valius:
soul, how do you manage with winning streaks. i mean, when there comes 20 winning trades in a row, how do you fight with the feeling that finally you found the holy grail? Thank You.
Hi Vallius, thanks for popping in.
Firstly the answer to your question lies in your testing.
Let me explain.
I dont know if you've ever seen the 'Firebird' strategy. Its an expert advisor for metatrader which takes small profits with hugh stops - in fact in some cases with no stops. Last time I checked this thing took 6 pips on winning trades and lost 300 pips on losing trades.
For that to make money you have to have something like a 99% win/loss ratio to make money - ie in 100 trades you make 99 X 6 pips but one loser X300 pips = 294 pips profit per 100 trades - just one trade less winning equals disaster - 98 X6 pips = 588 pips but 2 losers = 600 pips.
People are often drawn by these strategies because they hardly ever lose - however the real drawdown is in the open positions and people who trade these often just cannot face taking a loss. You can run with this whilstever you have money in your account but it's not a sustainable strategy in my opinion, however i could be wrong and often am.
So, back to your question.
If you come across something that has 20 wins on the trot then keep testing it till you have a good sample size - I tend to work on a sample size of around 600 to 1000 trades for 'one a day' trades - 400 for swing trades but nothing lower than that. if the figures look good after that then I would have initial confidence in the system. Just dont get excited by 20 trades :)
Hope this helps
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
continued ...
Ok, the last bit then.
Firstly let me say that some people (albeit a small number) can trade like that with s&r pivots etc and consistently make money, lots of it in fact.
But as it is gut feeling based and given that you can only develop gut feelings with experience - this method takes years and years to be good at. I can do it and it took me about 2 solid years of 12 hour days watching charts to get good enough. even when you are good enough your results are affected by outside influences like your health, mood, women etc.
There aren't many people who can do that and that's why they make the big bucks.
It's not how I personally choose to secure my future earnings. You have to understand something fundamental about me personally.
The way that i discovered trading in the first place was by asking myself a single question. and I still ask the same question every day.
"How can I make the most amount of money ... with the least effort"
To me trading s&r, Pivots, MA's etc etc is hard work and draining. what's more it's very hit and miss. This is why I do not choose to trade in this manner.
As for your question - is it really as simple as just testing ma's and money management - is that the holy grail?
My answer is yes it is. finding one that works is the hard bit, and believe me there is no moving average cross that works on any pair in any combination - how do i know that? - because i've tested them ...all.
But that does not mean you shouldn't test them - trading methods are like the notes in a song - despite the fact that every note has been used billions of times - every day someone comes up with a new song from the same seven notes. The same is true with methods of trading and you may just have the next winning system. But unless you have a way of measuring it then you won't know if you have a winning system or a bag of crap.
What I can tell you though is that systems that make little money are not super rare - there are many ways of making a little money in this game - however I can tell you that winning systems that consistently make money time after time after time with enough profit and consistency on which to place some serious money - are as rare as hens teeth.
My trading at the moment takes roughly 30 minutes a day - but i spend the other 10 hours doing nothing but research and testing. Testing a single system properly takes about 2 man months
Ive worked that way now day in day out for around 2 years , and it's not just me, there are several others in my team- 10 hours a day research and development for 2 years - lot of hours i think you will agree. How many systems do you think I've developed in that time that deserve real money placing on them - and I'm not talking a few thousand here ....
Well I'll tell you - two systems, that's all. and just one of them is plenty enough to make me millions and millions. see, - rare as hens teeth.
My team have tested hundreds of systems - but there are hundreds more that we have not even heard of yet. that's why we keep on testing and testing, day after day. When the systems we have have made us the money we want then we will probably stop but for now ... back to the grindstone I'm afraid :)
My advice to you for your next step? - learn to use Excel :)
Firstly let me say that some people (albeit a small number) can trade like that with s&r pivots etc and consistently make money, lots of it in fact.
But as it is gut feeling based and given that you can only develop gut feelings with experience - this method takes years and years to be good at. I can do it and it took me about 2 solid years of 12 hour days watching charts to get good enough. even when you are good enough your results are affected by outside influences like your health, mood, women etc.
There aren't many people who can do that and that's why they make the big bucks.
It's not how I personally choose to secure my future earnings. You have to understand something fundamental about me personally.
The way that i discovered trading in the first place was by asking myself a single question. and I still ask the same question every day.
"How can I make the most amount of money ... with the least effort"
To me trading s&r, Pivots, MA's etc etc is hard work and draining. what's more it's very hit and miss. This is why I do not choose to trade in this manner.
As for your question - is it really as simple as just testing ma's and money management - is that the holy grail?
My answer is yes it is. finding one that works is the hard bit, and believe me there is no moving average cross that works on any pair in any combination - how do i know that? - because i've tested them ...all.
But that does not mean you shouldn't test them - trading methods are like the notes in a song - despite the fact that every note has been used billions of times - every day someone comes up with a new song from the same seven notes. The same is true with methods of trading and you may just have the next winning system. But unless you have a way of measuring it then you won't know if you have a winning system or a bag of crap.
What I can tell you though is that systems that make little money are not super rare - there are many ways of making a little money in this game - however I can tell you that winning systems that consistently make money time after time after time with enough profit and consistency on which to place some serious money - are as rare as hens teeth.
My trading at the moment takes roughly 30 minutes a day - but i spend the other 10 hours doing nothing but research and testing. Testing a single system properly takes about 2 man months
Ive worked that way now day in day out for around 2 years , and it's not just me, there are several others in my team- 10 hours a day research and development for 2 years - lot of hours i think you will agree. How many systems do you think I've developed in that time that deserve real money placing on them - and I'm not talking a few thousand here ....
Well I'll tell you - two systems, that's all. and just one of them is plenty enough to make me millions and millions. see, - rare as hens teeth.
My team have tested hundreds of systems - but there are hundreds more that we have not even heard of yet. that's why we keep on testing and testing, day after day. When the systems we have have made us the money we want then we will probably stop but for now ... back to the grindstone I'm afraid :)
My advice to you for your next step? - learn to use Excel :)
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Peter ...
Ok, nice first question then from Peter below - if you would like to ask anything then please use the comments link at the bottom of this post.
Hi Soul,
Ive had a real struggle with accepting that the forex is a neutral market and that anything can happen, in fact, so much so that i flip a coin every time before entering a trade to remind me i have as much control in predicting heads or tails as i do in getting the market to do what i want or predict. As tedious as that sounds it helps me to not take the loss personally and to keep my psychology in check.
Am interested in knowing what it took for you in your trading walk to switch your psychology to that of a winning mindset.
And yes i am a 1 year old trader trading $1 lots however sod it, I've learnt enough to realise that the key to being successful is by thinking probabilities and not searching for holy grails of signals and indicators.
Peter
Hi Peter, and thanks for the question, it's a very good one
Firstly if you are a year in and still at $1 a pip then well done, you are demonstrating that you have two of the most important things needed in a trader - Firstly determination in the fact that you've managed a year, and secondly discipline in the fact that you are still playing with minimum lot size.
Many traders would have a) given up by now and b) if they had not given up then they would have blown the account by trading higher and higher. You are probably already in a 20% minority so pat yourself on the back.
The lesson to be learned there is that if you cannot make money at $1 a pip that you will not make money at $10 or $100 a pip.
The revelation that you cannot control or predict the market is the most important one you will ever learn. and you can only learn it from the experience. No matter how many times you read it in books or articles makes no difference at all - to actually make it part of your belief system you have to prove it to yourself. It seems you are beginning to get there.
When you know for a fact that you cannot predict the market all sorts of wonderful connections begin to form in your head. How can you possibly beat yourself us for 'getting it wrong' if you had no control in the first place?
so, your question was how did i move into a winning mindset - the answer to this was in your next sentence - knowing the probabilities.
A winning trader can tell you exactly what the percentage of wins they have is. they can tell you exactly how many consecutive losers they expect, exactly how many pips per trade on average they expect and exactly what their average month has been for the past year.
Think about this - if you knew that you won say 60% of the time, that your winners were bigger than the losers combined - that even if you had a bad run that the method over time would bring you out a winner - how would your mindset be?
The important thing here are the words 'if you knew' - Most traders don't know. They don't do exhaustive testing and monitoring to find out these things. They have a feeling that they do OK and that their method works - but they don't actually know it for a fact because mostly they can't be bothered to do all the testing and logging stuff.
When things are going well it's fine not to have the tests that prove beyond doubt that you win - because you are winning anyway. But when a bad run comes along their belief is shattered and they start changing this and that, convinced now that their method does not work. Maybe it doesn't - but then maybe it does - but because they did not put in the testing they will never know.
These magic words 'winning mindset' bring up all sorts of pictures of the successful businessman in his suit, striding along without a care in the world. Traders aspire to be like that yet do not want to put in the work.
Having a winning mindset is akin to putting you feet out of the car after a journey - you know for a fact that there will be ground under your feet - you don't know if the ground will be muddy, quicksand or good solid ground - but you do know that if it is muddy and slippy that if you continue to move around you will get to solid ground. You know this for a fact because you learned as a child.
Of course there is always the chance that you will step out into a gaping chasm - but the probabilities are stacked way in your favor that ground will be there. even so, to make sure you aren't going into a chasm you always take a glance- and a check. winning traders do the same thing, constantly checking their perception is right.
When you take trades day after day unless you test those trades, log them, analyse them and explore them then you don't know that there is ground beneath your feet and you won't know if the ground is moving.
In the trading world you are a child and you have lessons to learn. but just like a child learning not all your lessons can be simple and some require work on paper.
A winning mindset comes from actually knowing that your method works and that the probabilities are in your favor. You have proved it by doing lots and lots of work.
A winning mindset comes from knowing that you can repeat your trades over and over again in a systematic way. This is why I've always tried to get away from discretionary trading - how can you repeat a gut feeling?
This is the real work of the trader. Being a trader is not about pressing buttons at the right time and watching charts - the real work of a trader is done way before those trades are placed. The real work of a trader is being hung over a spreadsheet for months on end and checking checking checking against a one minute chart. A trader with a winning mindset has done all this before trading and just has to go through the motions.
Once the work is done THEN comes the payback. The trading is easy - just button clicks without any emotions - repeatability again and again - then comes the rewards.
Forget learning to trade - trading is merely the process of clicking buttons.
Learn to test, log and analyse instead and the winning mindset you desire will automatically come.
Hope this helps
Hi Soul,
Ive had a real struggle with accepting that the forex is a neutral market and that anything can happen, in fact, so much so that i flip a coin every time before entering a trade to remind me i have as much control in predicting heads or tails as i do in getting the market to do what i want or predict. As tedious as that sounds it helps me to not take the loss personally and to keep my psychology in check.
Am interested in knowing what it took for you in your trading walk to switch your psychology to that of a winning mindset.
And yes i am a 1 year old trader trading $1 lots however sod it, I've learnt enough to realise that the key to being successful is by thinking probabilities and not searching for holy grails of signals and indicators.
