Losing count now LOL
ahh, just one trade away in the big scheme of things
usdchf closed on stop for -149 and -260
Results so far - February 2009 -1136 pips on closed trades
Results so far - 2009 +411 pips on closed trades.
what a bastard lol - no, really, this is where the fact that i use 1:1 leverage and choose low risks come in - when you look at it it's only really two trades from recovery - this is the life of a trader - sometimes you win win win, other times you lose lose lose lose - the key is making sure that overall each single trade is small in risk but that when you do win it covers the losing pot and then some.
Im sure some watching this are sniggering - ohh look at soul screwing up - and that's fine, feel free to snigger - ive seen lots of sniggerers - funny how they change often though and after about a year they dont seem to be around sniggering anymore.
anyway, I know some out there understand the big picture and will be watching with mere interest.
I'd like to go short cable right now but the risk is too high at 500 pips. if we see 1.44 then i might join the party but time will tell.
A lower risk however is eurgbp with about 400 for a profit approachiong 1000 pips, therefore:
NEW TRADE LONG EURGBP 0.8951 SL 0.8570
GBPCHF looks interesting for a short also but the risk is again too high. Nursing a loss of more than 10% on the month is making me over cautious, roll on march when i reset the clock.
Stay lucky!
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
ahh well, getting a battering this month so far, suppose it should be expected.
think i might stay out for a while to let it settle.
state of play:
CLOSED ON STOP EURGBP -60
CLOSED MANUALLY EURCAD -236
Results so far - February 2009 -727 pips on closed trades
Results so far - 2009 +820 pips on closed trades.
think i might stay out for a while to let it settle.
state of play:
CLOSED ON STOP EURGBP -60
CLOSED MANUALLY EURCAD -236
Results so far - February 2009 -727 pips on closed trades
Results so far - 2009 +820 pips on closed trades.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Question
jguy3348: I am here..Been cruising and found old you on moneytech..you wrote some really good stuff there. I got alot of questions. Earlier on this blog you talked about probilities. I don't want to recap all you wrote. Do you still use proabilitiy and backtesting for system developement. Can you give an example of what you might look at use to measure probability?? eg, is consolidation a probality factor? Doo you have more thatn one probability factor? You also talked alot about backtesting!!!! Do you do this by hand or do you use software....I am not sure if I have been clear or not , please excuse me if I am confusing you with my question..
Hi Jguy if i wrote really good stuff on moneytec does that mean i write total bollocks on here? LOL
anyway, lets talk about backtesting and systems.
Im only going to say this once and it might upset a lot of people. My experience has shown that backtesting is a total waste of time ... almost. It's also learned me that systems don't work long enough in 'retail land' for anyone to make a lot of money or a reliable income.
Take a look at the grail blog and you will see that we spent a massive amout of time working on backtesting, system development etc - sure, i did over 1000% inside 13 months so you could say that was a success. I made some good money out of grail but then the system failed.
I was lucky for a whole year - if i'd have discovered grail two years earlier I would now be in the leagues of the super rich because in total grail worked day in day out for four years.
However, it wouldnt have been possible to identify the grail pattern until it was at least two years old so the maximum we could have milked it for was about two and a half years.
The team and I sat up night after night crunching numbers spending literally thousands of hours between us backtesting various stuff. it was a waste oif time.
The initial backtest which gave us a ball park system was good enough.
at the end on 2006 came the black swan, as happens in any mechanical system - eventually they always come to roost.
Systems are ok for a learning curve, but the biggest lesson anyone could take away from here is to learn to trade risk. One day if you last long enough you will understand what i mean - until you get there you'll think its about money management, or the entry, or the stop or this indicator / that indicator. It isn't it's all about risk.
next question will be something like "do you have a system soul" and my answer is yes and no - I have a chart setup and seven years of looking at them so i guess thats my system. Reading the charts is an art form, not a set of childish rules, go long when x=y, short when y=x, stake X% of pot etc - all that is BOLLOCKS.
Forget systems - either building them or buying them, forget backtesting completely, learn to trade risk and you can make money all your life.
Wanna know more? - click me
Hi Jguy if i wrote really good stuff on moneytec does that mean i write total bollocks on here? LOL
anyway, lets talk about backtesting and systems.
Im only going to say this once and it might upset a lot of people. My experience has shown that backtesting is a total waste of time ... almost. It's also learned me that systems don't work long enough in 'retail land' for anyone to make a lot of money or a reliable income.
Take a look at the grail blog and you will see that we spent a massive amout of time working on backtesting, system development etc - sure, i did over 1000% inside 13 months so you could say that was a success. I made some good money out of grail but then the system failed.
I was lucky for a whole year - if i'd have discovered grail two years earlier I would now be in the leagues of the super rich because in total grail worked day in day out for four years.
However, it wouldnt have been possible to identify the grail pattern until it was at least two years old so the maximum we could have milked it for was about two and a half years.
The team and I sat up night after night crunching numbers spending literally thousands of hours between us backtesting various stuff. it was a waste oif time.
The initial backtest which gave us a ball park system was good enough.
at the end on 2006 came the black swan, as happens in any mechanical system - eventually they always come to roost.
Systems are ok for a learning curve, but the biggest lesson anyone could take away from here is to learn to trade risk. One day if you last long enough you will understand what i mean - until you get there you'll think its about money management, or the entry, or the stop or this indicator / that indicator. It isn't it's all about risk.
next question will be something like "do you have a system soul" and my answer is yes and no - I have a chart setup and seven years of looking at them so i guess thats my system. Reading the charts is an art form, not a set of childish rules, go long when x=y, short when y=x, stake X% of pot etc - all that is BOLLOCKS.
