Saturday, October 01, 2005

Month End

Stats for the Month of September are below.

Before i analyse those and cover last weeks predictions just to let you know that the grailtrading blog has now been updated here

Ok, so last weeks predictions - how did they do?

  • a possible retrace to 1.7910 - tuesday - way off the mark - market did retrace but only to 1.7800

  • new lows should follow any lift - correct

  • Possible lows of the week 1.7350 - way off the mark 1.7565

  • possible highs 1.8120. - again way off the mark
so only strike one this last week.

Before i cover next weeks prediction lets have a look at the hilda signals log below. September was a great month and the addition of the new trade setup has indeed increased the win / loss ratio of hilda. Important thing to note is that this is only an addition and those of you trading hilda should not disregard the basics of the core system.

1245 pips for the month and an 89.3% winning ratio on what i call 'low hanging fruit' trades.

Hopefully you can see the sheet below by clicking on it - afraid i had to zoom out somewhat to get them all on one screen

Ok, onto the week ahead then.

The daily chart suggests to me there well may be more downside to the start of the week, although the chart is fighting one of the indicators in use. The weekly is showing signs of flagging but still has the potential to more downside.

We have a new monthly bar on the monthly chart which does show a setup for long. However price is in the 'dead zone' as i call it and so could in effect go either way. However if i had to make a prediction and throw my hat in the ring i would say that October will finish the month higher and a close to the month above 1.82 would signal that the current downtrend is over and the monthly uptrend will resume.

So, the week ahead

This week will begin with yet more downside. Many traders are now bottom picking the market but that does not mean they are right. The setup on the 4 hour chart should play out sometime on monday for shorts although the initial hours of the first day may see upside before the drop

Monday - rise to 1.7680 before fall - if this doesnt happen and we see new highs then 1.78 will be the magic turning point on tuesday / wednesday - by magic turning point i mean a break of 1.78 will see a trend change in the making and if it bounces down from 1.78 then we are in for new lows and a continuation of the downtrend for the week.

there is an upmove on the cards and this week may be a hard week for intraday trading as we are at a decision point wether to initiate the move this week or next week.

Of course this analysis is all bollocks and no-one can truly predict the market - so please dont take any of this as anything more than a bit of fun - trade what you see as it unfolds :)

Hope you have a great week ahead


okl said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Soultrader said...

sorry, can i have that in english please?

Shugglefish said...

It says that "this Post has been removed by the creator". Presumably, the user is a German user of the site, wrote a comment, and then deleted it.