Tuesday, January 24, 2006

cable analysis

Hi, thought i would give you some of my insights to the market as we stand today.

cable only of course as usual :)

Lets start with the big picture and work our way down

Firstly the monthly chart. There is no doubt in my mind that the monthly view is on its way up before a fall to come later in the year. Initial resistance points to 1.8086 where we may see a difficult day once reached . I think that she will however break this area and go to highs of approx 1.85 / 86 ish before a fall to new lows (yes below 1.70)

The weekly chart supports this initial up move but first we may see some downside starting next week or the week after. This downside should be curtailed at the 1.76 area give or take 100 pips before moving up again to play with that monthly area of 1.85 / 86

Looking at the daily tells me that the 200sma has been broken but as yet remains untested - this may indicate the stopping area of the weekly chart once it begins it's decline. we dont yet know where that area will be until the fall comes.

The 4 hour chart does seem to be over extended, however on saying that trendlines have been broken and have also been tested once. she is getting ready to resume the upmove but the next few bars (4 or 5) may show a confused market as the 4 hour consolidates. If i had to make a prediction it would be that she will not fall below 1.78 for a while now.

the one hour chart as i speak shows the possibility of a retest of the 1.78 level in the cards but as stated before i dont think it will be broken - worth a punt long if she tickles there.

Of course this could all be bollocks and as usual please trade what you see.

all the best :)

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