Peter
Hi Peter, and thanks for the question, it's a very good one
Firstly if you are a year in and still at $1 a pip then well done, you are demonstrating that you have two of the most important things needed in a trader - Firstly determination in the fact that you've managed a year, and secondly discipline in the fact that you are still playing with minimum lot size.
Many traders would have a) given up by now and b) if they had not given up then they would have blown the account by trading higher and higher. You are probably already in a 20% minority so pat yourself on the back.
The lesson to be learned there is that if you cannot make money at $1 a pip that you will not make money at $10 or $100 a pip.
The revelation that you cannot control or predict the market is the most important one you will ever learn. and you can only learn it from the experience. No matter how many times you read it in books or articles makes no difference at all - to actually make it part of your belief system you have to prove it to yourself. It seems you are beginning to get there.
When you know for a fact that you cannot predict the market all sorts of wonderful connections begin to form in your head. How can you possibly beat yourself us for 'getting it wrong' if you had no control in the first place?
so, your question was how did i move into a winning mindset - the answer to this was in your next sentence - knowing the probabilities.
A winning trader can tell you exactly what the percentage of wins they have is. they can tell you exactly how many consecutive losers they expect, exactly how many pips per trade on average they expect and exactly what their average month has been for the past year.
Think about this - if you knew that you won say 60% of the time, that your winners were bigger than the losers combined - that even if you had a bad run that the method over time would bring you out a winner - how would your mindset be?
The important thing here are the words 'if you knew' - Most traders don't know. They don't do exhaustive testing and monitoring to find out these things. They have a feeling that they do OK and that their method works - but they don't actually know it for a fact because mostly they can't be bothered to do all the testing and logging stuff.
When things are going well it's fine not to have the tests that prove beyond doubt that you win - because you are winning anyway. But when a bad run comes along their belief is shattered and they start changing this and that, convinced now that their method does not work. Maybe it doesn't - but then maybe it does - but because they did not put in the testing they will never know.
These magic words 'winning mindset' bring up all sorts of pictures of the successful businessman in his suit, striding along without a care in the world. Traders aspire to be like that yet do not want to put in the work.
Having a winning mindset is akin to putting you feet out of the car after a journey - you know for a fact that there will be ground under your feet - you don't know if the ground will be muddy, quicksand or good solid ground - but you do know that if it is muddy and slippy that if you continue to move around you will get to solid ground. You know this for a fact because you learned as a child.
Of course there is always the chance that you will step out into a gaping chasm - but the probabilities are stacked way in your favor that ground will be there. even so, to make sure you aren't going into a chasm you always take a glance- and a check. winning traders do the same thing, constantly checking their perception is right.
When you take trades day after day unless you test those trades, log them, analyse them and explore them then you don't know that there is ground beneath your feet and you won't know if the ground is moving.
In the trading world you are a child and you have lessons to learn. but just like a child learning not all your lessons can be simple and some require work on paper.
A winning mindset comes from actually knowing that your method works and that the probabilities are in your favor. You have proved it by doing lots and lots of work.
A winning mindset comes from knowing that you can repeat your trades over and over again in a systematic way. This is why I've always tried to get away from discretionary trading - how can you repeat a gut feeling?
This is the real work of the trader. Being a trader is not about pressing buttons at the right time and watching charts - the real work of a trader is done way before those trades are placed. The real work of a trader is being hung over a spreadsheet for months on end and checking checking checking against a one minute chart. A trader with a winning mindset has done all this before trading and just has to go through the motions.
Once the work is done THEN comes the payback. The trading is easy - just button clicks without any emotions - repeatability again and again - then comes the rewards.
Forget learning to trade - trading is merely the process of clicking buttons.
Learn to test, log and analyse instead and the winning mindset you desire will automatically come.
Hope this helps
Sunday, March 04, 2007
New Blog Purpose
Hiya.
This blog is now changing it's tack. It's basically a place where you can ask your questions to me as an experienced trader or just share your views on market shit etc.
I have decided to totally abandon the forums around the Internet and now agree with Dirk De Troit - they are social clubs for losers. well, we cannot all be winners in this game can we.
every time i go into chat rooms or forums it seems like I'm regressing into a former life and going into the dungeon of hopelessness.
it also seems that those who cannot trade to save their life want like crazy to give me advice, like they have the pearls of wisdom that i lack.
I'm always open for some serious discussion, but come on, a one year trader telling me that i should be using trend lines ???? There he is with his poxy $1 a pip trade and I'm trading over $1000 a pip and he's giving me advice??? what a crazy world.
so anyway, Moneytec, Strategybuilder, Elite Trader, forex factory etc - I've left em all and won't be going back so this is the only place you will find me from now on.
Its an open discussion for Q&A so feel free to comment or use the chat bit on the right - please though don't start giving me advice - what i don't know now i'll have to learn by mistakes and not by some newbie with an ego bigger than mine was :)
bring it on.
This blog is now changing it's tack. It's basically a place where you can ask your questions to me as an experienced trader or just share your views on market shit etc.
I have decided to totally abandon the forums around the Internet and now agree with Dirk De Troit - they are social clubs for losers. well, we cannot all be winners in this game can we.
every time i go into chat rooms or forums it seems like I'm regressing into a former life and going into the dungeon of hopelessness.
it also seems that those who cannot trade to save their life want like crazy to give me advice, like they have the pearls of wisdom that i lack.
I'm always open for some serious discussion, but come on, a one year trader telling me that i should be using trend lines ???? There he is with his poxy $1 a pip trade and I'm trading over $1000 a pip and he's giving me advice??? what a crazy world.
so anyway, Moneytec, Strategybuilder, Elite Trader, forex factory etc - I've left em all and won't be going back so this is the only place you will find me from now on.
Its an open discussion for Q&A so feel free to comment or use the chat bit on the right - please though don't start giving me advice - what i don't know now i'll have to learn by mistakes and not by some newbie with an ego bigger than mine was :)
bring it on.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
ok, did the analasys and so far it's like this.
aud -19, eur -87, cad -72, chf +441
so 263 pips so far - remember this system is designed not to make lots of money, but to be a nice smooth equity curve - there is a larger winning percentage on all pairs and it's hoped that when some are losing some are winning - thats exactly whats happening so far - actually better than i expected.
usd jpy has now been added to the mix making five pairs.
I'm afraid i cannot post the trades anymore as they just do not appear in the test blog - shame that but i will keep you posted.
aud -19, eur -87, cad -72, chf +441
so 263 pips so far - remember this system is designed not to make lots of money, but to be a nice smooth equity curve - there is a larger winning percentage on all pairs and it's hoped that when some are losing some are winning - thats exactly whats happening so far - actually better than i expected.
usd jpy has now been added to the mix making five pairs.
I'm afraid i cannot post the trades anymore as they just do not appear in the test blog - shame that but i will keep you posted.
Pointless
Sorry all, but this is pointless.
Half the emails are not getting through at all to the blog - there are trades in that it posted but never appeared and there are trailing stops in that have not appeared on the blog.
so it's just pointless continuing with the trident test log.
as it stands it's about break even, it had a skew of losers last week and some winners since - just about in profit i think but ive not done the analasys yet.
Half the emails are not getting through at all to the blog - there are trades in that it posted but never appeared and there are trailing stops in that have not appeared on the blog.
so it's just pointless continuing with the trident test log.
as it stands it's about break even, it had a skew of losers last week and some winners since - just about in profit i think but ive not done the analasys yet.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
The new blog for the signals can be found at http://tridentforex.blogspot.com/
Hi all, thanks for having a look at this.
for some reason not all mails are making it through - they get sent but i think blogger does something to identify multiple emails looking the same - the onoly difference in mine is the prices so maybe it classes em as spam.
however, im now trying to put the pair traded in the subject line so lets try that.
results so far are like this
12 trades
10 winners
2 losers
222 pips
please try to keep track of trades yourself if you are interested cos i wont be doing this often.
I fully expect these results to worsen as the strategy is winning too often - ave win / loss in testing was around 55% and not what's been shown so far
Hi all, thanks for having a look at this.
for some reason not all mails are making it through - they get sent but i think blogger does something to identify multiple emails looking the same - the onoly difference in mine is the prices so maybe it classes em as spam.
however, im now trying to put the pair traded in the subject line so lets try that.
results so far are like this
12 trades
10 winners
2 losers
222 pips
please try to keep track of trades yourself if you are interested cos i wont be doing this often.
I fully expect these results to worsen as the strategy is winning too often - ave win / loss in testing was around 55% and not what's been shown so far
Monday, February 05, 2007
Trading expert experiment 2 - Trident
Hi all.
Time for another automatic trading experiment then.
Ive been working on a new autotrading system which looks like it has real promise.
The tests suggest an up to 75% win / loss ratio complete with bigger winners than losers on average so looking good.
The system called Trident is to be traded on a live account and you can follow it's progress.
At the moment this is the information I am happy to give you :
At the moment I have 2 pairs running on the system however more will be added as we progress to a probable 5 - 10 pairs.
The autotrader will post trades in real time to a new blog. this is done via email and sometimes for some reason they don't appear in the right order on the blog - I can't do anything about that and i'm buggared as to why it happens??? - any idea's anyone?
The autotrader WILL tell you when all the following actions occur:
The autotrader will NOT tell you when the following actions occur:
there, thats about it - if you have questions please use the chat box on the right.
The new blog for the signals can be found at http://tridentforex.blogspot.com/
Time for another automatic trading experiment then.
Ive been working on a new autotrading system which looks like it has real promise.
The tests suggest an up to 75% win / loss ratio complete with bigger winners than losers on average so looking good.
The system called Trident is to be traded on a live account and you can follow it's progress.
At the moment this is the information I am happy to give you :
- The system is traded on the 30 minute chart.
- Some trades can last days, some only minutes.
- The system is exited via four ways, a stop, trailing stop, take profit or system closing signal.
- Each pair has different settings, however this system does not use indicators and is mathematically based.
At the moment I have 2 pairs running on the system however more will be added as we progress to a probable 5 - 10 pairs.
The autotrader will post trades in real time to a new blog. this is done via email and sometimes for some reason they don't appear in the right order on the blog - I can't do anything about that and i'm buggared as to why it happens??? - any idea's anyone?
The autotrader WILL tell you when all the following actions occur:
- trade enters long or short
- The symbol traded
- The entry point
- The stop loss
- The take profit
- when the trailing stop kicks in a single post will say what the trailing stop distance is.
- The trade closes on a close signal from the autotrader
The autotrader will NOT tell you when the following actions occur:
- The trade closes on the take profit
- The trade is stopped out
- The trade closes on the trailing stop
there, thats about it - if you have questions please use the chat box on the right.
The new blog for the signals can be found at http://tridentforex.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT 16:29 innit marvelous - the wife wants taking to do some shopping and you miss the best trade of the day!