Forget systems - either building them or buying them, forget backtesting completely, learn to trade risk and you can make money all your life.
Wanna know more? - click me
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
NEW TRADE LONG EURCAD 1.6140 IF SEEN SL 400 PIPS
CHANGE ORDER EURGBP ENTRY LONG NOW 0.8930 IF SEEN
things might start moving soon, can you feel it getting ready?
then again it might be crap and just go back to range - but it certainly had a sniff today didnt it - time to see if it wants a good go tomorrow.
Im also interested in GBPUSD short but not from here - going to watch what happens overnight and might take a punt or place an order tomorrow.
Catch you in the morning on that one
Wanna know more? - click me
CHANGE ORDER EURGBP ENTRY LONG NOW 0.8930 IF SEEN
things might start moving soon, can you feel it getting ready?
then again it might be crap and just go back to range - but it certainly had a sniff today didnt it - time to see if it wants a good go tomorrow.
Im also interested in GBPUSD short but not from here - going to watch what happens overnight and might take a punt or place an order tomorrow.
Catch you in the morning on that one
Wanna know more? - click me
Monday, February 09, 2009
Thursday, February 05, 2009
still dont really like anything tho usdcad is bugging me a little - i think it's going long but need to see something first.
NEW TRADE LONG EURGBP @ 0.9139 IF SEEN SL 300 PIPS
Ive cancelled the usdchf short order now and replaced it with a medium risk punt
NEW TRADE USDCHF LONG 1.1731 SL 1.1370
Sod it, taking a low risk cad:
NEW TRADE USDCAD LONG 1.2327 SL 1.2170
That's it Stay Lucky!
NEW TRADE LONG EURGBP @ 0.9139 IF SEEN SL 300 PIPS
Ive cancelled the usdchf short order now and replaced it with a medium risk punt
NEW TRADE USDCHF LONG 1.1731 SL 1.1370
Sod it, taking a low risk cad:
NEW TRADE USDCAD LONG 1.2327 SL 1.2170
That's it Stay Lucky!
lovely weather we are having here!
anyway
TRADE CLOSED ON STOP EURGBP +100
Results so far - February 2009 +75 pips on closed trades
Results so far - 2009 +1547 pips on closed trades.
Been looking around at the charts and dont see anything at all that interests me, the market is stagnant so nowt to do. time to make a snowman i think.
stay lucky
anyway
TRADE CLOSED ON STOP EURGBP +100
Results so far - February 2009 +75 pips on closed trades
Results so far - 2009 +1547 pips on closed trades.
Been looking around at the charts and dont see anything at all that interests me, the market is stagnant so nowt to do. time to make a snowman i think.
stay lucky
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
EURCAD CLOSED ON STOP FOR +130
EURAUD CLOSED ON STOP FOR -155
Results so far - February 2009 -25 pips on closed trades
Results so far - 2009 +1447 pips on closed trades.
Funny thing here is that financially I lost nothing - because EURAUD is $63 a pip per contract and EURCAD is $80 I actually made money on a pip loss.
Anyway, nothing else at the mo, the market is stagnant so guess what - no trading! plenty of time left in the month so i'm going to have some fun :)
EURAUD CLOSED ON STOP FOR -155
Results so far - February 2009 -25 pips on closed trades
Results so far - 2009 +1447 pips on closed trades.
Funny thing here is that financially I lost nothing - because EURAUD is $63 a pip per contract and EURCAD is $80 I actually made money on a pip loss.
Anyway, nothing else at the mo, the market is stagnant so guess what - no trading! plenty of time left in the month so i'm going to have some fun :)
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Monday, February 02, 2009
Sunday, February 01, 2009
New Month - Feburary 2009
Doesnt time fly! already a 8.3% of the year gone.
What have you done with that time - all 744 hours of it?
Did you spend it stuck to a screen? or did you have a life?
The way I trade I have a life - I make no apologies for that, it's why i trade. Why do you trade? Money isnt everything you know - make sure you dont miss out on the things that money cannot buy.
Anyway, New month then so lets wrap up January
January Close + 1472 pips for 13 trades.
7 winners and 6 losers - bit like a coin toss that eh steve? - what does it tell you?
each trade win or lose was worth 113 pips
average losing trade was -102 pips.
average winner was +297 pips
Yes, the entry to your trade is important, yes the exit matters, yes the size of the stake is important - but trading is all about the risk and return. If your winners are worth more than your losers and you are around 50% or better then you make money. Simple.
Taking a low risk bouncer tonight for a punt
NEW TRADE LONG EURGBP 0.8825 SL 0.8770
Nothing else attractive so that's that.
Wanna know more? - click me
What have you done with that time - all 744 hours of it?
Did you spend it stuck to a screen? or did you have a life?
The way I trade I have a life - I make no apologies for that, it's why i trade. Why do you trade? Money isnt everything you know - make sure you dont miss out on the things that money cannot buy.
Anyway, New month then so lets wrap up January
January Close + 1472 pips for 13 trades.
7 winners and 6 losers - bit like a coin toss that eh steve? - what does it tell you?
each trade win or lose was worth 113 pips
average losing trade was -102 pips.
average winner was +297 pips
Yes, the entry to your trade is important, yes the exit matters, yes the size of the stake is important - but trading is all about the risk and return. If your winners are worth more than your losers and you are around 50% or better then you make money. Simple.
Taking a low risk bouncer tonight for a punt
NEW TRADE LONG EURGBP 0.8825 SL 0.8770
Nothing else attractive so that's that.
Wanna know more? - click me
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)