage.
Leverage can be customised to fit client risk appetite for an illustration
of various risk levels please email
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Managed Forex Accounts Update
Sorry for the lack of updates of late. Just been so busy with stuff like signing up with a new capital management company in the states etc.
Account wise i didnt do so well in the back end of 2007 - there were no large losses or anything, just no good gainers. November had a single digit percentage loss and december had very small losses also.
Cyborg was not performing as expected and so I took the decision to reccomend my clients to move the account onto my more successful and sedate Delta 7 programme before it eats away at the gains from August.
Delta 7 has much more historical trading and is my 'workhorse' trading method. Until recently i was tied to using this only with a single investment house in the USA but have since negotiated the right to place my own clients on the programme.
This past month Delta 7 produced 7.7% gain on the month which is about average for the method traded at a modest 3:1 leverage.
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Account wise i didnt do so well in the back end of 2007 - there were no large losses or anything, just no good gainers. November had a single digit percentage loss and december had very small losses also.
Cyborg was not performing as expected and so I took the decision to reccomend my clients to move the account onto my more successful and sedate Delta 7 programme before it eats away at the gains from August.
Delta 7 has much more historical trading and is my 'workhorse' trading method. Until recently i was tied to using this only with a single investment house in the USA but have since negotiated the right to place my own clients on the programme.
This past month Delta 7 produced 7.7% gain on the month which is about average for the method traded at a modest 3:1 leverage.
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Free MT4 Indicator for ya
Hi all,
I've got hold of lots of software for traders using Metatrader 4.
One in particular i've wrote myself :)
it's an info indicator - shows on the chart the swap rate long and short, the pip value per lot, the daily ranges, auto calculates the 2% rule and even gives the high and low for the day. I find it very useful.
If you would like a free copy of it and maybe some other stuff in the future then just send an email to forextraders 'at' getresponse.com sorry I cant give a link but the spambots pick em up like crazy.
I've got hold of lots of software for traders using Metatrader 4.
One in particular i've wrote myself :)
it's an info indicator - shows on the chart the swap rate long and short, the pip value per lot, the daily ranges, auto calculates the 2% rule and even gives the high and low for the day. I find it very useful.
If you would like a free copy of it and maybe some other stuff in the future then just send an email to forextraders 'at' getresponse.com sorry I cant give a link but the spambots pick em up like crazy.
Monday, November 05, 2007
October 2007 Comments and Managed Account Report.
For three weeks of the month I was unwell, with quite a lot of time spent at hospital.
The month finished off with a net loss of 10.3%.
In the second week of the month the mid term trends began to change to short and then changed back again to longs. As a trend trader I was trading short when it flipped long again and hence suffered the losses you see on accounts. The drawdowns were in accordance with the figures previously agreed and are acceptable.
Then there was almost two weeks on non trading whilst I was ill and tradingbegan properly again last week. Unfortunately the two weeks of non-trades meant I was unable to pull back the months figures in time for month end. I will not increase risk just for the monthly pay packet.
Since trading recommenced accounts have been steadily building and had I used the same leverage we would be back to break even for the month. However as the market was clearly in a state of confusion I took the decision to reduce leverage to safeguard capital.
The Coming Month.
At the moment many currency pairs are ready for a good retrace. Of course this doesn’t mean they will retrace but it does mean that we are at a higher risk than when our ideal conditions are met.
For the first two weeks of the month I expect to be short term trading again or even not trading whilst looking for the longer trades to appearSome trades will develop early but I think the main bulk of the months trades may take a while to form.
If clients have any questions I am available as always via skype, phone or email.
From The Desk Of ...
Soultrader
Friday, September 28, 2007
September Comments
Managed Account Report
The first two weeks of the month were quiet for me with a steady decline into a drawdown of around 14%. markets were consolodating and doing nothing really.
The woes of the Sub Prime mortgage fiasco changed all that in week 3 with the virtual collapse of Northern Rock (NRK). Britains 2nd largest mortgage provider.
same old story as before, they were suffering liquidity problems all because of these clever American companies who thought it would be good to lend money to people who had no chance of paying it back.
Northern rock suffered first because mortgages were just about the only sector they were in - others have insurance business to fall back on. The bubble burst when the Bank Of England blew the whistle and told the world they had extended credit to NRK as the 'lender of last resort' - basically the death knell.
This of course caused widespread panic in the money markets this side of the pond.
Strangely enough I didnt make that much from the NRK effect but it did jolly up the markets enough for us to turn a healthy profit by month end.
The Coming Month.
I'm predicting yet more shocks in the market, in fact I think this sub prime effect will last into the new year - which is great news for us, bad news for the banks and hedge funds.
My methods thrive on volatility and we have that in spades at the moment, bring it on!
Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
The first two weeks of the month were quiet for me with a steady decline into a drawdown of around 14%. markets were consolodating and doing nothing really.
The woes of the Sub Prime mortgage fiasco changed all that in week 3 with the virtual collapse of Northern Rock (NRK). Britains 2nd largest mortgage provider.
same old story as before, they were suffering liquidity problems all because of these clever American companies who thought it would be good to lend money to people who had no chance of paying it back.
Northern rock suffered first because mortgages were just about the only sector they were in - others have insurance business to fall back on. The bubble burst when the Bank Of England blew the whistle and told the world they had extended credit to NRK as the 'lender of last resort' - basically the death knell.
This of course caused widespread panic in the money markets this side of the pond.
Strangely enough I didnt make that much from the NRK effect but it did jolly up the markets enough for us to turn a healthy profit by month end.
The Coming Month.
I'm predicting yet more shocks in the market, in fact I think this sub prime effect will last into the new year - which is great news for us, bad news for the banks and hedge funds.
My methods thrive on volatility and we have that in spades at the moment, bring it on!
September Results:
Increase Percentage: 20.2%
Individual accounts may vary based on client’s comfort level of risk
The monitor account updates every hour and is live for the current month - you can see the last update time in the top right corner Have a look at it herePlease email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested in managed accounts.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
August 2007 Comments
Managed Account Report.
I currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
August was unusually active. One week of this month was an anomaly due to the shocks in the sub prime motgage sector and it’s good to see an interesting August (a month usually devoid of strong trends due to trader holidays)
At a time when many were losing money hand over fist the small trader had an advantage. A hedge fund or bank cannot just dump a position in which they have been building for many months. It’s not easy to drop some billions into the market without it dropping like a lead baloon.
Smaller traders have the advantage in these moves as they can get in and out at will without the disadvantage of having to unwind large positions. Remember, when banks and hedge funds are losing money someone is always on the other side of those trades.
The turmoil in week 2 resulted in a drawdown bigger than expected along with a profit bigger than expected – rather strange to have both inside a week. Please note though that the figures for drawdown are misleading this month as when I was in drawdown on closed trades I had open trades of twice the drawdown level in positive. Therefore my system shutdown level of 45% was not initiated.
The longer term trend following aspect of the programme had great gains followed by a significant drawdown, whilst the shorter term trend aspect had massive gains previously unseen.
All my previous personal records were broken this month:
- Biggest ever single trade – 1287 pips AUDJPY
- biggest day 3531 pips on closed trades,
- biggest week 4480 pips on closed trades 13-17 aug 2007
Clearly I do not expect this kind of performance every month, but once every three years or so this kind of situation presents itself. The last time this kind of action happened was in December of 2004. And I was ready for it then too making my previous records of 485 pips in a day and 1856 in a week. Now smashed.
The Coming Month:
I see September as continuing the volatility and with increased risk. To cope with this my leverage will be reduced to protect assets from large swings into drawdown.
I have also initiated a new limit on exposure. For this month I may have a maximum of three positions on any single currency – so for example three yen trades, three usd trades etc – think about this – what this means is that usdjpy is 1 usd trade AND 1 jpy trade – this will limit my exposure to risk.
as for the fundamentals, well think of it this way - the fed providing liquidity and cheap loans will not in any way change the fact that hedge funds and banks aroiund the world are overexposed to debt from the sub prime sector. it may be just a temporary repreive.
On saying that all this debt exposure could just be rumour - and we know what rumour can do - sell the rumour and buy the fact.
In reality I don't give a toss about news items or alerts. If the market moves I will be moving with it in whatever direction it goes. If i am the wrong way around then i will soon be shaken out of the trade and going the other way. Thats what we trend followers do, we don't predict or make the trend we just follow it.
August Results
Individual accounts may vary based on client’s comfort level of risk
The monitor account updates every hour and is live for the current month - you can see the last update time in the top right corner Have a look at it hereI currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Managed accounts
For those interested in my managed accounts and the performance.
At the end of june I began trading an account as I would the managed accounts so i have a record.
This is a real money account that started off at around $6,000 at the end of June 2007.
The account updates every hour and is live - you can see the last update time in the top right corner. Have a look at it here
I currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
At the end of june I began trading an account as I would the managed accounts so i have a record.
This is a real money account that started off at around $6,000 at the end of June 2007.
The account updates every hour and is live - you can see the last update time in the top right corner. Have a look at it here
I currently have only four places available for managed accounts. Please email me managed@simpleforexsystems.com for full details should you be interested.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Questions:
Following my post on The Grailtrading Blog i've been asked some questions. I'd rather post the answers here if I may because i want to leave that blog as a bit of history now :)
Afraid not JK, all sorted now anyways and all parties happy.