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT 14:24 never forget to add spread when in a short - its easy to look at a chart and see a peak and place your stop there - always remember that a chart price is BID
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT 11:19 last trade closed at -15 - took another long - got to be careful here - starting to feel like i'm trading erratically because of news. still have the feeling that cable will rise but then i shouldnt be acting on feeling - hmmm, not really felt like this for a long time. my main reasons have all been technical but I am breaking a few rules this morning so got to be careful
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade 11:6GBPUSD at 1.96450000 Stop at 1.96150000 Take Profit at 1.97450000 Comment: autocomment:
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade 10:43GBPUSD at 1.96570000 Stop at 1.96270000 Take Profit at 1.97570000 Comment:
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade GBPUSD at 1.96660000 Stop at 1.96360000 Take Profit at 1.97660000first trade of the day then
TRADING COMMENT
COMMENT just noticed this blog has the time wrong - its showing the last posts as 8 31 and it was in fact around 8 23 - this one is being sent at 8.27 and i dont know what it will say - guessi will have to also put a timestamp in the comments
Monday, January 15, 2007
weird!!
now, as you can see from the attached picture the stop was moved before the trading comment mail was sent - but for some reason the first mail arrived after the second mail so it looks like i moved the stop after it closed.
i guess that's the problem with blog by email!
NEW TRADE
Autoblog - Discretionary Long Trade GBPUSD at 1.96400000 Stop at 1.96100000 Take Profit at 1.97400000 autocomment:testing a long then - cant resist - trading starts proper tomorrow
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
BACK TRADING
Hi all, I'm back trading with hilda againand this is soooo cool.
I now have a way of adressing the blog directly from my account with Mig Investments.
It uses an expert advisor that automatically emails the blog with my entries and stop moves and also any trades I close.
on each expert i can also add comments to go with the trade.
Ive changed the blog so it only shows one days posting on the home page so in theory you will only see todays trades.
what you will not see is when a trade is stopped out so you have to watch the stop levels i post.
Most of the time this is how a trade ends - I dont tend to close trades myself, choosing instead to follow trades with a moving stop - i will cover this for you sometime soon in an article.
In the meantime, as the trades appear please ask any questions using the chat box to the right.
I've just reset all the posts ive been experimenting with so from now on I should be posting only genuine trades. :)
I now have a way of adressing the blog directly from my account with Mig Investments.
It uses an expert advisor that automatically emails the blog with my entries and stop moves and also any trades I close.
on each expert i can also add comments to go with the trade.
Ive changed the blog so it only shows one days posting on the home page so in theory you will only see todays trades.
what you will not see is when a trade is stopped out so you have to watch the stop levels i post.
Most of the time this is how a trade ends - I dont tend to close trades myself, choosing instead to follow trades with a moving stop - i will cover this for you sometime soon in an article.
In the meantime, as the trades appear please ask any questions using the chat box to the right.
I've just reset all the posts ive been experimenting with so from now on I should be posting only genuine trades. :)
Sunday, December 17, 2006
expert changed
ok, boring in new york tonight (honest!) so done some programming - this willresult in most open trades being closed for a loss - just so ou know it aint the system that lost so much :)
Thursday, December 14, 2006
closes so far
eurjpy on trail +184 pips
nzdjpy closed on trail +133
audchf closed on system exit signal as seen below -42 pips
cadjpy closed on trail +69 pips
not bad eh - another 417 pips in total closed.
there is a problem tho, usdchf should have closed at 1.2078 according to system - the expert failed to close for some reason and is now -140 ish, have to have a look at that when i get back in the uk
eurjpy on trail +184 pips
nzdjpy closed on trail +133
audchf closed on system exit signal as seen below -42 pips
cadjpy closed on trail +69 pips
not bad eh - another 417 pips in total closed.
there is a problem tho, usdchf should have closed at 1.2078 according to system - the expert failed to close for some reason and is now -140 ish, have to have a look at that when i get back in the uk
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Monday, December 11, 2006
trail in
cad jpy now has an 80 pip trailer
eurjpy now has a 60 pip trailer
eurcad stopped out 1.5197 for +28 pips
you'll have to track em yourself now for a bit - calls will be made automatically by the robot trader but i am too busy at the mo to add comments.
follow the calls - aint doing bad are they? - to date it's made +417 including some shite ones i started off with manually - thats in 3 weeks.
catch you soon.
eurjpy now has a 60 pip trailer
eurcad stopped out 1.5197 for +28 pips
you'll have to track em yourself now for a bit - calls will be made automatically by the robot trader but i am too busy at the mo to add comments.
follow the calls - aint doing bad are they? - to date it's made +417 including some shite ones i started off with manually - thats in 3 weeks.
catch you soon.
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Friday, December 08, 2006
have a good weekend
Ok, here is the state of play at the mo - numbers are in pips. Just $10k lots for the testing phase
and here's the swissy trade to prove it :)
Have a great weekend, catch you Monday
and here's the swissy trade to prove it :)
Have a great weekend, catch you Monday
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Interesting.
Ok, this autoblogging thing is kinda cool - the posts appear very fast but maybe i should attach a timestamp to the mail too? dunno.
Anyway, it's live now - i might take some disc trades later today and the plodder is on auto mode.
That gold was a nice trade for 127 pips :)
currently running on plodder is:
usdchf short from 1.2439 - stop at 1.1997
eurcad short from 1.5225
cadjpy long from 100.57
audchf long from 0.9398
you should be able to track the performance from the mails now - only swissy has the trailer in at the mo. Note that if you get two posts closing a trade it's most likely a re-quote like the gold one below
Anyway, it's live now - i might take some disc trades later today and the plodder is on auto mode.
That gold was a nice trade for 127 pips :)
currently running on plodder is:
usdchf short from 1.2439 - stop at 1.1997
eurcad short from 1.5225
cadjpy long from 100.57
audchf long from 0.9398
you should be able to track the performance from the mails now - only swissy has the trailer in at the mo. Note that if you get two posts closing a trade it's most likely a re-quote like the gold one below
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
clever
clever - the modification email gets here before the trade placed email! typical; blogger that is!!!
I entered the trade, modified twice and thenclosed it and only one poxy email made it here! all four emails got through from my smtp server so it has to be the blogger end.
I entered the trade, modified twice and thenclosed it and only one poxy email made it here! all four emails got through from my smtp server so it has to be the blogger end.
ok, fun time
Ok, listen carefully.
Ive now made my new robot trader so it will email the blog automatically when it does anything.
Ive also made one which will post my discretionary trades also.
Heres how it will work.
The new robot is called the Plodder - so called because some trades take ages and also because it's on a 4 hour chart. for example my short usdchf trade has been running since the 20th and is still in.
if you see a plodder email then that is a real live autotrade. you will see entries and exits and stop moves also - it emails the minute it changes, enters or exits a trade. - note that the plodder does not have an initial stop until it's trailer kicks in.
Please note that i already have 6 trades running and if there are any changes to those trades you will also see them. The only time the expert will not send an email is when the trade is taken out on it's trailing stop - i'm working on that though and hopefully it will do this in the future.
The discretionary trade expert operates exactly the same way - you'll get entries, exits and stop moves.
Lets hope it works right :) - first thing i'm going to test it out on a quick demo trade so ignore the first one - after 3pm trades will be real
Ive now made my new robot trader so it will email the blog automatically when it does anything.
Ive also made one which will post my discretionary trades also.
Heres how it will work.
The new robot is called the Plodder - so called because some trades take ages and also because it's on a 4 hour chart. for example my short usdchf trade has been running since the 20th and is still in.
if you see a plodder email then that is a real live autotrade. you will see entries and exits and stop moves also - it emails the minute it changes, enters or exits a trade. - note that the plodder does not have an initial stop until it's trailer kicks in.
Please note that i already have 6 trades running and if there are any changes to those trades you will also see them. The only time the expert will not send an email is when the trade is taken out on it's trailing stop - i'm working on that though and hopefully it will do this in the future.
The discretionary trade expert operates exactly the same way - you'll get entries, exits and stop moves.
Lets hope it works right :) - first thing i'm going to test it out on a quick demo trade so ignore the first one - after 3pm trades will be real
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
New results soon
Hi y'all.
just an update then - this new idea i had is coming on, so much so that I 've been working on an autotrader.
The autotrader now works and i'm currently working on parameters for each pair. Once ive done that and got em all as i want them then i will probarbly start posting the results for you to have a look at.
It's not intraday though, more swing trading on a 4 hour chart.
Will speak soon, may the pips be with you :)
STOP PRESS - just setup mt4 to send trades to my blog so you may start to see some trade posts in here. - don't take em tho :)
just an update then - this new idea i had is coming on, so much so that I 've been working on an autotrader.
The autotrader now works and i'm currently working on parameters for each pair. Once ive done that and got em all as i want them then i will probarbly start posting the results for you to have a look at.
It's not intraday though, more swing trading on a 4 hour chart.
Will speak soon, may the pips be with you :)
STOP PRESS - just setup mt4 to send trades to my blog so you may start to see some trade posts in here. - don't take em tho :)
Monday, November 27, 2006
sorry and all that
Sorry and all that - I thought i could but i just cannot be arsed to keep up with the blog .
I did try honest but I guess i'll keep on trying.
The experiment is still running and i'm gettinjg into it now. the statement of current positions below shows how it's going - there have been a few closes which lost and some which won so on closed positions i'm about flat - slightly negative.
Ive blanked out the gbp trade cos its a secret - the audusd ones are crappy firebird which i just cant seem to drop yet and the EJ trade is another expert - the rest - the euro, chf, etc are all a different system ive been trying on a 4 hour chart - so far so good. - quite a while since i saw numbers like that :)
Oh, my moral dilemma - I took the long cable, shoved the kids in an orphanage with a bag of nuts and a blood orange :)
I did try honest but I guess i'll keep on trying.
The experiment is still running and i'm gettinjg into it now. the statement of current positions below shows how it's going - there have been a few closes which lost and some which won so on closed positions i'm about flat - slightly negative.
Ive blanked out the gbp trade cos its a secret - the audusd ones are crappy firebird which i just cant seem to drop yet and the EJ trade is another expert - the rest - the euro, chf, etc are all a different system ive been trying on a 4 hour chart - so far so good. - quite a while since i saw numbers like that :)
Oh, my moral dilemma - I took the long cable, shoved the kids in an orphanage with a bag of nuts and a blood orange :)
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
MY MORAL DILEMMA
Afraid this test is again a bit bolloxed - found a bug in the code so i will have to start again next monday - here's what happened anyway and it lost money :(
we'll start again on Monday I think.
MY MORAL DILEMMA
here's a new feature of the website - every now and again I'll set you a moral dilemma and it's up to you to answer in the comments bit at the bottom of this message.
So, here's the first.
Sammy and Rebecca are 6 and 7 year old kids. Their mum and dad are a bit hard up this christmas however all their friends are saying that because they have been good that santa is bringing them a playstation and a plasma tv.
They think that they have been good too so they are telling you, mum and dad, that Santa will be bringing them the same.
They are so excited by this but there is no way in this world that you can afford such extravagant gifts - so what do you do:
1. Wait till Christmas day and tell them Santa's sleigh broke down just after he delievered their mates's presents and so he had to come around by foot and all he could carry for you was this plastic bucket?
2. Tell them their friends are misguided and that Santa does not exist and they will have to make do with a bag of nuts and a blood orange?
3. Buy them the playstation and Plasma going into massive debt
4. consider buying the gifts and going into debt but instead getting the money and blowing it all on a long cable position and thinking 'fuck the kids'
5. something else (answers required)
Have fun :)
we'll start again on Monday I think.
MY MORAL DILEMMA
here's a new feature of the website - every now and again I'll set you a moral dilemma and it's up to you to answer in the comments bit at the bottom of this message.
So, here's the first.
Sammy and Rebecca are 6 and 7 year old kids. Their mum and dad are a bit hard up this christmas however all their friends are saying that because they have been good that santa is bringing them a playstation and a plasma tv.
They think that they have been good too so they are telling you, mum and dad, that Santa will be bringing them the same.
They are so excited by this but there is no way in this world that you can afford such extravagant gifts - so what do you do:
1. Wait till Christmas day and tell them Santa's sleigh broke down just after he delievered their mates's presents and so he had to come around by foot and all he could carry for you was this plastic bucket?
2. Tell them their friends are misguided and that Santa does not exist and they will have to make do with a bag of nuts and a blood orange?
3. Buy them the playstation and Plasma going into massive debt
4. consider buying the gifts and going into debt but instead getting the money and blowing it all on a long cable position and thinking 'fuck the kids'
5. something else (answers required)
Have fun :)
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
first 24 hrs
ok,
been a sliught change on the takle profit and stop loss etc - the tp is dynamic but set at 50 pips max - most will not make it that far.
anyway, heres the first days results on closed trades - remember only one trade is open at a time
result so far -$50.00
been a sliught change on the takle profit and stop loss etc - the tp is dynamic but set at 50 pips max - most will not make it that far.
anyway, heres the first days results on closed trades - remember only one trade is open at a time
result so far -$50.00
Friday, November 10, 2006
delays
due to programming changes there's been a bit of a delay in getting edgefinder attached to charts that we can leave alone.
as a result the experiment will be restarted on Monday and results should flow from tuesday onwards.
Have a great weekend
as a result the experiment will be restarted on Monday and results should flow from tuesday onwards.
Have a great weekend
Thursday, November 09, 2006
late n' busy
sorry for the lateness - been so busy trying to find a hotel in NYC, booking flights and shit.
yesterday i cancelled the audjpy trades cos it was clearly going to sleep.
ive closed the euro trades for 45 negative pips cos i needed euro to place an expert on.
I closed eurocad for +8 pips overall, Gold for +12 and GBPAUD short closed for -200 ish lol but it does have some longs in which are in profit.
I'm getting very bored with this strategy and tired with it - might be a bummer or maybe it's just me that i dont have the patience to sit looking for ranges. - most likely the latter.
Yesterday i slipped into 'active daytrading' again - I was in a paltalk room and just got into the groove of looking at hilda charts. I made some good trades and a couple not so good but i didnt like it.
I got back into that fuckin horrible mental state where you are watching price all the time for the dips and peaks - studying the bloody indicators again and having to be riveted to the screen. Yesterday reminded me why i gave up discretionary trading and i'm not going to fall into that trap again. I want to do less not more.
so, with that in mind I have ressurected one of my old projects the edgefinder.
I kinds gave up on edgefinder a long time ago cos i didnt have the patience to just leave the settings alone. However this thing is a bit like a drug, there is something in it and i want to find out what it is and put it to rest.
The reason I couldnt make it work before was that the broker just rejected the good trades and kept the bad ones - on the tester it was fine but in reality it picked the tops and bottoms exactly - unfortunately as it was precise by the time the order got to the broker price had already moved.
So, to try and get around this i'm going to run it on a longer timeframe where the entries are not so precise - sounds weird doesnt it that you have to find a way to make it trade at 'not quite' the best price, but that's it.
So what i've done is place it on a Euro 15 min chart and we will see what happens. So far it's taken 2 trades and won 2.
The system uses a kind of band - it's a special one that our team have made. The band catches the tops and bottoms of price wiggles - a bit like firebird does but without the multiple trades - this has only one trade at a time.
So when it hits the top of a band it takes a short and vice versa for the bottom band. Take profit is small at 7 pips and a stop is 20 pips. - to make money at this the win / loss must equate to at least 75%. In tests it was nearer 89% so time will tell.
I'll post the days results every morning to see how it's going. even in the test it did have periods of non movement - you know, up a few down a few - biggest period was about 2 weeks in october so lets give it a full month and see shall we :)
in tests
yesterday i cancelled the audjpy trades cos it was clearly going to sleep.
ive closed the euro trades for 45 negative pips cos i needed euro to place an expert on.
I closed eurocad for +8 pips overall, Gold for +12 and GBPAUD short closed for -200 ish lol but it does have some longs in which are in profit.
I'm getting very bored with this strategy and tired with it - might be a bummer or maybe it's just me that i dont have the patience to sit looking for ranges. - most likely the latter.
Yesterday i slipped into 'active daytrading' again - I was in a paltalk room and just got into the groove of looking at hilda charts. I made some good trades and a couple not so good but i didnt like it.
I got back into that fuckin horrible mental state where you are watching price all the time for the dips and peaks - studying the bloody indicators again and having to be riveted to the screen. Yesterday reminded me why i gave up discretionary trading and i'm not going to fall into that trap again. I want to do less not more.
so, with that in mind I have ressurected one of my old projects the edgefinder.
I kinds gave up on edgefinder a long time ago cos i didnt have the patience to just leave the settings alone. However this thing is a bit like a drug, there is something in it and i want to find out what it is and put it to rest.
The reason I couldnt make it work before was that the broker just rejected the good trades and kept the bad ones - on the tester it was fine but in reality it picked the tops and bottoms exactly - unfortunately as it was precise by the time the order got to the broker price had already moved.
So, to try and get around this i'm going to run it on a longer timeframe where the entries are not so precise - sounds weird doesnt it that you have to find a way to make it trade at 'not quite' the best price, but that's it.
So what i've done is place it on a Euro 15 min chart and we will see what happens. So far it's taken 2 trades and won 2.
The system uses a kind of band - it's a special one that our team have made. The band catches the tops and bottoms of price wiggles - a bit like firebird does but without the multiple trades - this has only one trade at a time.
So when it hits the top of a band it takes a short and vice versa for the bottom band. Take profit is small at 7 pips and a stop is 20 pips. - to make money at this the win / loss must equate to at least 75%. In tests it was nearer 89% so time will tell.
I'll post the days results every morning to see how it's going. even in the test it did have periods of non movement - you know, up a few down a few - biggest period was about 2 weeks in october so lets give it a full month and see shall we :)
in tests
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Getting bored - time to change!
Morning all,
Must admit that I didnt want these breakouts to be in for days and days . It's ok like but on those pairs that have a negative swap it can very easiy eat into your profits.
I also think that the reason for this is the size of the breakouts i'm looking at so it's time for a change.
Firstly lets recap on what is running and the state of play.
worst offender at the mo is GBPAUD which entered short on Monday with a first position at 2.4579 and is currently 200 pips in the red. at least this one is +ve intrest.
second is CADJPY - this one went short monday, long monday and has now gone back short - the stop on the long triggered so a loss of $153 to make up with the shorts of which there are now 3 positions running at about break even - this is a -ve interest position so hoping it will give a run today and get closed before the triple intrest tonight.
3rd up is EURCAD - thankfully this one has gone in a single direction :) North - again a -ve intrest position but not a large swap - it has 2 positions open but looking as slow as a busfull of mongs.
Gold still hasnt triggered and i might ditch it later - but for the time bring i'll hold.
So, what do i mean by making changes?
Well, im going to have a go looking at shorter timeframes and tighter ranges - this is how i did ok the first time i started doing this expert - you do get a few more losers but mostly you are in and out in one day.
So, the first one of these trades is on euro and looks like this
here's the close up
Second one is on Swissy - going to be a bit risky here and pop a gid of 5 pips on it - thats 5 pips between the trades - pic is below - catch you later or tomorrow.
Must admit that I didnt want these breakouts to be in for days and days . It's ok like but on those pairs that have a negative swap it can very easiy eat into your profits.
I also think that the reason for this is the size of the breakouts i'm looking at so it's time for a change.
Firstly lets recap on what is running and the state of play.
worst offender at the mo is GBPAUD which entered short on Monday with a first position at 2.4579 and is currently 200 pips in the red. at least this one is +ve intrest.
second is CADJPY - this one went short monday, long monday and has now gone back short - the stop on the long triggered so a loss of $153 to make up with the shorts of which there are now 3 positions running at about break even - this is a -ve interest position so hoping it will give a run today and get closed before the triple intrest tonight.
3rd up is EURCAD - thankfully this one has gone in a single direction :) North - again a -ve intrest position but not a large swap - it has 2 positions open but looking as slow as a busfull of mongs.
Gold still hasnt triggered and i might ditch it later - but for the time bring i'll hold.
So, what do i mean by making changes?
Well, im going to have a go looking at shorter timeframes and tighter ranges - this is how i did ok the first time i started doing this expert - you do get a few more losers but mostly you are in and out in one day.
So, the first one of these trades is on euro and looks like this
here's the close up
Second one is on Swissy - going to be a bit risky here and pop a gid of 5 pips on it - thats 5 pips between the trades - pic is below - catch you later or tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Tuesday
Morning all,
Update on yesterday then - I played the news expert on GJ and nothing happened - then I played it again on cad at noon and nothing happened there either so no news trades.
the breakouts are still active - the CADJPY has one trade north and one trade south so we are now waiting for a breakout of that range.
GBPAUD has taken one trade south and gone back into the range. I'm happy its a short first because it's swap positive so happy to wait on that one.
Now then, for todays stuff. anything that has been stuck in a range since Friday is fair game now
First breakout addition is this one from EURCAD
this is on the 1 hour chart and it's nice to see the 200sma within spitting distance and within the range.
Also got to say i'm soooo tempted to short cable today - nice retrace happening to make a lower high on the 4 hr chart and then a drop - that's providing it's a lower high of course. Won't be doing that though cos i'm not mad on discretion anymore.
Final pick for a breakout this morning is Gold. Gold is in a tight range of just 10 dollars - see chart below.
catch ya later or tomorrow :)
Update on yesterday then - I played the news expert on GJ and nothing happened - then I played it again on cad at noon and nothing happened there either so no news trades.
the breakouts are still active - the CADJPY has one trade north and one trade south so we are now waiting for a breakout of that range.
GBPAUD has taken one trade south and gone back into the range. I'm happy its a short first because it's swap positive so happy to wait on that one.
Now then, for todays stuff. anything that has been stuck in a range since Friday is fair game now
First breakout addition is this one from EURCAD
this is on the 1 hour chart and it's nice to see the 200sma within spitting distance and within the range.
Also got to say i'm soooo tempted to short cable today - nice retrace happening to make a lower high on the 4 hr chart and then a drop - that's providing it's a lower high of course. Won't be doing that though cos i'm not mad on discretion anymore.