Sgguy: It's been a real pleasure following your blog Soul......here's wishing you the best in your future.
Thanks very much SG Guy, stuff will continue over in this blog
15 Aug 07, 02:31
jay: excellent lessons to have passed on soul - can you divulge any more of the legal stuff now? Cheers JKAfraid not JK, all sorted now anyways and all parties happy.
Sgguy: It's been a real pleasure following your blog Soul......here's wishing you the best in your future.
Thanks very much SG Guy, stuff will continue over in this blog
Now there is a great question, allow me to share my thoughts with you The answer to that is kinda No. the first tests we did had to be conducted on an MT3 platform and even today that gives us the most accurate results. Eventually we managed to get the MT4 backtester working well enough to trust the results, but it's only been that way since around November 2006. even then it had to be a specific broker (Mig) and specific backtest data (alpari data dump). this was because the alpari timeframe matched that of Mig and that Mig is the only broker i would trust to deliver accurate real time data. So many of the others have many missing bars and ticks - just look at a one minute chart on most brokers and see the missing bars - this affects indicators an amazing amount. Mig has the least number of missing bars consistently. Then the programming had to be perfect. im talking about us making sure each line of code was needed and worked right - it must have taken us 3 months just to get the expert working good enough to backtest and at that we had professional programmers on board. eventually yes, the MT4 backtester was reasonably accurate - well, but that i mean within about 5% of reality. of course we had to verify this by eye to confirm before we could do any simulation tests - we eye tested every single trade for four years of data and can confirm that mig ran with alpari 1 min back data is accurate to about 95% - but note, the 5% is quite a difference, and it's always 5% worse in real life, not better :) Suggestion to those looking into backtesting would be to buy the new book The Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods That Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders  It has an excellent part about backtesting and the effect of randomness on a trading system - made me open my eyes i can tell you.The rest of the book is excellent also. |
19 Aug 07, 22:59 dan: soul its great the way you are trying to help people understand what went wrong with the grail are you working on anything new thats looks promising best regardsHi Dan, thanks very much for the comments, just hope it's useful to you. Yes, good things happening right now and very happy. Grail took some time to get over emotionally and it took about 6 months. Recently been working on a system which is really great, getting back into my trend following roots and doing really well. That strategy netted me over 4000 pips last week! That was of course not the norm, was because of the sub prime thing, but it was nice to break personal records of 1 week and 1 day closes. My previous best was in December 2004 when i closed 485 pips in a single day and did 1890 pips in a week. This time is closed over 3300 pips in a single day and almost 4500 in a single week. More than the grail system made over two years in a single week! I just wish that i had been in the position i was in 8 months ago where I was trading 125 lots of client money and £120 per pip of my own - now that would've been some party! The system is robust now and is producing better returns than grail at half the previous leverage and I've recently setup an agreement with a broker to handle managed accounts myself rather than through the company I worked with before. My first client with $70,000 will be depositing in the next 2 weeks so all looking good to go. I'm also trading on Zulutrade.com properley now so you can watch the performance over there - just look for the soultrader account. Thanks everyone for your thoughts, keep the comments coming |
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Update
Hi all,
Thought i'd give you an update on what im doing.
Grail is still trading as a basket and just trickling along, not winning but not losing either, kinda stagnant.
The markets as a whole have constricted into much smaller daily ranges which makes it difficult for an intraday trend trading strategy to make money - that's why grail is struggling still.
My own trading has now taken a suprising turn. I started trading a mean reversion strategy taking 2-10 pips out of the market per trade 3 or 4 times a day.
I had an amazing run of 67 winning trades on the trot - sounds good eh?
Not so, the trouble with mean reversion is that you add to losing trades in the misguided hope that price will revert back to the mean.
A single trade wiped out those 67 wins and more besides. so much for a great strategy eh!
So, i'm back doing what i do best - Trend following. I used to do nothing but trend following on the dow jones and did pretty well and now it's back as my main trading system albeit on a longer term view.
My belief has always been that you cant make serious money in this game unless you let your profitable trades run and run.
Those who used to frequent the moneytec chat room back in 2004 will know that i would hold onto a trade for grim death, trailing the stop unti the trend was truly exhausted. - my motto was 'never take a profit manually, always let the stop take you out'. It served me well being the only person on there to take over 230 pips from a single one minute trade!
So, I'm back onto this but with a twist. Im now trend following using a four hour and a daily chart. I dont look any lower than that and so far i'm starting to get the feeling back that i'm in control.
Now just because i say 'you cant make money taking small profits' doesnt mean it's true. After all i don't know what i don't know and I have known people that make lots of money from small scalp trades - BBMac being one such outstanding trader and just about the only person i know that can make money from scalping.
Personally though I cannot, no matter what i try i cannot make money from small market moves.