Final pick for a breakout this morning is Gold. Gold is in a tight range of just 10 dollars - see chart below.
catch ya later or tomorrow :)
Monday, November 06, 2006
Monday ... Ugh!
Morning all, Hope you had a fine weekend.
Ok, first things first - coffee!
I bought some of these dowe egbert things this weekend and ive just had one to kick start my day - why am i telling you about this? because if you havent seen these things yet they make a fantastic coffee without a machine - check em out here
Right - trading then :)
I always feel that after a strong NFP move that the market is a bit like one of those snow globe things - just in turmoil and not knowing what to do. So generally on the monday following NFP I keep away from the dollar pairs and look for something that shows a little more stability in the chart.
So, looking around for my breakouts today ive spotted this first off
I was trading CADJPY on friday with another system and quite liked it - but this morning on the 30 min a nice channel seems to have formed and although i'm a bit 'anti-trading' today I couldnt resist this one.
0.2 lots then, 15 up and 15 down from 104.8 for the top break and 104.15 on the bottom break.
Second Trade spotted is a longer term one and will possibly take the rest of the week to break.
Ive spotted this on a one hour chart on GBPAUD - take a look.
orders set at the usual parameters for a hibreak or 2.4892 and a lobreak of 2.4579 - quite a gap there but i think you can see a proper range setup there.
The focus this week will be on the UK intrest rate decision - it is expected that the BOE will raise rates by .025% and that is already factored into the market - the fun will be if they decide not to or they decide to go for .05% - the latter of which is highly unlikely.
Industrial production is out at 09:30 GMT and that could cause some fun - I'll be runnng my breakout trader on GBPJPY for that one i think :) - will let you know the results later.
Ok, first things first - coffee!
I bought some of these dowe egbert things this weekend and ive just had one to kick start my day - why am i telling you about this? because if you havent seen these things yet they make a fantastic coffee without a machine - check em out here
Right - trading then :)
I always feel that after a strong NFP move that the market is a bit like one of those snow globe things - just in turmoil and not knowing what to do. So generally on the monday following NFP I keep away from the dollar pairs and look for something that shows a little more stability in the chart.
So, looking around for my breakouts today ive spotted this first off
I was trading CADJPY on friday with another system and quite liked it - but this morning on the 30 min a nice channel seems to have formed and although i'm a bit 'anti-trading' today I couldnt resist this one.
0.2 lots then, 15 up and 15 down from 104.8 for the top break and 104.15 on the bottom break.
Second Trade spotted is a longer term one and will possibly take the rest of the week to break.
Ive spotted this on a one hour chart on GBPAUD - take a look.
orders set at the usual parameters for a hibreak or 2.4892 and a lobreak of 2.4579 - quite a gap there but i think you can see a proper range setup there.
The focus this week will be on the UK intrest rate decision - it is expected that the BOE will raise rates by .025% and that is already factored into the market - the fun will be if they decide not to or they decide to go for .05% - the latter of which is highly unlikely.
Industrial production is out at 09:30 GMT and that could cause some fun - I'll be runnng my breakout trader on GBPJPY for that one i think :) - will let you know the results later.
Saturday, November 04, 2006
Gordon Brown you Tosser
Well, time for a weekend rant :)
Yesterday I was watching the news at 10 and heard the story.
Bankrupcies in the UK are now at the highest levels since records began.
It really does not suprise me. This 'marvelous' economy that Gordon Brown is so proud of has been paid for on the never never. What does suprise me is that the vast majority of the brisish public cannot see it.
Think about this - when Labour came into power in 1997 they had a golden handshake from the tories with a positive bank account of billions. I don't know the figure exactly but it was a golden opportunity and Gordon Brown blew it.
Labour have always been 'tax and spend' but Gordon Brown has taken it to a new level. This scottish fool has taken that golden legacy and squandered it on hundreds of thousands of civil servant jobs, qwango's and silly initiatives that have not worked because they had thicko's like Prescott coming up with the idea. I mean come on! who in their right mind put a fucking cabin boy as second in command of the country. Prescott is for another day and another rant anyway.
We are now a country that is billions in debt - to the point that the world bank are getting very nervous about our future. Thanks a bunch Gordon.
I cannot believe how the majority of the country cannot see what they have done to us.
Credit has been so easy to get and as the intrest rates have been low they've just piled on the debt. The average briton is now £8,000 in debt - now that isnt a lot to you and me but the average wage in this country is around £20k pa IF you are lucky.
Gordons slimy smile has been paid for on a credit card - as has the british economy. He has done nothing to warn people of what they are doing - just continued to do that slimy smile and spend spend spend.
Ive been saying to the wife for the past year that things will be turning sour very soon. There is only so long that you can keep this up. Gordon Brown didnt plan for 3 terms in office - his plan was for 8 years and then to leave the tories with the shit to contend with. But he didnt realise how gullible the vast majory of this country is and they got voted in a third time.
He must've been crapping himself - that's why he's so trying to oust blair and claim the crown - it's the only chance he has because the cracks are starting to show - just as they did in 1979. The country will not return him to power at the next general election. Not through this but through Iraq - I dont care what the reason is as long as they are gone
Bankrupcies up, companies closing, hospitals being closed before they are even opened because they are in debt - the signs are clear.
The country is going to the dogs, i really hope that people see sense and do not return this scottish asshole to the biggest office in the land. I cannot think of anyone less capable.
If they do, will the last person out please switch off the lights.
Yesterday I was watching the news at 10 and heard the story.
Bankrupcies in the UK are now at the highest levels since records began.
It really does not suprise me. This 'marvelous' economy that Gordon Brown is so proud of has been paid for on the never never. What does suprise me is that the vast majority of the brisish public cannot see it.
Think about this - when Labour came into power in 1997 they had a golden handshake from the tories with a positive bank account of billions. I don't know the figure exactly but it was a golden opportunity and Gordon Brown blew it.
Labour have always been 'tax and spend' but Gordon Brown has taken it to a new level. This scottish fool has taken that golden legacy and squandered it on hundreds of thousands of civil servant jobs, qwango's and silly initiatives that have not worked because they had thicko's like Prescott coming up with the idea. I mean come on! who in their right mind put a fucking cabin boy as second in command of the country. Prescott is for another day and another rant anyway.
We are now a country that is billions in debt - to the point that the world bank are getting very nervous about our future. Thanks a bunch Gordon.
I cannot believe how the majority of the country cannot see what they have done to us.
Credit has been so easy to get and as the intrest rates have been low they've just piled on the debt. The average briton is now £8,000 in debt - now that isnt a lot to you and me but the average wage in this country is around £20k pa IF you are lucky.
Gordons slimy smile has been paid for on a credit card - as has the british economy. He has done nothing to warn people of what they are doing - just continued to do that slimy smile and spend spend spend.
Ive been saying to the wife for the past year that things will be turning sour very soon. There is only so long that you can keep this up. Gordon Brown didnt plan for 3 terms in office - his plan was for 8 years and then to leave the tories with the shit to contend with. But he didnt realise how gullible the vast majory of this country is and they got voted in a third time.
He must've been crapping himself - that's why he's so trying to oust blair and claim the crown - it's the only chance he has because the cracks are starting to show - just as they did in 1979. The country will not return him to power at the next general election. Not through this but through Iraq - I dont care what the reason is as long as they are gone
Bankrupcies up, companies closing, hospitals being closed before they are even opened because they are in debt - the signs are clear.
The country is going to the dogs, i really hope that people see sense and do not return this scottish asshole to the biggest office in the land. I cannot think of anyone less capable.
If they do, will the last person out please switch off the lights.
Friday, November 03, 2006
closing Breakouts
Ok, my breakouts are in profit and hitting resistance so EURUSD closed on the 1hr 200 sma
Also closed swissy now - swissy's short from yesterday closed out for a loss but was well compensated for from the longs - see now how this strategy works? - heres the chf screen
Finally theres audusd which has two shorts running and leaving open a bit - see what happens
heres the winners and losers - can't show you the whole statement cos other stuff is running
The Wins
The Losses
Also closed swissy now - swissy's short from yesterday closed out for a loss but was well compensated for from the longs - see now how this strategy works? - heres the chf screen
Finally theres audusd which has two shorts running and leaving open a bit - see what happens
heres the winners and losers - can't show you the whole statement cos other stuff is running
The Wins
The Losses
Nice One
Ok, at NFP i tested out my 'newstrader expert' which worked but had a problem - becuase all the breakout trades were doing the oco bit it had problems processing the orders - however it did place them and the result is below - It opened trades at 117.35 - 45 - 55 - 65 - 75 - 85 - 95 and 05
I closed them all with my closer expert at 85 86 and 87 for 131 cumulative pips.
hmmm, next time maybe ill go a full lot on each one :)
ill update you on the breakouts soon but all are doing ok :)
suprisingly i had no slippage at all on any of the orders - Using MIG that is.
I closed them all with my closer expert at 85 86 and 87 for 131 cumulative pips.
hmmm, next time maybe ill go a full lot on each one :)
ill update you on the breakouts soon but all are doing ok :)
suprisingly i had no slippage at all on any of the orders - Using MIG that is.
NFP Blues!
What a wank day and a wank week! Bloody NFP always makes for a shit week.
Anyway - got asked a question in the chat thingy. Bill asked me about the effect of midterm elections in the usa on the euro and the dollar as a whole - here's my answer.
I don't trade or have any interest in News bill. I aim to make all my trading as mechanical as it possibly can be and a mechanical system does not know when news is out, does not know if it is good news or bad etc.
So as far as the market goes i really dont know what will happen and don't care.
As far as personal thoughts. I don't like bush and think he is the most dangerous man in the world. I think a bad result for bush would result in a positive expectation for the rest of the world.
as for what it would do for the dollar i couldnt care less as long as i'm in the move, up or down :)
With all due respect Bill, you have the dumbest asshole of a president of all time. I love America and most of it's people but, like the majority of the UK, I hate Bush and the neo cons.
Now then - let me tell you all where I am in trading at the mo.
I still have a breakout on EUR/USD with points at 2810 for longs and 2733 for shorts - thats been there a day now so hopefully nfp will take it one way or whatever.
I have a breakout on USDCHF 2477 long and 2441 short - this has been in a day too and i made a boo boo - when i placed the break i had it on a 15 min instead of my usual 30 or above - so i have 2 chf trades live - one long and one short - the grid is still in place tho as you can see from the screenshot below
my third is audusd -7773 for longs and 7704 for shorts - again in for a day and 1 trade short triggered. lets see where it goes, if i get chance after nfp i'll update, if not then tomorrow or monday.
Anyway - got asked a question in the chat thingy. Bill asked me about the effect of midterm elections in the usa on the euro and the dollar as a whole - here's my answer.
I don't trade or have any interest in News bill. I aim to make all my trading as mechanical as it possibly can be and a mechanical system does not know when news is out, does not know if it is good news or bad etc.
So as far as the market goes i really dont know what will happen and don't care.
As far as personal thoughts. I don't like bush and think he is the most dangerous man in the world. I think a bad result for bush would result in a positive expectation for the rest of the world.
as for what it would do for the dollar i couldnt care less as long as i'm in the move, up or down :)
With all due respect Bill, you have the dumbest asshole of a president of all time. I love America and most of it's people but, like the majority of the UK, I hate Bush and the neo cons.
Now then - let me tell you all where I am in trading at the mo.
I still have a breakout on EUR/USD with points at 2810 for longs and 2733 for shorts - thats been there a day now so hopefully nfp will take it one way or whatever.
I have a breakout on USDCHF 2477 long and 2441 short - this has been in a day too and i made a boo boo - when i placed the break i had it on a 15 min instead of my usual 30 or above - so i have 2 chf trades live - one long and one short - the grid is still in place tho as you can see from the screenshot below
my third is audusd -7773 for longs and 7704 for shorts - again in for a day and 1 trade short triggered. lets see where it goes, if i get chance after nfp i'll update, if not then tomorrow or monday.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Trading The Break
Ok, sorry for the Delay in this - went out yesterday.
So, firstly thanks for all the well wishes and i appreciate em all except Baruch - he can piss off and drop from a great height LOL dickhead.
Denham nice to know you are still around, Todd thanks for the birthday message for grail and etc etc to the others :) Beer in NYC, hmmm not sure - when you hear what i think about your poor excuse for a president you might not want to :)
And Jonkris, nice to hear from you mate - another satisfied hilda buyer :) Hope you enjoy what's to come.
Before I start wittering on about trading and shit you may want to check out the grail blog which has just been updated.
So, what am i going to whitter on about on this blog. Guess i'd better tell you what i'm playing with at the moment.
Myself and a friend opened a MIG account purely with the intention of experimenting on systems and shit. we opened it with $18k (£10k) and have just played with potential systems - we played with firebird for a month or so which is a bag of crap - I developed one called Predator which was a bag of crap and at one point the account was drawn down to less than $7k LOL - but then that's what the account was for.
Anyway, a month later and some canny discretionary trading and the account now stands at $20k+ so it's time to play again.
This time I am looking at a breakout system of trading which is discretionary but is aided by an expert advisor.
So, let me explain to you how i'm doing this and how most do this.
lets have a look at a chart shall we.
This is the way most people identify a breakout and place orders. This particular example is NZDJPY today and although it aint the best example its the best i can do at the mo.
So what they do is place a long $10 @ 78.97 and a short @78.45
eventually one will trigger and they will close the opposite order. The stop they will generally place about 10 pips lower that the opposite breakout.
Ok, and that's fine - you would actually make money that way albeit sporadic. Breakout trading is a great way of trading - why? because it uses no indicators and only recent support / resistance - it's a price based system.
so, how do I do it different?
Well, firstly i dont go in 100% at the first break. Think about this - a lot of breakouts are false positives - ie they break out but then drop back into the range or worst case scenario they totally reverse and stop out your position -you then have a full stop out and sit there wondering if you should go the opposite way and miss the boat.
So my approach (and bear in mind this is merely an experiment that you are a part of) is that I build into a position $1 at a time. - this will be easier to show on a chart.
This is EURUSD on a 1 hour - I identified this range this morning and plonked the figures into my expert.
My expert then places 15 trades north and 15 trades south starting at the figures I specified. - the white line is a 200sma by the way - if i fancy a smaller timeframe breakout then i'll look on the 5 min for a chart where price is bouncing above and below the 200sma - that really will be a breakout as the market has no direction.
anyway, the 15 trades are all 0.1 lots each so lets analyse this - first though i'd better tell you exactly what the expert does - then you can build your own if you like
i put into the expert the hibreak and lobreak points - i decided on how many trades long and how many short and i decide how many pips between the entries. i can also decide a take profit if i wish and another 2 inputs - 1 of which is how many pips past the opposite entry the stop should be and finally an 'oco' closer - in other words if the trade goes in long then how many pips does it go long before the expert cancells the opposite breakout trades.
Got me so far?
so - here's the scenario using the euro chart above. - its placed 15 trades north and south - each trade is 15 pips apart and each trade has NO take profit. The stop for all the north trades are 20 pips below the south breakout level and vice versa for the south breakout trades.
whichever direction price breaks in, once it is 20 pips into profit it will close all opposite orders.
so, here are the scenario's of what can happen
Scenario 1
price breaks north or south - places 1 trade at $1 a pip, goes another 15 pips and places 2nd trade @$1 a pip - goes another 5 pips and cancells allopposite orders. cantinues to go in same direction. When trader happy all trades are closed by using expert no2 which just closes anything it sees on that pair.
Scenario 2
Price breaks and places a trade - goes another 15 pips and places trade 2 - price now retraces and goes the opposite way - you are at this point only $2 a pip as opposed to the normal breakout trader who is full in. Trade reaches opposite breakoutand enters one of your positions is no hedged. it continues another 15 pips and enters a second opposite position - you are now fully hedged. - price retraces here back into the range - you have a constant loss here and are waiting for a breakout again.
Price continues in direction 2 again this time going a further 5 pips which hits the stops on direction 1 AND closes all direction 1 orders - you have just taken a loss of $2 a pip on the first breakout BUT the second breakout is now in profit and running. Trade is closed when losses from breakout 1 are realised and some profit is made - basically discretion.
Scenario 3
This is the nightmare scenario and the worse that can happen - it does happen too and relatively often but how often we shall see as this experiment progresses.
The worst thing that can happen is this - breaks north 15 pips - reverses south and goes south 20 pips+ then reverses north again stopping out the south trades - then you have 4 trades on a full stopout the size of which is dependent of the size of the range. Probarbly about 60 pips top to bottom so 60*$4 = $240.
Think of the average breakout trader who is in $10 a pip - he just lost $600 one way and $1200 both ways if he plays that way.
So, there are several ways of playing this with regards to stops and oco cancels.
you could just have no stop and no oco - that way she goes north and takes you in say 4 positions and then reverses and takes you in say 12 positions and eventually makes more than it is losing. - this sounds great doesnt it - basically for you to lose money the following has to happen.
Now you prob think "there's not much chance of that" - well, think again - it happens often and the worse thing about it is that when you are in both ways you have to have a move double the range just to get break even. so if you have a 100 pip range that you are in from top to bottom you have to have a 200 pip rise from the top / bottom breakout to make money!
Anyway, absorb this and ask any questions you may have - im knackered now, been writing for ages and I haven't got a fucking clue why i'm doing this again?????
So, firstly thanks for all the well wishes and i appreciate em all except Baruch - he can piss off and drop from a great height LOL dickhead.
Denham nice to know you are still around, Todd thanks for the birthday message for grail and etc etc to the others :) Beer in NYC, hmmm not sure - when you hear what i think about your poor excuse for a president you might not want to :)
And Jonkris, nice to hear from you mate - another satisfied hilda buyer :) Hope you enjoy what's to come.
Before I start wittering on about trading and shit you may want to check out the grail blog which has just been updated.
So, what am i going to whitter on about on this blog. Guess i'd better tell you what i'm playing with at the moment.
Myself and a friend opened a MIG account purely with the intention of experimenting on systems and shit. we opened it with $18k (£10k) and have just played with potential systems - we played with firebird for a month or so which is a bag of crap - I developed one called Predator which was a bag of crap and at one point the account was drawn down to less than $7k LOL - but then that's what the account was for.
Anyway, a month later and some canny discretionary trading and the account now stands at $20k+ so it's time to play again.
This time I am looking at a breakout system of trading which is discretionary but is aided by an expert advisor.
So, let me explain to you how i'm doing this and how most do this.
lets have a look at a chart shall we.
This is the way most people identify a breakout and place orders. This particular example is NZDJPY today and although it aint the best example its the best i can do at the mo.
So what they do is place a long $10 @ 78.97 and a short @78.45
eventually one will trigger and they will close the opposite order. The stop they will generally place about 10 pips lower that the opposite breakout.
Ok, and that's fine - you would actually make money that way albeit sporadic. Breakout trading is a great way of trading - why? because it uses no indicators and only recent support / resistance - it's a price based system.
so, how do I do it different?
Well, firstly i dont go in 100% at the first break. Think about this - a lot of breakouts are false positives - ie they break out but then drop back into the range or worst case scenario they totally reverse and stop out your position -you then have a full stop out and sit there wondering if you should go the opposite way and miss the boat.
So my approach (and bear in mind this is merely an experiment that you are a part of) is that I build into a position $1 at a time. - this will be easier to show on a chart.
This is EURUSD on a 1 hour - I identified this range this morning and plonked the figures into my expert.
My expert then places 15 trades north and 15 trades south starting at the figures I specified. - the white line is a 200sma by the way - if i fancy a smaller timeframe breakout then i'll look on the 5 min for a chart where price is bouncing above and below the 200sma - that really will be a breakout as the market has no direction.
anyway, the 15 trades are all 0.1 lots each so lets analyse this - first though i'd better tell you exactly what the expert does - then you can build your own if you like
i put into the expert the hibreak and lobreak points - i decided on how many trades long and how many short and i decide how many pips between the entries. i can also decide a take profit if i wish and another 2 inputs - 1 of which is how many pips past the opposite entry the stop should be and finally an 'oco' closer - in other words if the trade goes in long then how many pips does it go long before the expert cancells the opposite breakout trades.
Got me so far?
so - here's the scenario using the euro chart above. - its placed 15 trades north and south - each trade is 15 pips apart and each trade has NO take profit. The stop for all the north trades are 20 pips below the south breakout level and vice versa for the south breakout trades.
whichever direction price breaks in, once it is 20 pips into profit it will close all opposite orders.
so, here are the scenario's of what can happen
Scenario 1
price breaks north or south - places 1 trade at $1 a pip, goes another 15 pips and places 2nd trade @$1 a pip - goes another 5 pips and cancells allopposite orders. cantinues to go in same direction. When trader happy all trades are closed by using expert no2 which just closes anything it sees on that pair.
Scenario 2
Price breaks and places a trade - goes another 15 pips and places trade 2 - price now retraces and goes the opposite way - you are at this point only $2 a pip as opposed to the normal breakout trader who is full in. Trade reaches opposite breakoutand enters one of your positions is no hedged. it continues another 15 pips and enters a second opposite position - you are now fully hedged. - price retraces here back into the range - you have a constant loss here and are waiting for a breakout again.
Price continues in direction 2 again this time going a further 5 pips which hits the stops on direction 1 AND closes all direction 1 orders - you have just taken a loss of $2 a pip on the first breakout BUT the second breakout is now in profit and running. Trade is closed when losses from breakout 1 are realised and some profit is made - basically discretion.
Scenario 3
This is the nightmare scenario and the worse that can happen - it does happen too and relatively often but how often we shall see as this experiment progresses.
The worst thing that can happen is this - breaks north 15 pips - reverses south and goes south 20 pips+ then reverses north again stopping out the south trades - then you have 4 trades on a full stopout the size of which is dependent of the size of the range. Probarbly about 60 pips top to bottom so 60*$4 = $240.
Think of the average breakout trader who is in $10 a pip - he just lost $600 one way and $1200 both ways if he plays that way.