So, you may ask why have i gone to longer term trading - the answer is simple. When we were flying high with grail the daily range of cable was usually around 110 - 150 pips per day - an average of around 138.
The last time the ranges were like this was in the back end of 2006 and they are just compressing and compressing. Grail was an intraday strategy which exploited trends but you cant exploit a trend on a daily basis when the market is only moving 70 pips or so and your system is designed to exploit a 130 pip range market.
So, what's to do - easy - extend the time of the trade so that you arent restricted by the daily range. and that's exactly what ive done.
I have trades running today that i opened last wednesday and are still running. They are with trend and are doing well. I have had losers, but they are closed quickly for small losses like 30 or 40 pips and the winners just run and run. Cad is being very good to me at the moment coupled with the dollar and aud - in total im almost 200 pips up on each trade.
Im trading flat money on each trade but can take multiple trades. For example a $10,000 account would allow you to have up to 10 trades at $1 a pip or 5 trades at $2 a pip. I generally have quite large stops to begin with but because the amount traded is small relative to the account size then it is very comfortable.
So, that's what im doing - just following the trend. I don't predict, i dont pick tops or bottoms, i just wait for it moving and hop on board until it stops. I have no idea when it will stop but whilstever its moving there is no reason to get out.
That's my reccomendation to you if you are struggling at the mo. stop fighting the flow and just slip into it. I couldnt believe the amount of money that has been buying into USDCAD this week - whilst all the time it's dropping like a stone.
People who pick bottoms get stinky fingers as an old friend Brad used to say :)
Thought i'd give you an update on what im doing.
Grail is still trading as a basket and just trickling along, not winning but not losing either, kinda stagnant.
The markets as a whole have constricted into much smaller daily ranges which makes it difficult for an intraday trend trading strategy to make money - that's why grail is struggling still.
My own trading has now taken a suprising turn. I started trading a mean reversion strategy taking 2-10 pips out of the market per trade 3 or 4 times a day.
I had an amazing run of 67 winning trades on the trot - sounds good eh?
Not so, the trouble with mean reversion is that you add to losing trades in the misguided hope that price will revert back to the mean.
A single trade wiped out those 67 wins and more besides. so much for a great strategy eh!
So, i'm back doing what i do best - Trend following. I used to do nothing but trend following on the dow jones and did pretty well and now it's back as my main trading system albeit on a longer term view.
My belief has always been that you cant make serious money in this game unless you let your profitable trades run and run.
Those who used to frequent the moneytec chat room back in 2004 will know that i would hold onto a trade for grim death, trailing the stop unti the trend was truly exhausted. - my motto was 'never take a profit manually, always let the stop take you out'. It served me well being the only person on there to take over 230 pips from a single one minute trade!
So, I'm back onto this but with a twist. Im now trend following using a four hour and a daily chart. I dont look any lower than that and so far i'm starting to get the feeling back that i'm in control.
Now just because i say 'you cant make money taking small profits' doesnt mean it's true. After all i don't know what i don't know and I have known people that make lots of money from small scalp trades - BBMac being one such outstanding trader and just about the only person i know that can make money from scalping.
Personally though I cannot, no matter what i try i cannot make money from small market moves.
So, you may ask why have i gone to longer term trading - the answer is simple. When we were flying high with grail the daily range of cable was usually around 110 - 150 pips per day - an average of around 138.
The last time the ranges were like this was in the back end of 2006 and they are just compressing and compressing. Grail was an intraday strategy which exploited trends but you cant exploit a trend on a daily basis when the market is only moving 70 pips or so and your system is designed to exploit a 130 pip range market.
So, what's to do - easy - extend the time of the trade so that you arent restricted by the daily range. and that's exactly what ive done.
I have trades running today that i opened last wednesday and are still running. They are with trend and are doing well. I have had losers, but they are closed quickly for small losses like 30 or 40 pips and the winners just run and run. Cad is being very good to me at the moment coupled with the dollar and aud - in total im almost 200 pips up on each trade.
Im trading flat money on each trade but can take multiple trades. For example a $10,000 account would allow you to have up to 10 trades at $1 a pip or 5 trades at $2 a pip. I generally have quite large stops to begin with but because the amount traded is small relative to the account size then it is very comfortable.
So, that's what im doing - just following the trend. I don't predict, i dont pick tops or bottoms, i just wait for it moving and hop on board until it stops. I have no idea when it will stop but whilstever its moving there is no reason to get out.
That's my reccomendation to you if you are struggling at the mo. stop fighting the flow and just slip into it. I couldnt believe the amount of money that has been buying into USDCAD this week - whilst all the time it's dropping like a stone.
People who pick bottoms get stinky fingers as an old friend Brad used to say :)
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