So, there are several ways of playing this with regards to stops and oco cancels.
you could just have no stop and no oco - that way she goes north and takes you in say 4 positions and then reverses and takes you in say 12 positions and eventually makes more than it is losing. - this sounds great doesnt it - basically for you to lose money the following has to happen.
Now you prob think "there's not much chance of that" - well, think again - it happens often and the worse thing about it is that when you are in both ways you have to have a move double the range just to get break even. so if you have a 100 pip range that you are in from top to bottom you have to have a 200 pip rise from the top / bottom breakout to make money!
Anyway, absorb this and ask any questions you may have - im knackered now, been writing for ages and I haven't got a fucking clue why i'm doing this again?????
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Predator gets eaten!!
Update then.
Been testing presdator now for four weeks.
the first week on demo took a 10k account to 16k by the end of the week ran at 10:1
the first three weeks on a real account took an 18k account to 16k ran at 5:1
so basically its pants and ive ditched it. I might re-investigate sometime in the future but for now nope.
Testing now moves to the next promising thing which is Mike Whispers promising 'Early Bird' system.
Take care y'all
Been testing presdator now for four weeks.
the first week on demo took a 10k account to 16k by the end of the week ran at 10:1
the first three weeks on a real account took an 18k account to 16k ran at 5:1
so basically its pants and ive ditched it. I might re-investigate sometime in the future but for now nope.
Testing now moves to the next promising thing which is Mike Whispers promising 'Early Bird' system.
Take care y'all
Monday, July 31, 2006
Predator Update
Looking for an update on Predator? ok.
The two weeks after the first astonishing week did just about what i expected it to - buggar all :)
well, when i say buggar all in week 2 it lost 103 pips over the 6 pairs
in week 3 it won 132 pips
anyway, still thinking that there is something in this - even if it can do a few hundred pips a month on average then it's worth doing.
Well, i don't know about you but i'm about knackered with testing - sick to death of it so I needed an incentive.
What better incentive than to put some money into it?
Myself and Mike Keres have both put five grand each into a metatrader 4 account with Mig investments of Switzerland. The account is denominated in US dollars so we actually got $18,769 ish to play with. (which i thought was an excellent rate by the way)
so, while we got this up and running Trevor and me got to work on the trading robot that would drive this thing.
Trevor is a lot like me. People told him similar things like 'you'll never be anything whilst you've got a hole in your arse pal'.
Well, if they ever read this guess what, both Trevor and me still have holes in our arses and we both make more money than you ever dreamt of so shove that up your ring and suck on it. :)
anyway, i digress.
So, weve funded the account, perfected the robot to trade it and yesterday (Sunday) afternoon it was switched on ready for the new week to start.
It took it's first trade a little after 1am this morning and by the time i had got up it was 70 pips for the better.
so far so good, but one swallow doesnt make a summer.
This robot takes literally lots and lots of trades - around 50 - 100 a day across the six pairs we have tested so far. The settings for each pair are different and rely on two indicators specifically written for the job. No, they arent available in a moneytec lucky bag:)
So, the reason I and Mike have put money into this is that we just cannot be bothered anymore testing without something at risk.
Intially we are risking just 0.1 lot per pair per trade - one pairs where the usd is the second pair, such as EURUSD or AUDUSD then 0.1 lot = 1 dollar per pip - on the others such as usdjpy it's less like 0.78 per pip.
Ok, so we have many things to test.
For example does it make money? is it best to switch off during european trading? what are the real drawdowns like? what kind of staking plan can we use?
All of these i may or may not discuss on here in the next few weeks so if you are interested in seeing how a method of entry and exit changes into a proper system then check back now and again. Finding a method that makes money is only a fraction of the story in systems development, it's what you do with it after that which will make or break you.
It's important to say at this point that this might just turn to shit - the 10k we have put in there is fun money - i cant see this strategy losing the lot but then you never know - instead of seeing a trading system born you might see yet another one turn to complete shite :)
Ill publish the statement at the end of the month - maybe week
The two weeks after the first astonishing week did just about what i expected it to - buggar all :)
well, when i say buggar all in week 2 it lost 103 pips over the 6 pairs
in week 3 it won 132 pips
anyway, still thinking that there is something in this - even if it can do a few hundred pips a month on average then it's worth doing.
Well, i don't know about you but i'm about knackered with testing - sick to death of it so I needed an incentive.
What better incentive than to put some money into it?
Myself and Mike Keres have both put five grand each into a metatrader 4 account with Mig investments of Switzerland. The account is denominated in US dollars so we actually got $18,769 ish to play with. (which i thought was an excellent rate by the way)
so, while we got this up and running Trevor and me got to work on the trading robot that would drive this thing.
Trevor is a lot like me. People told him similar things like 'you'll never be anything whilst you've got a hole in your arse pal'.
Well, if they ever read this guess what, both Trevor and me still have holes in our arses and we both make more money than you ever dreamt of so shove that up your ring and suck on it. :)
anyway, i digress.
So, weve funded the account, perfected the robot to trade it and yesterday (Sunday) afternoon it was switched on ready for the new week to start.
It took it's first trade a little after 1am this morning and by the time i had got up it was 70 pips for the better.
so far so good, but one swallow doesnt make a summer.
This robot takes literally lots and lots of trades - around 50 - 100 a day across the six pairs we have tested so far. The settings for each pair are different and rely on two indicators specifically written for the job. No, they arent available in a moneytec lucky bag:)
So, the reason I and Mike have put money into this is that we just cannot be bothered anymore testing without something at risk.
Intially we are risking just 0.1 lot per pair per trade - one pairs where the usd is the second pair, such as EURUSD or AUDUSD then 0.1 lot = 1 dollar per pip - on the others such as usdjpy it's less like 0.78 per pip.
Ok, so we have many things to test.
For example does it make money? is it best to switch off during european trading? what are the real drawdowns like? what kind of staking plan can we use?
All of these i may or may not discuss on here in the next few weeks so if you are interested in seeing how a method of entry and exit changes into a proper system then check back now and again. Finding a method that makes money is only a fraction of the story in systems development, it's what you do with it after that which will make or break you.
It's important to say at this point that this might just turn to shit - the 10k we have put in there is fun money - i cant see this strategy losing the lot but then you never know - instead of seeing a trading system born you might see yet another one turn to complete shite :)
Ill publish the statement at the end of the month - maybe week
Saturday, July 15, 2006
Predator is born!
Hi all, thought i'd just make some comments - been a week or so since ive posted so i thought i'd let you know what i've been up to.
Over the past three months ive been refining and testing a new trading system. - it's purely mechanical which is suprising because it does use indicators and i always had the belief that it was virtually impossible to build a mechanical system which used indicators. even more so I didnt believe in automatic trading.
Anyway, to cut a long story short I fell onto this system by accident. Ive slowly been testing an indicator for a while now based on a single setting - it was looking good to produce prob 80-100 pips a week which is good in my eyes.
Just on a side note to tell you that with mechanical systems my nirvana is around 100 pips a week with a low drawdown. I thought if i could make that then it would be a great system to sit aside Grail.
Well, that nirvana i think was a limiting belief - i didnt think it was possible to build a mechanical system that did much more than that and i guess that may have held me back in the past.
That belief has now been not only broken, but smashed into pieces.
During my testing i thought it would be much easier in the interim to have an mt4 expert to backtest the system so i could do many calculations before hand testing. so, thanks to Fluty, Trevor and Myself the 'Predator 'expert was born.
After a few tests which looked ok i wondered just how many different parameters i could get the backtester to test - so into the code i went and placed code so that i could do just that.
when i ran this test the number of combinations was around 117,000. I have a fast pc but even then it was to take over 7 days to do the test.
Well, when the test completed i couldnt believe the results, they were amazing.
Now i know what you are thinking, ive seen many backtests which look great and turn to crap when you run them - ive seen them too.
I can remember an expert called AIP (alwaysinplay) that did millions in the backtest but when you ran it live crashed your account quicker than an israeli retalliation.
So, when i'd optimised this and put it on seven pairs on a demo account i believed it would crash and burn.
It didnt,
well, not yet anyway.
Ive only ran it for a week so this isnt a good enough sample size but get these results
account started at $10,000
186 trades taken
155 wins
31 losses
win percentage 81.87%
Overall Pips Gained 534
Cash gained $6133.41
Gain on account 61.3%
Now ths looks pretty damn good i'm sure you will agree but i guess time will tell. Nevertheless I am swiftly opening an MT4 account to trade this with some real money and i'll keep you updated with the results from the test until the live account is open.
ps, before anyone thinks this is some slick marketing - it's not for sale nor will it ever be.
keep tuned in :)
Over the past three months ive been refining and testing a new trading system. - it's purely mechanical which is suprising because it does use indicators and i always had the belief that it was virtually impossible to build a mechanical system which used indicators. even more so I didnt believe in automatic trading.
Anyway, to cut a long story short I fell onto this system by accident. Ive slowly been testing an indicator for a while now based on a single setting - it was looking good to produce prob 80-100 pips a week which is good in my eyes.
Just on a side note to tell you that with mechanical systems my nirvana is around 100 pips a week with a low drawdown. I thought if i could make that then it would be a great system to sit aside Grail.
Well, that nirvana i think was a limiting belief - i didnt think it was possible to build a mechanical system that did much more than that and i guess that may have held me back in the past.
That belief has now been not only broken, but smashed into pieces.
During my testing i thought it would be much easier in the interim to have an mt4 expert to backtest the system so i could do many calculations before hand testing. so, thanks to Fluty, Trevor and Myself the 'Predator 'expert was born.
After a few tests which looked ok i wondered just how many different parameters i could get the backtester to test - so into the code i went and placed code so that i could do just that.
when i ran this test the number of combinations was around 117,000. I have a fast pc but even then it was to take over 7 days to do the test.
Well, when the test completed i couldnt believe the results, they were amazing.
Now i know what you are thinking, ive seen many backtests which look great and turn to crap when you run them - ive seen them too.
I can remember an expert called AIP (alwaysinplay) that did millions in the backtest but when you ran it live crashed your account quicker than an israeli retalliation.
So, when i'd optimised this and put it on seven pairs on a demo account i believed it would crash and burn.
It didnt,
well, not yet anyway.
Ive only ran it for a week so this isnt a good enough sample size but get these results
account started at $10,000
186 trades taken
155 wins
31 losses
win percentage 81.87%
Overall Pips Gained 534
Cash gained $6133.41
Gain on account 61.3%
Now ths looks pretty damn good i'm sure you will agree but i guess time will tell. Nevertheless I am swiftly opening an MT4 account to trade this with some real money and i'll keep you updated with the results from the test until the live account is open.
ps, before anyone thinks this is some slick marketing - it's not for sale nor will it ever be.
keep tuned in :)
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
Do you want to learn to trade?
Hi, long time no write :)
Just thought i would let you know about a great service that's aimed at helping you to learn to trade.
It's basically a chatroom, but much more than that.
During the day several forex traders from around the globe are in this room showing examples of trades they take and making calls live as it happens.
It is not just a signals service - these guys actually train you how to trade.
It's ran by a friend of mine in New York and occasionally I plan to do some training sessions myself in there also in which i will focus on systems development and psychology issues in your path to being a trader. At the moment i myself am not in there much but the guys who are training are good.
The great thing about the room is that it uses real time voice and also features constant screenshots that the traders use to show exactly what they are looking at.
They dont just say - ok, im going long cable here - they actually explain as the trade is setting up what they are looking at and why they are considering a trade.
I dont get paid for this before you think - 'oh, this is a scam' but you should know that after 10 day trial period there is a charge OR you use one of their brokers to trade so they get the kickback which then means you get the fees back as a refund from the brokers.
Im plugging this on here for two reasons. 1. cos my mate is running it and i think this is a great thing he's doing and 2. the trading and information that goes on in there is in my opinion priceless.
I think that you will think the same. You can sign up for a 10 day trial anyway with no cost at all and see what you think, so there's nothing to lose.
check out the website at www.radiantforex.com and tell em soul sent you :)
Just thought i would let you know about a great service that's aimed at helping you to learn to trade.
It's basically a chatroom, but much more than that.
During the day several forex traders from around the globe are in this room showing examples of trades they take and making calls live as it happens.
It is not just a signals service - these guys actually train you how to trade.
It's ran by a friend of mine in New York and occasionally I plan to do some training sessions myself in there also in which i will focus on systems development and psychology issues in your path to being a trader. At the moment i myself am not in there much but the guys who are training are good.
The great thing about the room is that it uses real time voice and also features constant screenshots that the traders use to show exactly what they are looking at.
They dont just say - ok, im going long cable here - they actually explain as the trade is setting up what they are looking at and why they are considering a trade.
I dont get paid for this before you think - 'oh, this is a scam' but you should know that after 10 day trial period there is a charge OR you use one of their brokers to trade so they get the kickback which then means you get the fees back as a refund from the brokers.
Im plugging this on here for two reasons. 1. cos my mate is running it and i think this is a great thing he's doing and 2. the trading and information that goes on in there is in my opinion priceless.
I think that you will think the same. You can sign up for a 10 day trial anyway with no cost at all and see what you think, so there's nothing to lose.
check out the website at www.radiantforex.com and tell em soul sent you :)
Thursday, June 01, 2006
Saturday, May 06, 2006
Day Trading ends!!
Hi all,
Wanted to take some time out this morning and have a chat with you all, this might be a long post and it might be the last one ever.
As of this week I have ceased to be an active day trader.
Yes, you read right - I'm giving up 'active' day trading.
I now run three separate accounts using the grail system developed by myself and Mike, my partner.
One account (the main one) is the million pound experiment account which you have been reading about in the grailtrading blog. This will continue to its target which should mature at the end of 2007 or thereabouts. What a nice Christmas present that will be.
The second account is what I call my income grail account. This account does not compound but plays the grail system in exactly the same way as the main account with the difference that money is taken out of the account on a regular basis. Basically every £4000 invested into the account returns around £1000 per month in income and this will be my 'wage packet' for the foreseeable future.
So, why after all this time am I giving up day trading and what advice can I offer for aspiring traders?
When I say I'm giving up 'active' day trading that does not mean I'm giving up day trading altogether. Grail in itself is a day trading system. By 'active' day trading this is what I mean.
For the past 5 years I've been an active day trader. Using indicators, multiple timeframes and multiple currencies etc. I sat there all day long waiting for the right setup and I placed my trades and took my profits or losses as we all do. Day in day out sat in front of 5 monitors getting a tan from the radiation given out :)
Five years is a long time in this game, most don't make longer than six months and disappear without trace. After five years I'm tired of the constant up and downs of the job. When you are hot you take four steps forward and one step back soon to be propelled forward again. When you're cold you step four steps forward and five steps back getting nowhere. Day trading using an indicator lead system is like this all the time as all indicators can ever tell you is what has already happened. That's not to say I think indicators are useless, far from it, used properly they give you an increased probability that your chosen direction will be the right one.
The problem with this style of day trading is that its so bloody frustrating and this takes it's toll on you, I'm not prepared to go through that anymore.
The grail system that we use is easy, no indicators apart from price, no discretion and no real heartache. it either wins or it loses and the wins are more than the losers, simple as that. My edge with this system is only around 5% so I have around 55% winners - it only actually equates to around 8-12 pips per day on average and you may think to yourself ';whoopee doo' 8-12 pips is chicken feed. but let me ask you this, do you have a system that takes 8-12 pips a day on average EVERY DAY - by taking EVERY TRADE that your system shows? - chances are that it does not and if it does then ill join you in Monte Carlo for a beer one day soon.
The city of Las Vegas has been built on a 1% edge. That's right - there is on average only a 1% edge in a casino and of course that is in the house's favour. so please don't scoff at grail's constant 5% :)
So that's that, as of now I'm no longer a day trader, swing trader or position trader as defined by most traders definition.
So why bother reading this anymore?
Every now and again I come up with some pearls of wisdom that I like to give, so the blog will continue albeit on a very sporadic schedule.
I'm going to start by giving my opinion about how you can get yourself to the stage where you give up day trading too. Now you think that I'm going to sell you something, and nothing could be father from the truth. Ive stopped selling systems totally and I'm not about to start again, the hassle from assholes like baruch and others who couldn't trade for toffee just isn't worth it. These guys won't be able to make money whilst ever they have a hole in their arse.
I'm going to give you the secret to making it in this game of Forex. In my opinion anyway.
First of all you need to dedicate at least 10 hours a day to the market. What's more you need to do this for two years at least using indicator led systems. You need to lose money, win money and lose it again. You need to go on this never ending cycle until you give up Forex.
The reason for this is that I have to tell you the only way to keep your sanity and make it in Forex is to have a completely mechanical system that wins more money than it loses.
That's simple to say you may think but you really need to read that again. The only way to make it in Forex is with a completely mechanical system that wins more money than it loses.
Here's your problem though. You are human, you have thoughts and processes going on in your head that completely stop you from following a completely mechanical system until you are really really pissed off with trading.
Up until that point you think that the superior intellect of the human race (debatable) can make decisions based on factors of news, char patterns, indicators, gut feeling etc etc. You get excited by trading, your pupils dilate when you have a winning trade the same way they do when you see an attractive member of the opposite sex. You enjoy taking the risk and see it as a 'sexy' way to earn a living. even if you don't think you have discretion you do - your mind automatically want to play and have some fun.
You are drawn to the market and you don't see that you're losing money, you see that if you get this right you can make more money than you ever thought possible - no-one to stop you in this free universe apart from your own creativity.
and herein lies the problem. As a human being you are programmed to solve problems - constantly. this in-built problem solving subconscious stops you from following a completely mechanical system and as such stops you making money.
Because your trades have discretion in them you cannot consistently repeat the same thing over and over again and I don't care what you say, anyone that uses indicators to trade does not have a completely mechanical system. You may say that you do and you have that right - but let me ask you the following based on hat you consider to be your 'completely mechanical system'
1. Do you have very precise rules for entry and exit of a trade? and I mean precise.
2 Do you take every single trade which meets the rules mentioned above no matter whether news is due, there's been an earthquake, or NFP has just come out 20 seconds ago?
3 Do you EVER hang onto a trade longer than your system tells you to or close out before your system says so?
you know what the answers should be. Yes, Yes and No
Basically what I'm saying is that you should spend your first two to three years in Forex trading as every other newbie does. Test systems to the hilt, use discretion, swing trade, use 1 min charts, use 4 hour charts etc etc - really explore the market and get to know it.
One day you will realise one thing.
You cannot make money discretionary trading with enough consistency!
Sure, you will have good runs, and then you'll have bad runs, you might get to a break even point where you are trading but making nothing and losing nothing but until you really really get bored and pissed off you will not develop your own Grail system.
The only way to be successful in Forex is to have a 100% discretion free mechanical system which gives you an edge.
After about 3 years you will get so demoralised by the market and bored that you begin to look at ways of NOT to trade. That's what a truly mechanical system is. You don't 'trade' in the real sense of the word in that you aren't looking at charts and studying fastidiously. you will look and develop a system of trading where you have no decisions to make whatsoever. You enter and exit every trade exactly to the pip and your head never even has to think about it.
You win and lose with no emotional content because you know (through testing see below) it will make money, hell you don't even check the charts when your trade is in.
To get to this point you will have gone through 3 years of hell suffering stress and loss of belief in yourself but you'll also have had a lot of fun and learned a terrific amount.
Then comes the rewards.
If you are at the stage where you want to give up trading after 2-3 years then well done. you are at the point where you could really make a breakthrough. If you still enjoy the up and down world of day trading then you aren't here yet. When you are really ready to throw in the towel come back and read this again before you do..
you need to work on a system that uses nothing which could in the slightest way offer discretion. You need to test it and test it and test it again, optimise it constantly spend your whole working time working on this one system till you have either proved it works or proved it does not. Your objective should be to prove that it does not work.
I reckon that to properly test a system it needs a good 3 years of data which is HAND tested - sure, use wealth lab or another test engine initially but then when you find one that looks promising TEST IT BY HAND, try every different parameter you can and TEST BY HAND EVERY TIME.
I reckon that to test a system properly takes about 6 months of full time work, that's about how long it took us to develop grail and since that time we have spent additional hundreds of hours in testing different parameters, different pairs, different timeframes etc etc etc - to test a system, a single system, could take you years to check every variable!
We now have a system which we believe (and tests support that belief) will make us multi millionaires in a few short years.
This blog will remain here but wont be added to much at all, if you would like to see our progress then check the grailtrading blog every month - that's where the real action is.
I, like you went through emotional hell to get this far and now have secured a very prosperous future (according to the tests and the results so far)
Was it worth it ... you decide.
For those who can see the diamonds planted in this page - see you in Monte Carlo one day :)
From The Desk Of ...
Soultrader
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Thanks for your reply, you have given me plenty of information to digest.
No worries :)
An issue I'm struggling with at the moment is finding a viable way of determining if my system does actually put the odds in my favour. My strategy is nothing flash, 34,55&200 MA for trend, S&R and reading candlesticks on 30min and 1hour. I either trade the breakout or trade the bounce. I use metatrader and have an account with IG index (who i hate but have yet to find better - recommendations of brokers would be greatly appreciated).
Because my system is largely based on identifying S&R and candlestick reversals etc it is hard to back test the data due to not having a clue how to actually transfer all this info into excel. As you say how can i repeat a gut feeling of where i deem a Support or Resistance line is identically correctly placed in a future scenario?
However you have presented me with an interesting theory, 1 that could definitely make my life easier and completely remove the discretion from my decision making process....
Theoretically, i should just scrap everything I've learnt this past year with S&R and candles etc, find a dumbass MA crossover strategy (which i always hated the thought of because of the sheer no brains simplicity of it), play with the MA's, stops and profit limits and backtest until i find the best probability and just trade away blindly to probability success.
Is it really that simple? Is that the holy grail? Am I talking gold dust or just crap?
Your time and thoughts into this are greatly appreciated.
Peter
thanks again